ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
MKM Stadium
Referee: S. Martin
Hull City
Match Timeline
Birmingham
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
J. Gelhardt
Hull City
🟨
29'
Paddy McNair
Hull City
🔄
50'
B. Osayi-Samuel ↔ E. Laird
Birmingham
🟨
55'
Semi Ajayi
Hull City
🟨
55'
Jay Stansfield
Birmingham
🔄
63'
I. Osman ↔ D. Gray
Birmingham
🔄
63'
J. Stansfield ↔ M. Ducksch
Birmingham
🟨
67'
Joe Gelhardt
Hull City
🔄
75'
J. Gelhardt ↔ K. Dowell
Hull City
🔄
75'
L. Millar ↔ L. Koumas
Hull City
77'
T. Iwata
Birmingham
🔄
83'
P. McNair ↔ R. Giles
Hull City
🔄
83'
M. Belloumi ↔ Y. Hirakawa
Hull City
🟨
85'
Kieran Dowell
Hull City
🟨
86'
Demarai Gray
Birmingham
🔄
87'
A. Hadziahmetovic ↔ K. Joseph
Hull City
🟨
88'
Phil Neumann
Birmingham
🟨
90+8'
Marvin Ducksch
Birmingham
🔄
90+5'
C. Vicente ↔ Paik Seung-Ho
Birmingham
🔄
90+5'
A. Priske ↔ A. Cochrane
Birmingham

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Hull City Win 71.7%
Draw 7%
Birmingham Win 21.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hull City1.37
Birmingham1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hull City Hull City
WWDLW
64 GF / 64 GA
Birmingham Birmingham
WLDWL
55 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
26
BTTS Yes
24
28
Over 2.5
20
4.02
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hull City Hull City 44 matches
Birmingham Birmingham 44 matches
Hull City Statistic Birmingham
20 Wins 16
9 Draws 12
15 Losses 16
64 Goals For 55
64 Goals Against 55
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
26 BTTS Yes 24
33 Over 1.5 34
28 Over 2.5 20
17 Over 3.5 9
12 Clean Sheets 10
10 Failed To Score 11
4.02 Shots On Goal 4.07
11.25 Total Shots 13.66
4.59 Corners 5.77
45.3% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Hull City's more proactive style and Birmingham's more cautious structure. Hull City appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Birmingham. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Birmingham. Hull City arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 68 points compared to Birmingham in 15 on 56, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Birmingham arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Hull City Analysis

From their first 42 matches, Hull City have collected 68 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 20 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 64:60 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Oliver McBurnie (14 goals), J. Gelhardt (13 goals), K. Joseph (8 goals), with creative support from R. Giles (8 assists), Oliver McBurnie (7 assists), K. Joseph (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. Although they are without A. Famewo, R. Giles, Y. Hirakawa, J. Lundstram, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Birmingham Analysis

With 56 points from 42 games and a place of 15, Birmingham still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 15 wins, 11 draws, and 16 defeats with a 51:52 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Ducksch (10 goals), J. Stansfield (9 goals), D. Gray (5 goals), with creative support from J. Stansfield (6 assists), D. Gray (4 assists), P. Roberts (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with L. Buchanan, A. Cochrane unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Hull City won 6 times, Birmingham won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:18 from Hull City's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Hull City 4-2-3-1 / Birmingham 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Hull City 6, Birmingham 2
H2H summary: Hull City wins 6, draws 6, Birmingham wins 3
Stats
Hull City Hull City
Birmingham Birmingham
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 6
9 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 2
9 Shots insidebox 5
5 Shots outsidebox 6
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
291 Total passes 370
178 Passes accurate 272
0.93 expected_goals 0.45
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Hull City
Formation
Birmingham
I. Pandur
I. Pandur
L. Coyle
L. Coyle
S. Ajayi
S. Ajayi
J. Egan
J. Egan
P. McNair
P. McNair
A. Hadziahmetovic
A. Hadziahmetovic
M. Crooks
M. Crooks
M. Belloumi
M. Belloumi
J. Gelhardt
J. Gelhardt
L. Millar
L. Millar
O. McBurnie
O. McBurnie
J. Beadle
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
C. Klarer
K. Wagner
K. Wagner
J. E. Solis Romero
J. E. Solis Romero
T. Iwata
T. Iwata
C. Vicente
C. Vicente
J. Stansfield
J. Stansfield
I. Osman
I. Osman
A. Priske
A. Priske
Hull City 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
I. Pandur
G
2
L. Coyle
D
6
S. Ajayi
🟨 55'
D
15
J. Egan
D
37
P. McNair
↓ 83' 🟨 29'
D
20
A. Hadziahmetovic
↓ 87'
M
25
M. Crooks
M
10
M. Belloumi
↓ 83'
M
21
J. Gelhardt
⚽ 24' ↓ 75' 🟨 67'
M
7
L. Millar
↓ 75'
M
9
O. McBurnie
F
Substitutes
12
D. Phillips
G
4
C. Hughes
D
26
K. Dowell
↑ 75' 🟨 85'
M
23
A. Famewo
D
3
R. Giles
↑ 83'
D
8
E. Matazo
M
22
K. Joseph
↑ 87'
F
36
L. Koumas
↑ 75'
F
13
Y. Hirakawa
↑ 83'
F
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
J. Beadle
G
26
B. Osayi-Samuel
↓ 50'
D
5
P. Neumann
🟨 88'
D
4
C. Klarer
D
31
K. Wagner
D
14
J. E. Solis Romero
M
24
T. Iwata
⚽ 77'
M
23
C. Vicente
↓ 90+5'
M
28
J. Stansfield
↓ 63' 🟨 55'
M
17
I. Osman
↓ 63'
M
29
A. Priske
↓ 90+5'
F
Substitutes
21
R. Allsop
G
10
D. Gray
↑ 63' 🟨 86'
F
7
T. Doyle
M
6
J. Robinson
D
33
M. Ducksch
↑ 63' 🟨 90+8'
F
16
P. Roberts
M
8
Paik Seung-Ho
↑ 90+5'
M
20
A. Cochrane
↑ 90+5'
D
2
E. Laird
↑ 50'
D
Last matches: Hull City
25.07.26
Fri
Hull City
Konyaspor
3
0
W
23.05.26
Cha
Hull City
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
11.05.26
Cha
Hull City
Millwall
2
0
W
08.05.26
Cha
Hull City
Millwall
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Hull City
Norwich
2
1
W
25.04.26
Cha
Hull City
Charlton
1
2
L
21.04.26
Cha
Hull City
Leicester
2
2
D
11.04.26
Cha
Hull City
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Hull City
Coventry
0
0
D
03.04.26
Cha
Hull City
Oxford United
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cha
Hull City
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
Hull City
West Brom
0
3
L
10.03.26
Cha
Hull City
Wrexham
2
1
W
07.03.26
Cha
Hull City
Millwall
1
3
L
03.03.26
Cha
Hull City
Ipswich
0
1
L
28.02.26
Cha
Hull City
Portsmouth
1
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Hull City
Derby
4
2
W
21.02.26
Cha
Hull City
QPR
1
3
L
13.02.26
FA
Hull City
Chelsea
0
4
L
07.02.26
Cha
Hull City
Bristol City
2
3
L
Last matches: Birmingham
25.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Crewe
2
1
W
22.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Burton Albion
1
0
W
15.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Solihull Moors
3
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Huddersfield
3
1
W
02.05.26
Cha
Birmingham
Portsmouth
1
1
D
25.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Bristol City
2
1
W
22.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Preston
2
1
W
12.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Wrexham
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Ipswich
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Blackburn
0
1
L
21.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Derby
0
1
L
14.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Utd
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
QPR
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Charlton
0
1
L
02.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
1
3
L
25.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Millwall
0
3
L
21.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Norwich
2
1
W
15.02.26
FA
Birmingham
Leeds
1
1
D
10.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
West Brom
0
0
D
07.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Leicester
2
1
W
H2H: Hull City vs Birmingham
18.04.26
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
18.10.25
H2H
Birmingham
Hull City
2
3
W
05.03.24
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
16.01.24
H2H
Birmingham
Hull City
2
1
L
06.01.24
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
25.10.23
H2H
Birmingham
Hull City
0
2
W
30.12.22
H2H
Birmingham
Hull City
0
1
W
16.10.22
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
0
2
L
12.03.22
H2H
Birmingham
Hull City
0
0
D
20.11.21
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
2
0
W
27.06.20
H2H
Birmingham
Hull City
3
3
D
21.12.19
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
3
0
W
02.03.19
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
2
0
W
10.11.18
H2H
Birmingham
Hull City
3
3
D
17.03.18
H2H
Birmingham
Hull City
3
0
L
Last matches: Hull City
23.05.26
Cha
Hull City
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
08.05.26
Cha
Hull City
Millwall
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Hull City
Norwich
2
1
W
06.04.26
Cha
Hull City
Coventry
0
0
D
21.03.26
Cha
Hull City
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
07.03.26
Cha
Hull City
Millwall
1
3
L
24.02.26
Cha
Hull City
Derby
4
2
W
21.02.26
Cha
Hull City
QPR
1
3
L
13.02.26
FA
Hull City
Chelsea
0
4
L
07.02.26
Cha
Hull City
Bristol City
2
3
L
03.02.26
Cha
Hull City
Watford
0
0
D
24.01.26
Cha
Hull City
Swansea
2
1
W
11.01.26
FA
Hull City
Blackburn
0
0
D
01.01.26
Cha
Hull City
Stoke City
0
1
L
20.12.25
Cha
Hull City
West Brom
1
0
W
10.12.25
Cha
Hull City
Wrexham
2
0
W
05.12.25
Cha
Hull City
Middlesbrough
1
4
L
25.11.25
Cha
Hull City
Ipswich
0
2
L
08.11.25
Cha
Hull City
Portsmouth
3
2
W
25.10.25
Cha
Hull City
Charlton
1
1
D
H2H at home: Hull City
18.04.26
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
05.03.24
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
06.01.24
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
16.10.22
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
0
2
L
20.11.21
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
2
0
W
21.12.19
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
3
0
W
02.03.19
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
2
0
W
Last matches: Birmingham
25.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Crewe
2
1
W
22.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Burton Albion
1
0
W
15.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Solihull Moors
3
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Birmingham
Portsmouth
1
1
D
06.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Ipswich
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Derby
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Charlton
0
1
L
25.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Millwall
0
3
L
21.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Norwich
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Oxford United
2
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
17.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Swansea
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Birmingham
Cambridge United
3
2
W
01.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Watford
0
3
L
20.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Utd
0
3
L
09.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
QPR
1
2
L
06.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
Southampton
1
3
L
26.11.25
Cha
Birmingham
West Brom
1
1
D
08.11.25
Cha
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
25.10.25
Cha
Birmingham
Bristol City
0
1
L
H2H away: Birmingham
18.04.26
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
05.03.24
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
06.01.24
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
1
1
D
16.10.22
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
0
2
W
20.11.21
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
2
0
L
21.12.19
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
3
0
L
02.03.19
H2H
Hull City
Birmingham
2
0
L

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Hull City 6 missing
-
A. Famewo
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
R. Giles
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Y. Hirakawa
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
E. Matazo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
R. Slater
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
J. Lundstram
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
Birmingham 2 missing
-
L. Buchanan
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Cochrane
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT