GERMANY 3. LIGA
25.04.2026 12:00
Dietmar-Hopp Stadion
Referee: F. Grund
Hoffenheim II
Match Timeline
FC Ingolstadt 04
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
J. Scholz · Assist: Y. Deichmann
FC Ingolstadt 04
18'
M. Costly · Assist: D. Kaygin
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
31'
A. Hlozek ↔ F. Micheler
Hoffenheim II
32'
M. Costly · Assist: F. Carlsen
FC Ingolstadt 04
🟨
49'
Luis Engelns
Hoffenheim II
🟨
66'
Luka Duric
Hoffenheim II
🟨
72'
Florian Bähr
Hoffenheim II
🔄
73'
Y. Deichmann ↔ L. Rosenlocher
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
77'
P. Hennrich ↔ O. Hencke
Hoffenheim II
🔄
77'
K. Frees ↔ T. Spranger
Hoffenheim II
🔄
77'
Y. Eduardo ↔ J. Fields
Hoffenheim II
🔄
81'
M. Besuschkow ↔ M. Plath
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
81'
Y. Sturm ↔ E. Kehrer
FC Ingolstadt 04
🟨
84'
Simon Lorenz
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
85'
M. Costly ↔ J. Kugel
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
85'
S. Lorenz ↔ L. Frode
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
86'
L. Engelns ↔ J. T. Poller
Hoffenheim II

Hoffenheim II vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Hoffenheim II Win 7.7%
Draw 23.9%
FC Ingolstadt 04 Win 68.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hoffenheim II1.65
FC Ingolstadt 041.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II
WWDLW
61 GF / 62 GA
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04
WLDWL
52 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
26
BTTS Yes
25
24
Over 2.5
23
4.79
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 34 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04 34 matches
Hoffenheim II Statistic FC Ingolstadt 04
11 Wins 10
7 Draws 10
16 Losses 14
61 Goals For 52
62 Goals Against 49
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
26 BTTS Yes 25
29 Over 1.5 27
24 Over 2.5 23
21 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 6
4.79 Shots On Goal 4.11
11.43 Total Shots 11.75
3.5 Corners 3.75
47.4% Ball Possession 42.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Hoffenheim II expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Ingolstadt 04 in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Ingolstadt 04 having the stronger overall control. FC Ingolstadt 04 arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward FC Ingolstadt 04.

Hoffenheim II Analysis

Hoffenheim II sit 15 with 40 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 60:59, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Zeitler (15 goals), A. Amaimouni (9 goals), L. Duric (9 goals), with creative support from L. Duric (8 assists), A. Amaimouni (5 assists), Luca Erlein (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

FC Ingolstadt 04 Analysis

FC Ingolstadt 04 approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 40 points from 34 matches. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 10 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 52:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Costly (13 goals), Dennis Kaygın (7 goals), Y. Sturm (6 goals), with creative support from M. Costly (8 assists), F. Carlsen (6 assists), M. Besuschkow (6 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Hoffenheim II won 0 times, FC Ingolstadt 04 won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:6 from Hoffenheim II's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Hoffenheim II 4-2-3-1 / FC Ingolstadt 04 3-4-3
H2H summary: Hoffenheim II wins 0, draws 0, FC Ingolstadt 04 wins 2

Standings

3. Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 8 6 66:34 32 80
W D W W W
2 38 21 9 8 72:51 21 72
W W L W W
3 38 20 10 8 78:66 12 70
W W L L L
4 38 19 11 8 66:49 17 68
D D W L W
5 38 18 13 7 74:49 25 67
W W D L D
6 38 18 10 10 82:48 34 64
W L W L W
7 38 19 7 12 76:57 19 64
W W D W W
8 38 15 11 12 54:53 1 56
L L D W D
9 38 15 8 15 54:52 2 53
W L L D D
10 38 15 7 16 59:72 -13 52
L W L D D
11 38 15 6 17 51:53 -2 51
D L W L L
12 38 13 10 15 65:56 9 49
W W L W L
13 38 14 7 17 54:58 -4 49
L L W W L
14 38 13 7 18 57:69 -12 46
L L W L D
15 38 10 14 14 51:57 -6 44
L L W W D
16 38 12 7 19 65:71 -6 43
L W L L L
17 38 9 8 21 57:89 -32 35
L W L W L
18 38 7 13 18 51:70 -19 34
W D W D D
19 38 9 6 23 49:78 -29 33
L D L L W
20 38 5 6 27 38:87 -49 21
L L D D D
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation