CROATIA › HNL
21.04.2026 16:45
Stadion Poljud
Referee: I. Pajac
HNK Hajduk Split
Match Timeline
NK Osijek
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Michele Šego
HNK Hajduk Split
⚽
56'
V. Bubanja · Assist: D. M. Mejia Moscoso
NK Osijek
🔄
64'
S. Hrgovic ↔ D. Melnjak
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
64'
R. Brajkovic ↔ I. Almena
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
71'
A. Jakupovic ↔ I. Baric
NK Osijek
🔄
71'
N. Omerovic ↔ S. Akere
NK Osijek
🔄
72'
N. Skoko ↔ A. Guram
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
78'
A. Pajaziti ↔ H. Guillamon
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
78'
A. Rebic ↔ B. Durdov
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
82'
D. Bukvic ↔ S. Mikolcic
NK Osijek
🔄
82'
D. M. Mejia Moscoso ↔ L. Vrbancic
NK Osijek
🟨
87'
David Čolina
NK Osijek
🟨
90+1'
Luka Vrbančić
NK Osijek
🔄
90+2'
O. Petrusenko ↔ J. Mersinaj
NK Osijek

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
58.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HNK Hajduk Split Win 80.7%
Draw 0%
NK Osijek Win 19.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Hajduk Split1.61
NK Osijek0.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
WWDLW
57 GF / 34 GA
NK Osijek NK Osijek
WLDWL
24 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
17
BTTS Yes
11
17
Over 2.5
11
4.91
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split 34 matches
NK Osijek NK Osijek 30 matches
HNK Hajduk Split Statistic NK Osijek
20 Wins 6
7 Draws 10
7 Losses 14
57 Goals For 24
34 Goals Against 45
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
17 BTTS Yes 11
29 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 6
13 Clean Sheets 12
5 Failed To Score 13
4.91 Shots On Goal 3.17
13.47 Total Shots 11.43
4.88 Corners 4.37
52% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HNK Hajduk Split expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and NK Osijek in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward NK Osijek having the stronger overall control. HNK Hajduk Split arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 60 points compared to NK Osijek in 9 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward NK Osijek. HNK Hajduk Split come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

HNK Hajduk Split Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 60 points after 30 outings. With 18 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of -:-, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Sego (11 goals), Marko Livaja (9 goals), Rokas Pukštas (8 goals), with creative support from Marko Livaja (5 assists), A. Rebic (5 assists), M. Sego (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show a balanced approach.

NK Osijek Analysis

So far, NK Osijek have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 28 points from 30 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses with goals at -:- reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Nail Omerović (8 goals), A. Jakupovic (3 goals), L. Jelenic (3 goals), with creative support from D. Colina (3 assists), S. Mikolcic (2 assists), Roko Jurišić (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a balanced approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Hajduk Split won 9 times, NK Osijek won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:10 from HNK Hajduk Split's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1 / NK Osijek 3-4-3
H2H summary: HNK Hajduk Split wins 9, draws 2, NK Osijek wins 4

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 93:28 65 86
D W W W W
2 36 20 8 8 61:36 25 68
W D L W D
3 36 15 9 12 47:46 1 54
W W D L L
4 36 14 11 11 49:36 13 53
W D W W D
5 36 10 14 12 40:52 -12 44
D D D L D
6 36 12 7 17 39:50 -11 43
L D W W L
7 36 10 11 15 46:61 -15 41
L L W L D
8 36 11 8 17 40:48 -8 41
L W L L W
9 36 8 11 17 27:49 -22 35
W L L L D
10 36 6 10 20 37:73 -36 28
L L L W D
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Relegation