SENEGAL LIGUE 1
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 33.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 64.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
33.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
64.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
82.6%
-
Probability Distribution
HLM Win 30.3%
Draw 33.1%
Stade de Mbour Win 36.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
HLM0.6
Stade de Mbour0.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
HLM HLM
WWDLW
12 GF / 18 GA
Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour
WLDWL
13 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.55
Average Goals Scored
0.59
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
0.68
6
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HLM HLM 22 matches
Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour 22 matches
HLM Statistic Stade de Mbour
3 Wins 3
14 Draws 14
5 Losses 5
12 Goals For 13
18 Goals Against 15
0.55 Avg Goals Scored 0.59
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 0.68
6 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
12 Clean Sheets 12
13 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Stade de Mbour. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Stade de Mbour having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

HLM Analysis

From their first 22 matches, HLM have collected 23 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 14 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 12:18 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Stade de Mbour Analysis

Stade de Mbour are currently 10 in the standings with 23 points from 22 matches. The record of 3 wins, 14 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 13:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, HLM won 0 times, Stade de Mbour won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from HLM's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (69.7%)
H2H summary: HLM wins 0, draws 2, Stade de Mbour wins 0
Last matches: HLM
04.06.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
2
1
W
22.05.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
17.05.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
1
L
13.05.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
HLM
Gorée
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
HLM
Guédiawaye
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lig
HLM
Teungueth
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
HLM
Wally Daan
1
2
L
29.03.26
Lig
HLM
AJEL
3
0
W
25.03.26
Lig
HLM
Ouakam
0
1
L
15.03.26
Lig
HLM
DSC
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
HLM
AS Camberene
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
HLM
Casa Sport
0
0
D
22.02.26
Lig
HLM
Jaraaf
0
0
D
15.02.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
0
0
D
09.02.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
3
L
25.01.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
HLM
Gorée
0
5
L
07.01.26
Lig
HLM
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
Last matches: Stade de Mbour
04.06.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
0
0
D
22.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Guédiawaye
0
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Teungueth
0
2
L
13.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
DSC
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Wally Daan
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AJEL
1
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Ouakam
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AS Camberene
0
0
D
29.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Casa Sport
1
1
D
25.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Jaraaf
0
2
L
15.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Pikine
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Sonacos
2
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Génération Foot
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
La Linguère
2
2
D
15.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
0
1
L
08.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Guédiawaye
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Teungueth
0
0
D
25.01.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
DSC
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Wally Daan
0
1
L
07.01.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AJEL
0
2
L
H2H: HLM vs Stade de Mbour
20.04.26
H2H
HLM
Stade de Mbour
1
1
D
21.12.25
H2H
Stade de Mbour
HLM
0
0
D
Last matches: HLM
04.06.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
2
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
1
L
13.05.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
03.05.26
Lig
HLM
Guédiawaye
2
1
W
29.03.26
Lig
HLM
AJEL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
HLM
AS Camberene
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
HLM
Jaraaf
0
0
D
09.02.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
HLM
Gorée
0
5
L
28.12.25
Lig
HLM
Teungueth
0
0
D
14.12.25
Lig
HLM
Wally Daan
2
2
D
30.11.25
Lig
HLM
Ouakam
0
0
D
23.11.25
Lig
HLM
DSC
0
1
L
09.11.25
Lig
HLM
Casa Sport
1
1
D
H2H at home: HLM
20.04.26
H2H
HLM
Stade de Mbour
1
1
D
Last matches: Stade de Mbour
04.06.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
0
0
D
17.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Teungueth
0
2
L
13.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
DSC
2
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AJEL
1
0
W
29.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Casa Sport
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Sonacos
2
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
La Linguère
2
2
D
08.02.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Guédiawaye
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Wally Daan
0
1
L
29.12.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Ouakam
1
1
D
14.12.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
AS Camberene
1
2
L
29.11.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Jaraaf
0
0
D
23.11.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Pikine
0
0
D
09.11.25
Lig
Stade de Mbour
Génération Foot
2
0
W
H2H away: Stade de Mbour
20.04.26
H2H
HLM
Stade de Mbour
1
1
D

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 13 15 2 21:6 15 54
?
2 30 15 9 6 27:19 8 54
?
3 30 13 9 8 37:22 15 48
?
4 30 11 15 4 29:14 15 48
?
5 30 10 14 6 29:24 5 44
?
6 30 8 18 4 23:16 7 42
?
7 30 9 14 7 21:16 5 41
?
8 30 7 19 4 29:20 9 40
?
9 30 7 13 10 20:19 1 34
?
10 30 5 18 7 18:21 -3 33
?
11
HLM Home
30 5 18 7 18:24 -6 33
?
12 30 5 16 9 24:37 -13 31
?
13 30 7 8 15 29:34 -5 28
?
14 30 3 16 11 22:36 -14 25
?
15 30 4 13 13 18:39 -21 25
?
16 30 3 15 12 16:34 -18 24
?
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation