FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Bolt Arena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.1%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
HJK Helsinki Win 38.8%
Draw 16.1%
VPS Win 45.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
HJK Helsinki1.34
VPS1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WWDLW
32 GF / 25 GA
VPS VPS
WLDWL
26 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
0.84
8
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
7
1.67
Shots on Goal
1.87

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 19 matches
VPS VPS 19 matches
HJK Helsinki Statistic VPS
8 Wins 8
4 Draws 7
7 Losses 4
32 Goals For 26
25 Goals Against 16
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 0.84
8 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 12
11 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 5
1.67 Shots On Goal 1.87
4.67 Total Shots 4.2
1.6 Corners 1.87
21.5% Ball Possession 27.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors VPS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. VPS look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HJK Helsinki expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and VPS in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VPS having the stronger overall control.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 22 points after 15 matches. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 25:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Brooklyn Lyons-Foster (1 goals), M. Borchers (1 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

VPS Analysis

VPS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 27 points after 15 matches. They have recorded 7 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a 22:11 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on L. Smyth (3 goals), with creative support from J. Muzinga (1 assists), K. Kouassivi-Benissan (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HJK Helsinki won 8 times, VPS won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:13 from HJK Helsinki's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: HJK Helsinki 4-1-4-1 / VPS 3-4-3
H2H summary: HJK Helsinki wins 8, draws 4, VPS wins 3
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
11.07.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
4
L
23.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
Last matches: VPS
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H: HJK Helsinki vs VPS
22.05.26
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
L
05.07.25
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
2
W
26.04.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
3
1
W
20.09.24
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
01.09.24
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
3
W
17.05.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
08.10.23
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
3
2
L
19.04.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
4
0
W
15.04.23
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
W
16.07.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
3
1
W
13.06.22
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
0
D
18.04.22
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
W
27.07.19
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
1
D
07.05.19
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
07.10.18
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
0
W
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
27.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
17.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
5
0
W
H2H at home: HJK Helsinki
26.04.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
3
1
W
17.05.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
19.04.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
4
0
W
16.07.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
3
1
W
27.07.19
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
1
D
07.10.18
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
0
W
Last matches: VPS
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
H2H away: VPS
26.04.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
3
1
L
17.05.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
W
19.04.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
4
0
L
16.07.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
3
1
L
27.07.19
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
1
D
07.10.18
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3
VPS Away
15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8 15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9 15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10 15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)