FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Bolt Arena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.3%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
HJK Helsinki Win 45.3%
Draw 17.7%
KuPS Win 37%
Expected Goals (xG)
HJK Helsinki1.35
KuPS1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WWDLW
28 GF / 19 GA
KuPS KuPS
WLDWL
22 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
8
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
5
2.08
Shots on Goal
3.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 16 matches
KuPS KuPS 16 matches
HJK Helsinki Statistic KuPS
7 Wins 8
4 Draws 7
5 Losses 1
28 Goals For 22
19 Goals Against 12
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
8 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 3
2.08 Shots On Goal 3.15
5.67 Total Shots 7.69
1.92 Corners 3.15
23.3% Ball Possession 28.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward KuPS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HJK Helsinki expected to line up in 4-3-3 and KuPS in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward KuPS having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 19 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 21:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Borchers (6 goals), T. Pukki (3 goals), A. Cicale (2 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (3 assists), D. Ezeh (2 assists), L. Lingman (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

KuPS Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 24 points from 13 games, KuPS bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 19:12, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. J. Moreno Ciorciari (7 goals), O. Ruoppi (5 goals), B. Armah (4 goals), with creative support from O. Ruoppi (3 assists), P. Pennanen (2 assists), G. Engvall (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, HJK Helsinki won 3 times, KuPS won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:22 from HJK Helsinki's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.3%)
Predicted formations: HJK Helsinki 4-3-3 / KuPS 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: HJK Helsinki wins 3, draws 4, KuPS wins 7
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
17.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
5
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
0
4
L
Last matches: KuPS
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fri
KuPS
JIPPO
1
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
19.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
2
L
18.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Crystal Palace
2
2
D
11.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Lausanne
0
0
D
H2H: HJK Helsinki vs KuPS
26.04.26
H2H
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
09.11.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
2
L
19.10.25
H2H
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
3
1
L
20.09.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
0
W
27.06.25
H2H
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
3
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
0
D
15.03.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
3
1
W
19.10.24
H2H
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
0
L
19.06.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
3
1
W
06.04.24
H2H
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
3
1
L
21.10.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
2
L
03.09.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
2
2
D
05.05.23
H2H
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
L
24.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
0
D
18.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
17.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
5
0
W
H2H at home: HJK Helsinki
09.11.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
2
L
20.09.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
0
W
31.05.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
0
D
15.03.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
3
1
W
19.06.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
3
1
W
21.10.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
2
L
03.09.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
2
2
D
24.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
0
D
18.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
Last matches: KuPS
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
04.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
26.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
18.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Crystal Palace
2
2
D
27.11.25
UEF
KuPS
Jagiellonia
0
1
L
23.10.25
UEF
KuPS
Breidablik
0
0
D
21.08.25
UEF
KuPS
FC Midtjylland
0
4
L
06.08.25
UEF
KuPS
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Kairat Almaty
0
3
L
15.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Milsami Orhei
0
0
D
H2H away: KuPS
09.11.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
2
W
20.09.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
0
D
15.03.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
3
1
L
19.06.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
3
1
L
21.10.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
2
W
03.09.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
2
2
D
24.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
0
D
18.03.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 12 8 1 3 18:9 9 25
W D W W W
3
KuPS Away
13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8 12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9 11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 11 0 4 7 6:19 -13 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)