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NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
16.10.2026 18:00
GS Staalwerken Stadion

Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 42.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
42.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Helmond Sport Win 41.3%
Draw 16.4%
NAC Breda Win 42.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Helmond Sport1.44
NAC Breda1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Helmond Sport Helmond Sport
WWDLW
19 GF / 30 GA
NAC Breda NAC Breda
WLDWL
28 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
11
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
12
4.1
Shots on Goal
6.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 16 matches
NAC Breda NAC Breda 16 matches
Helmond Sport Statistic NAC Breda
3 Wins 8
4 Draws 2
9 Losses 6
19 Goals For 28
30 Goals Against 29
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
11 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 8
1 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 3
4.1 Shots On Goal 6.4
11.7 Total Shots 20.6
3.9 Corners 6.5
44.8% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward NAC Breda. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Helmond Sport expected to line up in 4-4-2 and NAC Breda in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward NAC Breda having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. NAC Breda carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 14 points while Helmond Sport sit 14 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Helmond Sport Analysis

Helmond Sport sit 14 with 9 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 15:16, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Mauro Lenaerts (3 goals), T. Essakkati (2 goals), S. Dekkers (2 goals), with creative support from T. Essakkati (2 assists), Xander van der Velde (2 assists), H. Ingason (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

NAC Breda Analysis

NAC Breda are currently 9 in the standings with 14 points from 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 19:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Brym (4 goals), P. Gladon (4 goals), M. Soumano (3 goals), with creative support from M. Nassoh (3 assists), B. Lucassen (2 assists), G. Misehouy (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Helmond Sport won 3 times, NAC Breda won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:16 from Helmond Sport's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.42 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.6%)
Predicted formations: Helmond Sport 4-4-2 / NAC Breda 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Helmond Sport wins 3, draws 4, NAC Breda wins 5

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 31:12 19 25
W D W L W
2 10 7 1 2 22:7 15 22
W W L W W
3 10 7 0 3 26:14 12 21
W W L W W
4 10 6 1 3 22:18 4 19
W D W L L
5 10 5 2 3 20:19 1 17
W D W W L
6 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
D L W D W
7 10 5 1 4 13:20 -7 16
L L W L L
8 10 5 0 5 22:17 5 15
W L W L W
9 10 3 5 2 19:15 4 14
L D L W W
10 10 4 2 4 15:15 0 14
L D L W L
11 10 4 1 5 22:18 4 13
L W D L W
12 10 3 4 3 15:17 -2 13
D L D L W
13 10 4 0 6 15:15 0 12
W W L W L
14 10 3 2 5 14:18 -4 11
W D L W L
15 10 3 2 5 15:22 -7 11
L D L W W
16 10 3 2 5 13:23 -10 11
W D W L W
17 10 2 3 5 16:19 -3 9
L D L L W
18 10 2 2 6 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
19 10 2 2 6 13:27 -14 8
L D W L L
20 10 2 1 7 16:23 -7 7
L L W W D
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