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NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
02.10.2026 19:00
Lavans Stadion
Helmond Sport
Match Timeline
Heracles
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde
Heracles
⚽
6'
M. Wrusch · Assist: D. van der Kust
Heracles
🟨
8'
Fabian De Keijzer
Heracles
🟥
8'
David Vicente
Heracles
⚽
13'
T. Essakkati · Assist: X. van der Velde
Helmond Sport
🟨
26'
Pol Llonch
Helmond Sport
🟨
29'
Tarik Essakkati
Helmond Sport
🔄
36'
P. Llonch ↔ A. Dizdarevic
Helmond Sport
⚽
44'
Manny
Heracles
🔄
46'
C. Abbas ↔ M. Benita
Heracles
⚽
54'
S. Dekkers · Assist: X. van der Velde
Helmond Sport
🔄
58'
J. van der Sluijs ↔ M. Lenaerts
Helmond Sport
🔄
66'
T. van Gilst ↔ S. Bultman
Heracles
🔄
66'
M. Hauswirth ↔ D. Tomic
Heracles
🟨
71'
Tarik Essakkati
Helmond Sport
🟥
71'
Tarik Essakkati
Helmond Sport
🔄
79'
T. Poll ↔ F. Van Den Eynden
Helmond Sport
🔄
79'
L. Cicero ↔ K. Ekoli
Helmond Sport
🟨
80'
Mauro Lenaerts
Helmond Sport
🟨
82'
Xander van der Velde
Helmond Sport
🟨
82'
Stijn Bultman
Heracles
🟨
87'
Mimeirhel Benita
Heracles
🔄
88'
↔ M. Engels
Heracles

Helmond Sport vs Heracles Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Helmond Sport Win 39.3%
Draw 11%
Heracles Win 49.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Helmond Sport1.26
Heracles2.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Helmond Sport Helmond Sport
WWDLW
16 GF / 25 GA
Heracles Heracles
WLDWL
33 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
3
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
9
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
8
3.63
Shots on Goal
8.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 14 matches
Heracles Heracles 11 matches
Helmond Sport Statistic Heracles
3 Wins 9
3 Draws 0
8 Losses 2
16 Goals For 33
25 Goals Against 16
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 3
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
9 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 1
3.63 Shots On Goal 8.25
10.88 Total Shots 21.25
3.75 Corners 7.75
43.1% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Helmond Sport expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Heracles in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Heracles having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Heracles. Heracles carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 18 points while Helmond Sport sit 14 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Heracles look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Helmond Sport Analysis

Helmond Sport approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 8 points from 7 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 13:12 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Mauro Lenaerts (3 goals), L. Cicero (2 goals), T. Essakkati (1 goals), with creative support from T. Essakkati (2 assists), H. Ingason (2 assists), L. Cicero (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Heracles Analysis

Heracles approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 18 points after 7 outings. They have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, with a 24:10 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on T. van Gilst (6 goals), Jean-Paul N'Djoli (6 goals), J. N'djoli (4 goals), with creative support from C. Abbas (3 assists), T. Bruns (3 assists), S. Scheperman (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Helmond Sport won 0 times, Heracles won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:5 from Helmond Sport's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.1%)
Predicted formations: Helmond Sport 4-4-2 / Heracles 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Helmond Sport wins 0, draws 0, Heracles wins 3

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 31:12 19 25
W D W L W
2 10 7 1 2 22:7 15 22
W W L W W
3 10 7 0 3 26:14 12 21
W W L W W
4 10 6 1 3 22:18 4 19
W D W L L
5 10 5 2 3 20:19 1 17
W D W W L
6 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
D L W D W
7 10 5 1 4 13:20 -7 16
L L W L L
8 10 5 0 5 22:17 5 15
W L W L W
9 10 3 5 2 19:15 4 14
L D L W W
10 10 4 2 4 15:15 0 14
L D L W L
11 10 4 1 5 22:18 4 13
L W D L W
12 10 3 4 3 15:17 -2 13
D L D L W
13 10 4 0 6 15:15 0 12
W W L W L
14 10 3 2 5 14:18 -4 11
W D L W L
15 10 3 2 5 15:22 -7 11
L D L W W
16 10 3 2 5 13:23 -10 11
W D W L W
17 10 2 3 5 16:19 -3 9
L D L L W
18 10 2 2 6 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
19 10 2 2 6 13:27 -14 8
L D W L L
20 10 2 1 7 16:23 -7 7
L L W W D
Promotion - Eredivisie
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)