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FRANCE › LIGUE 2
16.10.2026 18:00
Stade de Roudourou
Referee: Vincent, Thomas

Guingamp vs PAU Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.08
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.4%
2.08 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Guingamp Win 52.4%
Draw 10.9%
PAU Win 36.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guingamp1.29
PAU1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guingamp Guingamp
WWDLW
18 GF / 24 GA
PAU PAU
WLDWL
17 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
9
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
7
5.25
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guingamp Guingamp 15 matches
PAU PAU 14 matches
Guingamp Statistic PAU
4 Wins 6
4 Draws 2
7 Losses 6
18 Goals For 17
24 Goals Against 20
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
9 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 9
8 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 5
5.25 Shots On Goal 4.5
13.5 Total Shots 14.88
4 Corners 4.5
52% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring PAU. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guingamp expected to line up in 4-4-2 and PAU in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward PAU having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Guingamp Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Guingamp have collected 8 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 10:12 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Gomis (2 goals), S. Kielt (2 goals), E. Koffi (1 goals), with creative support from T. Averlant (2 assists), D. Gomis (1 assists), E. Koffi (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

PAU Analysis

From their first 7 matches, PAU have collected 8 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 6:6 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Babacar Leye (3 goals), L. Rajot (1 goals), J. Benet (1 goals), with creative support from L. Rajot (2 assists), J. Benet (1 assists), A. Briançon (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Guingamp won 6 times, PAU won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from Guingamp's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.08 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.1%)
Predicted formations: Guingamp 4-4-2 / PAU 5-3-2
H2H summary: Guingamp wins 6, draws 1, PAU wins 5

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 21:8 13 19
W D L W W
2 8 5 2 1 12:9 3 17
W W W W L
3 8 4 3 1 8:5 3 15
W D W L D
4 8 3 5 0 15:9 6 14
D D W D W
5 8 4 1 3 9:7 2 13
W W L L W
6 8 4 1 3 10:9 1 13
W L L W D
7 8 3 3 2 14:12 2 12
W W W D L
8
PAU Away
8 3 2 3 9:8 1 11
W W L D D
9 8 2 5 1 5:6 -1 11
D D W D D
10 8 2 4 2 12:11 1 10
L D L W D
11 8 2 2 4 10:13 -3 8
L L W D D
12 8 2 2 4 10:13 -3 8
L L W D L
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
D W L W D
14 8 2 2 4 8:13 -5 8
L D W L W
15 8 2 1 5 14:18 -4 7
L L L L D
16 8 0 6 2 4:6 -2 6
D L D D D
17 8 0 6 2 6:9 -3 6
L D D D D
18 8 1 2 5 10:17 -7 5
L D L L L
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3