MEXICO LIGA MX
19.07.2026 01:10
Estadio Akron
Referee: Daniel Quintero Huitron
Guadalajara Chivas
Match Timeline
Toluca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Franco Romero
Toluca
VAR
39'
Alexis Vega
Toluca
42'
Alexis Vega
Toluca
🔄
46'
Kevin Castañeda ↔ Brian Gutiérrez
Guadalajara Chivas
VAR
48'
Ángel Sepúlveda
Guadalajara Chivas
🟥
50'
Ángel Sepúlveda
Guadalajara Chivas
🟨
54'
Roberto Alvarado
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
56'
Richard Ledezma ↔ Armando González
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
59'
Érick Gutiérrez ↔ Helinho
Toluca
🟨
61'
Jesús Gallardo
Toluca
🔄
68'
Omar Govea ↔ Jordan Carrillo
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
70'
Alexis Vega ↔ Víctor Guzmán
Toluca
74'
Jesús Gallardo · Assist: Helinho
Toluca
🔄
85'
Diego Campillo ↔ Ricardo Marín
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
86'
Daniel Aguirre ↔ Miguel Gómez
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
87'
Jesús Ricardo Angulo ↔ Fernando Arce Juárez
Toluca
🔄
87'
Nicolás Castro ↔ Bruno Méndez
Toluca
🟨
90+6'
Jordan Carrillo
Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.2%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Guadalajara Chivas Win 76.2%
Draw 7.7%
Toluca Win 16.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guadalajara Chivas0.73
Toluca1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
WWDLW
1 GF / 0 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
22 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
0.33
Average Goals Scored
2.44
0
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
0
BTTS Yes
5
0
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
7.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 3 matches
Toluca Toluca 9 matches
Guadalajara Chivas Statistic Toluca
1 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
0 Losses 3
1 Goals For 22
0 Goals Against 12
0.33 Avg Goals Scored 2.44
0 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
0 BTTS Yes 5
0 Over 1.5 8
0 Over 2.5 7
0 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 7.14
0 Total Shots 18.71
0 Corners 4.14
0% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Guadalajara Chivas won 3 times, Toluca won 5 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:18 from Guadalajara Chivas's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)
Predicted formations: Guadalajara Chivas 3-1-4-2 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Guadalajara Chivas wins 3, draws 7, Toluca wins 5

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 15:6 9 17
W W D W W
2 7 5 1 1 17:6 11 16
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
4 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
5 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
6 8 4 1 3 11:9 2 13
W L D W W
7 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
8 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
W L W W D
9 8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
10 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
11 8 3 2 3 11:12 -1 11
L W L D D
12 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 8 1 4 3 9:11 -2 7
D D D W L
15 8 1 4 3 7:12 -5 7
L D D L D
16 8 1 3 4 8:15 -7 6
L L W D L
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 8 0 0 8 4:23 -19 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)