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MEXICO › LIGA MX
17.10.2026 23:07
Estadio Akron
Referee: Fernando Hernandez Gomez

Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.7%
Odds 1.84
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds 2.05
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.7%
1.84 ▥
BTTS No
65.8%
2.05 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
2.03 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88 ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Guadalajara Chivas Win 83.7%
Draw 4.7%
Tigres UANL Win 11.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guadalajara Chivas1.32
Tigres UANL1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
WWDLW
21 GF / 11 GA
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WLDWL
29 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
5
BTTS Yes
11
4
Over 2.5
9
5.55
Shots on Goal
5.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 15 matches
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 21 matches
Guadalajara Chivas Statistic Tigres UANL
7 Wins 8
6 Draws 7
2 Losses 6
21 Goals For 29
11 Goals Against 25
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
5 BTTS Yes 11
10 Over 1.5 15
4 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 5
5.55 Shots On Goal 5.25
14.36 Total Shots 15.85
7.82 Corners 6.25
59.1% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Guadalajara Chivas's more proactive style and Tigres UANL's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Guadalajara Chivas arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 18 points compared to Tigres UANL in 15 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guadalajara Chivas expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Tigres UANL in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tigres UANL having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tigres UANL.

Guadalajara Chivas Analysis

Guadalajara Chivas come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 18 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 17:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Alvarado (3 goals), R. Marín (2 goals), Santiago Sandoval (2 goals), with creative support from R. Marín (2 assists), Á. Sepúlveda (2 assists), E. Álvarez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Tigres UANL Analysis

Tigres UANL approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 10 points from 10 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 10:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Brunetta (1 goals), F. Gorriarán (1 goals), R. Aguirre (1 goals), with creative support from J. Brunetta (2 assists), Joaquim (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Guadalajara Chivas won 3 times, Tigres UANL won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:28 from Guadalajara Chivas's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1 / Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Guadalajara Chivas wins 3, draws 4, Tigres UANL wins 8

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 22:11 11 21
D W D L W
2 11 6 2 3 25:15 10 20
L D L W W
3 10 6 2 2 15:8 7 20
W W D W W
4 11 5 4 2 18:11 7 19
D L D W W
6 11 5 3 3 17:18 -1 18
D W D L D
7 11 5 2 4 22:21 1 17
D D L W W
8 10 4 3 3 15:14 1 15
D L D L W
9 11 4 3 4 12:13 -1 15
D L D L W
10 10 4 2 4 17:15 2 14
D L W D L
11 11 3 4 4 18:14 4 13
D L D W W
12 11 3 4 4 17:19 -2 13
D L D L W
13 11 3 4 4 13:15 -2 13
W W L D D
14 11 4 1 6 12:16 -4 13
W W W W L
15 11 3 3 5 15:20 -5 12
L W W L L
16 11 2 5 4 12:17 -5 11
L W D L D
17 11 2 3 6 15:23 -8 9
D L L L D
18 11 1 1 9 8:26 -18 4
D L W L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)