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18.10.2026 14:45
Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
Referee: Dennis Higler
Groningen
Match Timeline
Ajax
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
Davy Klaassen
Ajax
VAR
16'
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
Groningen
⚽
27'
J. Brandt
Ajax
⚽
37'
A. Bouwman
Ajax
🟨
40'
Thom Van Bergen
Groningen
🟨
45+2'
Dies Janse
Ajax
⚽
49'
B. Willumsson
Groningen
VAR
56'
Davy Klaassen
Ajax
⚽
60'
J. Brandt · Assist: O. Wijndal
Ajax
🔄
67'
J. Ondrejka ↔ M. Csinger
Groningen
⚽
69'
J. Mokio
Ajax
🔄
74'
J. Brandt ↔ A. Ouazane
Ajax
🔄
74'
Marcos Leonardo ↔ T. Arokodare
Ajax
⚽
75'
J. Mokio · Assist: D. Klaassen
Ajax
🔄
82'
T. de Jonge ↔ N. Eggens
Groningen
🔄
82'
D. van der Werff ↔ R. Metu
Groningen
🔄
82'
O. Gloukh ↔ R. Bounida
Ajax
🔄
82'
D. Klaassen ↔ Y. Bissouma
Ajax
🔄
83'
M. Rente ↔ W. Prins
Groningen
🔄
83'
B. Willumsson ↔ T. Land
Groningen
⚽
83'
T. van Bergen
Groningen
🟨
90'
Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
Ajax
⚽
90+1'
Thom Van Bergen
Groningen

Groningen vs Ajax Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Groningen Win 37.7%
Draw 3.4%
Ajax Win 59%
Expected Goals (xG)
Groningen1.55
Ajax2.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Groningen Groningen
W W D D L
13 GF / 7 GA
Ajax Ajax
L D D W W
14 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
2.5
1.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
10
BTTS Yes
18
12
Over 2.5
18
5.88
Shots on Goal
8.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Groningen Groningen 15 matches
Ajax Ajax 24 matches
Groningen Statistic Ajax
6 Wins 14
3 Draws 6
6 Losses 4
26 Goals For 60
28 Goals Against 31
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 2.5
1.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
10 BTTS Yes 18
13 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 18
8 Over 3.5 16
3 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 1
5.88 Shots On Goal 8.47
14.75 Total Shots 23.2
4.63 Corners 8
49.8% Ball Possession 64.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ajax. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Groningen expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ajax in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ajax having the stronger overall control.

Groningen Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Groningen have collected 11 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 15:13 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. van Bergen (4 goals), B. Willumsson (4 goals), D. van der Werff (2 goals), with creative support from D. van der Werff (3 assists), T. van Bergen (2 assists), T. Land (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Ajax Analysis

Placed 5 with 15 points from 8 outings, Ajax continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 22:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Arokodare (4 goals), J. Brandt (4 goals), D. Klaassen (3 goals), with creative support from O. Gloukh (4 assists), K. Dolberg (3 assists), S. Berghuis (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Groningen won 3 times, Ajax won 11 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:35 from Groningen's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: Groningen 4-2-3-1 / Ajax 4-3-3
Missing players: Groningen 4, Ajax 5
H2H summary: Groningen wins 3, draws 1, Ajax wins 11

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 3 0 32:11 21 24
D W W W W
2
Ajax Away
10 6 3 1 29:13 16 21
W W D D W
3 10 6 2 2 28:13 15 20
D L W L W
4 10 6 2 2 19:10 9 20
W L D W W
5 10 6 2 2 20:12 8 20
L D L W D
6 10 5 3 2 17:17 0 18
W D D W L
7 10 4 3 3 18:13 5 15
W W L W D
8 10 4 3 3 24:21 3 15
D L W W D
9 10 3 5 2 23:23 0 14
W L D D D
10 10 3 3 4 19:22 -3 12
W D W D W
11 10 3 3 4 17:27 -10 12
D W W L W
12 10 2 5 3 17:18 -1 11
D D D D L
13 10 3 2 5 16:19 -3 11
L L L D L
14 10 2 3 5 17:24 -7 9
L W D L L
15 10 2 2 6 11:23 -12 8
D W L L L
16 10 1 3 6 12:21 -9 6
L L D L D
17 10 1 3 6 13:23 -10 6
L W D D L
18 10 0 2 8 10:32 -22 2
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie