BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: E. Batista
Gremio
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Hércules
Fluminense
🟨
13'
Guga
Fluminense
🔄
21'
Guilherme Arana ↔ Rene
Fluminense
VAR
62'
Hulk
Fluminense
65'
Hulk
Fluminense
🟨
69'
Thiago Silva
Fluminense
🔄
69'
E. Noriega ↔ M. Braithwaite
Gremio
🔄
69'
C. Pavon ↔ Diego Caito
Gremio
🔄
75'
L. Acosta ↔ Nonato
Fluminense
🔄
75'
Hulk ↔ G. Cano
Fluminense
🟨
77'
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
🔄
78'
Tete ↔ J. Enamorado
Gremio
🔄
78'
F. Amuzu ↔ J. Cabral
Gremio
🟨
79'
Agustín Canobbio
Fluminense
🔄
80'
Marlon ↔ Pedro Gabriel
Gremio
🔄
86'
K. Serna ↔ Y. Soteldo
Fluminense
🔄
87'
Hercules ↔ Ignacio
Fluminense
89'
Diego Caito · Assist: J. Cabral
Gremio
🟨
90+2'
Juan Nardoni
Gremio

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.1%
-
BTTS Yes
82.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 47.8%
Draw 6.9%
Fluminense Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.21
Fluminense1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
27 GF / 29 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
44 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
14
BTTS Yes
19
11
Over 2.5
14
3.63
Shots on Goal
5.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 22 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 27 matches
Gremio Statistic Fluminense
7 Wins 13
6 Draws 7
9 Losses 7
27 Goals For 44
29 Goals Against 32
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
14 BTTS Yes 19
17 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 4
3.63 Shots On Goal 5.48
11.21 Total Shots 15.08
3.89 Corners 5.16
49.7% Ball Possession 60.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Fluminense's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Fluminense. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Fluminense in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fluminense having the stronger overall control. Gremio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Fluminense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 32 points while Gremio sit 16 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Gremio Analysis

With 21 points from 19 games and a place of 16, Gremio still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats with a 21:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 32 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 29:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 8 times, Fluminense won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Gremio's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 4-3-3 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Gremio 5, Fluminense 4
H2H summary: Gremio wins 8, draws 2, Fluminense wins 5
Stats
Gremio Gremio
Fluminense Fluminense
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
9 Corner Kicks 2
12 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 2
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Goal 3
2 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 5
5 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
466 Total passes 476
406 Passes accurate 416
1.28 expected_goals 1.07
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Gremio
Formation
Fluminense
Gabriel Grando
Gabriel Grando
C. Pavon
C. Pavon
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins
Walter Kannemann
Walter Kannemann
Marlon
Marlon
E. Noriega
E. Noriega
Tete
Tete
M. Villasanti
M. Villasanti
J. Nardoni
J. Nardoni
F. Amuzu
F. Amuzu
Carlos Vinicius
Carlos Vinicius
Fabio
Fabio
Guga
Guga
Thiago Silva
Thiago Silva
J. Freytes
J. Freytes
Guilherme Arana
Guilherme Arana
Martinelli
Martinelli
Hercules
Hercules
A. Canobbio
A. Canobbio
L. Acosta
L. Acosta
K. Serna
K. Serna
Hulk
Hulk
Gremio 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
12
Gabriel Grando
G
7
C. Pavon
↓ 69'
D
6
Gustavo Martins
D
4
Walter Kannemann
D
23
Marlon
↓ 80'
D
19
E. Noriega
↓ 69'
M
21
Tete
↓ 78'
M
20
M. Villasanti
M
5
J. Nardoni
🟨 90+2'
M
9
F. Amuzu
↓ 78'
M
95
Carlos Vinicius
🟨 77'
F
Substitutes
24
Thiago Beltrame
G
22
M. Braithwaite
↑ 69'
F
17
Dodi
M
99
J. Enamorado
↑ 78'
F
30
Matheus Nascimento
F
54
Pedro Gabriel
↑ 80'
D
43
Luis Eduardo
D
77
J. Cabral
🎯 89' ↑ 78'
F
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
27
Diego Caito
⚽ 89' ↑ 69'
D
65
Riquelme
M
37
Gabriel Mec
F
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Fabio
G
23
Guga
🟨 13'
D
3
Thiago Silva
🟨 69'
D
22
J. Freytes
D
13
Guilherme Arana
↓ 21'
D
8
Martinelli
M
35
Hercules
↓ 87' 🟨 12'
M
17
A. Canobbio
🟨 79'
M
32
L. Acosta
↓ 75'
M
90
K. Serna
↓ 86'
M
7
Hulk
⚽ 65' ↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
27
Marcelo Pitaluga
G
10
PH Ganso
M
2
Samuel Xavier
D
16
Nonato
↑ 75'
M
4
Ignacio
↑ 87'
D
21
Igor Rabello
D
46
Julio Fidelis
D
94
Otavio
M
14
G. Cano
↑ 75'
F
6
Rene
↑ 21'
D
30
Y. Soteldo
↑ 86'
F
28
Riquelme Felipe
F
Last matches: Gremio
16.08.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
0
3
L
08.08.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
17.07.26
Ser
Gremio
Mirassol
1
2
L
12.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
Last matches: Fluminense
18.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
15.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
3
2
W
11.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
09.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
1
D
30.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
H2H: Gremio vs Fluminense
26.07.26
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
1
D
28.01.26
H2H
Fluminense
Gremio
2
1
L
03.12.25
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
03.08.25
H2H
Fluminense
Gremio
1
0
L
02.11.24
H2H
Fluminense
Gremio
2
2
D
20.08.24
H2H
Fluminense
Gremio
2
1
L
13.08.24
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
2
1
W
30.06.24
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
W
07.12.23
H2H
Fluminense
Gremio
2
3
W
13.08.23
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
2
1
W
10.11.21
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
W
18.07.21
H2H
Fluminense
Gremio
0
1
W
08.11.20
H2H
Fluminense
Gremio
0
1
W
10.08.20
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
W
29.09.19
H2H
Fluminense
Gremio
2
1
L
Last matches: Gremio
08.08.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Botafogo
5
3
W
H2H at home: Gremio
26.07.26
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
1
D
03.12.25
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
13.08.24
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
2
1
W
30.06.24
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
W
13.08.23
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
2
1
W
10.11.21
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
W
10.08.20
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
W
Last matches: Fluminense
18.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
12.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
1
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
1
1
D
H2H away: Fluminense
26.07.26
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
1
D
03.12.25
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
W
13.08.24
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
2
1
L
30.06.24
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
L
13.08.23
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
2
1
L
10.11.21
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
L
10.08.20
H2H
Gremio
Fluminense
1
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Gremio 5 missing
-
Fabian Balbuena
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Marlon
Questionable Broken ankle
OUT
-
E. Noriega
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
F. Amuzu
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
L. Perez
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Fluminense 4 missing
-
Jemmes
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
J. Millan
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
John Kennedy
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
Matheus Reis
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT