BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: F. Fernandes de Lima
Gremio
Match Timeline
Coritiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
🟨
10'
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
🟥
30'
Bruno Melo
Coritiba
🔄
34'
Breno Lopes ↔ Felipe Jonatan
Coritiba
VAR
37'
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
43'
Gabriel Mec · Assist: J. Enamorado
Gremio
🟨
45+6'
Leonel Pérez
Gremio
🟨
45+8'
Vini Paulista
Coritiba
🔄
46'
L. Perez ↔ E. Noriega
Gremio
🟨
48'
Viery
Gremio
🔄
59'
Vini Paulista ↔ Willian Oliveira
Coritiba
🔄
59'
Maicon ↔ Joao Pedro Chermont
Coritiba
🔄
69'
J. Enamorado ↔ Tete
Gremio
🔄
75'
Carlos Vinicius ↔ M. Braithwaite
Gremio
🔄
75'
Gabriel Mec ↔ J. Nardoni
Gremio
🔄
78'
Thiago Santos ↔ Tiago Coser
Coritiba
🔄
78'
Pedro Rocha ↔ J. Lavega
Coritiba
🔄
89'
Arthur Melo ↔ Riquelme
Gremio
VAR
90+4'
Juan Nardoni
Gremio
🟥
90+8'
Jacy Maranhão
Coritiba

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 54.1%
Draw 4.5%
Coritiba Win 41.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.1
Coritiba1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
14 GF / 16 GA
Coritiba Coritiba
WLDWL
15 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
3
3.92
Shots on Goal
3.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 12 matches
Coritiba Coritiba 12 matches
Gremio Statistic Coritiba
3 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 3
14 Goals For 15
16 Goals Against 12
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 3
3.92 Shots On Goal 3.08
12 Total Shots 10.25
3.92 Corners 3.25
51.3% Ball Possession 38.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Coritiba's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Coritiba in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Coritiba having the stronger overall control. Coritiba carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 19 points while Gremio sit 16 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Gremio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Coritiba.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 16 with 13 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 14:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Marlon, M. Villasanti, Joao Pedro, Gustavo Martins, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Coritiba Analysis

So far, Coritiba have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 19 points from 12 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:12 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Breno Lopes (5 goals), J. Lavega (3 goals), Pedro Rocha (3 goals), with creative support from Josué (4 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Breno Lopes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Pedro Morisco, Rodrigo Rodrigues, Renato Marques, S. Gomez unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 7 times, Coritiba won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Gremio's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 4-1-4-1 / Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Gremio 5, Coritiba 5
H2H summary: Gremio wins 7, draws 3, Coritiba wins 5
Stats
Gremio Gremio
Coritiba Coritiba
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
12
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 2
20 Fouls 11
5 Offsides 0
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Goal 4
4 Shots off Goal 7
12 Blocked Shots 4
13 Shots insidebox 8
9 Shots outsidebox 7
4 Goalkeeper Saves 5
442 Total passes 341
383 Passes accurate 279
1.20 expected_goals 0.65
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 2 🟥

Lineups

Gremio
Formation
Coritiba
Weverton
Weverton
C. Pavon
C. Pavon
Wagner Leonardo
Wagner Leonardo
Viery
Viery
Pedro Gabriel
Pedro Gabriel
L. Perez
L. Perez
Arthur Melo
Arthur Melo
J. Enamorado
🎯
J. Enamorado
Gabriel Mec
Gabriel Mec
F. Amuzu
F. Amuzu
Carlos Vinicius
Carlos Vinicius
Pedro Rangel
Pedro Rangel
Tinga
Tinga
Jacy
Jacy
Maicon
Maicon
Bruno Melo
Bruno Melo
Thiago Santos
Thiago Santos
Vini Paulista
Vini Paulista
Lucas Ronier
Lucas Ronier
Josue
Josue
Breno Lopes
Breno Lopes
Pedro Rocha
Pedro Rocha
Gremio 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Weverton
G
7
C. Pavon
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
44
Viery
🟨 48'
D
54
Pedro Gabriel
D
33
L. Perez
↓ 46' 🟨 45+6'
M
8
Arthur Melo
↓ 89'
M
99
J. Enamorado
🎯 43' ↓ 69'
M
37
Gabriel Mec
⚽ 43' ↓ 75'
M
9
F. Amuzu
M
95
Carlos Vinicius
↓ 75' 🟨 10'
F
Substitutes
12
Gabriel Grando
G
22
M. Braithwaite
↑ 75'
F
14
Marcos Rocha
D
2
Fabian Balbuena
D
38
Caio Paulista
D
21
Tete
↑ 69'
F
5
J. Nardoni
↑ 75'
M
19
E. Noriega
↑ 46'
M
47
Roger
M
4
Walter Kannemann
D
77
Andre Henrique
F
65
Riquelme
↑ 89'
M
Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Pedro Rangel
G
2
Tinga
D
55
Jacy
🟥 90+8'
D
3
Maicon
↓ 59'
D
26
Bruno Melo
🟥 30'
D
21
Thiago Santos
↓ 78'
M
36
Vini Paulista
↓ 59' 🟨 45+8'
M
11
Lucas Ronier
M
10
Josue
M
77
Breno Lopes
↓ 34' 🟨 -5'
M
32
Pedro Rocha
↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
13
Keiller
G
29
Willian Oliveira
↑ 59'
M
8
Wallisson
M
6
Felipe Jonatan
↑ 34'
D
44
Joao Pedro Chermont
↑ 59'
D
14
Enzo Vagner
F
4
Rodrigo Moledo
D
88
Fernando Sobral
M
23
Tiago Coser
↑ 78'
D
7
J. Lavega
↑ 78'
F
39
Gustavo
M
33
D. Alves
F
Last matches: Gremio
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Botafogo
5
3
W
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
Last matches: Coritiba
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Santos
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
06.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
28.01.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H: Gremio vs Coritiba
26.04.26
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
01.11.23
H2H
Coritiba
Gremio
1
2
W
25.06.23
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
5
1
W
31.01.21
H2H
Coritiba
Gremio
1
1
D
07.10.20
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
1
W
15.10.17
H2H
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
W
23.06.17
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
0
W
08.09.16
H2H
Coritiba
Gremio
4
0
L
29.05.16
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
0
W
30.08.15
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
0
0
D
16.05.15
H2H
Coritiba
Gremio
2
0
L
25.10.14
H2H
Coritiba
Gremio
1
1
D
27.07.14
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
3
L
27.10.13
H2H
Coritiba
Gremio
4
0
L
09.08.13
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
0
1
L
Last matches: Gremio
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Botafogo
5
3
W
H2H at home: Gremio
26.04.26
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
25.06.23
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
5
1
W
07.10.20
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
1
W
23.06.17
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
0
W
29.05.16
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
0
W
30.08.15
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
0
0
D
27.07.14
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
3
L
09.08.13
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
0
1
L
Last matches: Coritiba
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Santos
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
06.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
H2H away: Coritiba
26.04.26
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
L
25.06.23
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
5
1
L
07.10.20
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
1
L
23.06.17
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
0
L
29.05.16
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
0
L
30.08.15
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
0
0
D
27.07.14
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
2
3
W
09.08.13
H2H
Gremio
Coritiba
0
1
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Gremio 5 missing
-
Marlon
Missing Fixture Broken ankle
OUT
-
M. Villasanti
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Joao Pedro
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Willian
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Gustavo Martins
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Coritiba 5 missing
-
Pedro Morisco
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
Rodrigo Rodrigues
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Renato Marques
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
Keno
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
S. Gomez
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT