Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
54.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
74.2%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
62.1%
|
- |
Gremio
Coritiba
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Gremio
12 matches
Coritiba
12 matches
| Gremio | Statistic | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 4 | Draws | 4 |
| 5 | Losses | 3 |
| 14 | Goals For | 15 |
| 16 | Goals Against | 12 |
| 1.17 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.25 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
| 7 | BTTS Yes | 5 |
| 10 | Over 1.5 | 8 |
| 5 | Over 2.5 | 3 |
| 1 | Over 3.5 | 2 |
| 3 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 3 |
| 3.92 | Shots On Goal | 3.08 |
| 12 | Total Shots | 10.25 |
| 3.92 | Corners | 3.25 |
| 51.3% | Ball Possession | 38.3% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Coritiba's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Coritiba in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Coritiba having the stronger overall control. Coritiba carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 19 points while Gremio sit 16 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Gremio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Coritiba.
Gremio sit 16 with 13 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 14:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Marlon, M. Villasanti, Joao Pedro, Gustavo Martins, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
So far, Coritiba have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 19 points from 12 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:12 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Breno Lopes (5 goals), J. Lavega (3 goals), Pedro Rocha (3 goals), with creative support from Josué (4 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Breno Lopes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Pedro Morisco, Rodrigo Rodrigues, Renato Marques, S. Gomez unavailable.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 7 times, Coritiba won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Gremio's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.
Gremio
6
4
4
7
12
4
Lineups
Gremio
Cascavel
Gremio
Corinthians
Gremio
Santos
Gremio
Bahia
Gremio
Flamengo
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Internacional
Gremio
Remo
Gremio
Palmeiras
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Vitoria
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
RB Bragantino
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Gremio
Botafogo
Gremio
Fluminense
Coritiba
Flamengo
Coritiba
Bahia
Coritiba
Santos
Coritiba
Internacional
Coritiba
Vitoria
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
Botafogo
Coritiba
Fluminense
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
Mirassol
Coritiba
Remo
Coritiba
Corinthians
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
Gremio
Corinthians
Gremio
Santos
Gremio
Flamengo
Gremio
Remo
Gremio
Vitoria
Gremio
RB Bragantino
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Botafogo
Coritiba
Flamengo
Coritiba
Santos
Coritiba
Vitoria
Coritiba
Botafogo
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
Mirassol
Coritiba
Corinthians
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30:13 | 17 | 41 |
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| 2 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31:16 | 15 | 34 |
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| 3 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 31 |
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| 4 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24:18 | 6 | 30 |
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| 5 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25:19 | 6 | 29 |
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| 6 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 2 | 26 |
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| 7 |
Coritiba
Away
|
18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24:24 | 0 | 26 |
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|
| 8 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23:20 | 3 | 25 |
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| 9 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22:23 | -1 | 24 |
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| 10 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 24 |
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| 11 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | -4 | 24 |
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| 12 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31:31 | 0 | 22 |
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| 13 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21:25 | -4 | 22 |
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| 14 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21:22 | -1 | 21 |
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| 15 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26:29 | -3 | 21 |
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| 16 |
Gremio
Home
|
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20:23 | -3 | 21 |
?
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| 17 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22:29 | -7 | 20 |
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| 18 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21:29 | -8 | 18 |
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| 19 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
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| 20 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17:33 | -16 | 9 |
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