POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
18.04.2026 15:30
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla
Referee: D. Sylwestrzak
Gornik Zabrze
Match Timeline
Korona Kielce
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Konrad Matuszewski
Korona Kielce
🔄
46'
E. Janza ↔ O. Zmrzly
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
64'
P. Olkowski ↔ M. Sacek
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
64'
Y. Ikia Dimi ↔ K. Lukoszek
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
64'
M. Remacle ↔ S. Gustafson
Korona Kielce
🟨
70'
Tamar Svetlin
Korona Kielce
71'
R. Janicki · Assist: O. Zmrzly
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
76'
L. Ambros ↔ L. Sadilek
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
78'
S. Davidovic ↔ H. Zwozny
Korona Kielce
🔄
78'
D. Blanik ↔ M. Cebula
Korona Kielce
🟨
79'
Pau Resta
Korona Kielce
🔄
82'
S. Liseth ↔ L. Podolski
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
84'
M. Stepinski ↔ V. Nikolov
Korona Kielce
🔄
84'
W. Dlugosz ↔ Antonin
Korona Kielce

Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Gornik Zabrze Win 60.3%
Draw 14.4%
Korona Kielce Win 25.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gornik Zabrze1.34
Korona Kielce1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze
WWDLW
40 GF / 33 GA
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
WLDWL
36 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
15
BTTS Yes
15
14
Over 2.5
13
4.32
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 28 matches
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 28 matches
Gornik Zabrze Statistic Korona Kielce
12 Wins 10
7 Draws 7
9 Losses 11
40 Goals For 36
33 Goals Against 34
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
15 BTTS Yes 15
20 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 7
4.32 Shots On Goal 3.82
15.54 Total Shots 14.93
5.46 Corners 5.14
50.9% Ball Possession 45.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gornik Zabrze expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Korona Kielce in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Korona Kielce having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Korona Kielce. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Gornik Zabrze Analysis

Gornik Zabrze arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 43 points after 28 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 40:33 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by O. Sow (7 goals), S. Liseth (7 goals), Patrik Hellebrand (4 goals), with creative support from J. Kubicki (4 assists), Lukáš Ambros (4 assists), Maksym Khlan (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Korona Kielce Analysis

Korona Kielce are currently 11 in the standings with 37 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, while the 36:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Dawid Błanik (7 goals), K. Sotiriou (5 goals), M. Pieczek (4 goals), with creative support from Dawid Błanik (3 assists), K. Sotiriou (2 assists), M. Pieczek (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Gornik Zabrze won 8 times, Korona Kielce won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:14 from Gornik Zabrze's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3 / Korona Kielce 3-4-3
H2H summary: Gornik Zabrze wins 8, draws 5, Korona Kielce wins 1

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation