SENEGAL LIGUE 1
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
60.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gorée Win 74%
Draw 5.2%
HLM Win 20.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gorée0.94
HLM0.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gorée Gorée
WWDLW
25 GF / 9 GA
HLM HLM
WLDWL
15 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.6
0.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.84
5
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gorée Gorée 25 matches
HLM HLM 25 matches
Gorée Statistic HLM
10 Wins 4
12 Draws 15
3 Losses 6
25 Goals For 15
9 Goals Against 21
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.6
0.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.84
5 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 2
17 Clean Sheets 12
12 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Gorée's more proactive style and HLM's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring HLM. Gorée arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 42 points compared to HLM in 11 on 27, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward HLM having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gorée Analysis

Gorée arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 42 points after 25 matches. The record of 10 wins, 12 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 25:9 goal balance, points toward mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

HLM Analysis

HLM sit 11 with 27 points after 25 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 15 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 15:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Gorée won 3 times, HLM won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:2 from Gorée's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
H2H summary: Gorée wins 3, draws 1, HLM wins 0
Last matches: Gorée
04.06.26
Lig
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
22.05.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
W
13.05.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
0
0
D
26.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Casa Sport
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Jaraaf
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Pikine
1
0
W
30.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Sonacos
2
1
W
25.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Génération Foot
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Gorée
La Linguère
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Gorée
DSC
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Guédiawaye
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Teungueth
0
1
L
15.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
31.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AJEL
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Gorée
HLM
5
0
W
07.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
3
0
W
Last matches: HLM
04.06.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
2
1
W
22.05.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
17.05.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
1
L
13.05.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
03.05.26
Lig
HLM
Guédiawaye
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lig
HLM
Teungueth
0
1
L
20.04.26
Lig
HLM
Stade de Mbour
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
HLM
Wally Daan
1
2
L
29.03.26
Lig
HLM
AJEL
3
0
W
25.03.26
Lig
HLM
Ouakam
0
1
L
15.03.26
Lig
HLM
DSC
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
HLM
AS Camberene
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
HLM
Casa Sport
0
0
D
22.02.26
Lig
HLM
Jaraaf
0
0
D
15.02.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
0
0
D
09.02.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
3
L
25.01.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
HLM
Gorée
0
5
L
07.01.26
Lig
HLM
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
H2H: Gorée vs HLM
10.05.26
H2H
Gorée
HLM
1
1
D
11.01.26
H2H
HLM
Gorée
0
5
W
26.04.25
H2H
Gorée
HLM
1
0
W
01.12.24
H2H
HLM
Gorée
1
2
W
Last matches: Gorée
04.06.26
Lig
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
17.05.26
Lig
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
W
18.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Jaraaf
0
0
D
30.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Sonacos
2
1
W
15.03.26
Lig
Gorée
La Linguère
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Gorée
DSC
1
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Teungueth
0
1
L
07.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
24.01.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
0
D
07.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
3
0
W
28.12.25
Lig
Gorée
Casa Sport
1
1
D
14.12.25
Lig
Gorée
Pikine
0
0
D
29.11.25
Lig
Gorée
Génération Foot
2
1
W
08.11.25
Lig
Gorée
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
H2H at home: Gorée
10.05.26
H2H
Gorée
HLM
1
1
D
26.04.25
H2H
Gorée
HLM
1
0
W
Last matches: HLM
22.05.26
Lig
HLM
Sonacos
0
0
D
25.04.26
Lig
HLM
Teungueth
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
HLM
Wally Daan
1
2
L
25.03.26
Lig
HLM
Ouakam
0
1
L
15.03.26
Lig
HLM
DSC
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
HLM
Casa Sport
0
0
D
15.02.26
Lig
HLM
Pikine
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
HLM
Génération Foot
0
3
L
25.01.26
Lig
HLM
La Linguère
0
0
D
07.01.26
Lig
HLM
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
21.12.25
Lig
HLM
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
07.12.25
Lig
HLM
AJEL
1
1
D
16.11.25
Lig
HLM
AS Camberene
0
0
D
02.11.25
Lig
HLM
Jaraaf
1
1
D
H2H away: HLM
10.05.26
H2H
Gorée
HLM
1
1
D
26.04.25
H2H
Gorée
HLM
1
0
L