BRAZIL SERIE B
28.08.2026 22:30
Estádio da Serrinha
Referee: J. Pinheiro
Goias
Match Timeline
São Bernardo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
Luquinhas · Assist: Djalma Silva
Goias
🔄
21'
Rodrigo Soares ↔ Marcos Vinicius
Goias
59'
Pedrinho · Assist: Para
São Bernardo
🔄
65'
Filipe Machado ↔ Wellington Rato
Goias
🔄
66'
Foguinho ↔ Lucas Lima
São Bernardo
🔄
67'
Romisson ↔ Hyoran
São Bernardo
67'
Kadu
Goias
🔄
76'
Pedrinho ↔ Breninho
São Bernardo
🔄
76'
Pedro Vitor ↔ Leo Jaba
São Bernardo
🔄
79'
Felipe Clemente ↔ Danilo Cunha
Goias
🔄
79'
Lourenco ↔ Juninho
Goias
🔄
79'
Jean Carlos ↔ Baldoria
Goias
🔄
82'
Felipe Garcia ↔ Daniel Amorim
São Bernardo
🟨
84'
Wellington Rato
Goias

Goias vs São Bernardo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.1%
Odds 1.88
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.1%
1.88
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
2.28
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.16
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Goias Win 50.1%
Draw 14.3%
São Bernardo Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Goias1.03
São Bernardo1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Goias Goias
WWDLW
23 GF / 29 GA
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WLDWL
33 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
9
BTTS Yes
15
7
Over 2.5
11
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Goias Goias 24 matches
São Bernardo São Bernardo 24 matches
Goias Statistic São Bernardo
9 Wins 8
6 Draws 8
9 Losses 8
23 Goals For 33
29 Goals Against 27
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
9 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 17
7 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 5
3.5 Shots On Goal 4.33
10.92 Total Shots 11.96
4.17 Corners 4.58
50.8% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with São Bernardo's more proactive style and Goias's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward São Bernardo. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Goias expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and São Bernardo in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward São Bernardo having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Goias Analysis

Goias approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 32 points from 23 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 22:28, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Anselmo Ramon (5 goals), Kadu (5 goals), Gegê (2 goals), with creative support from Esli García (3 assists), Diego Caito (2 assists), Cadu (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo sit 13 with 31 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 32:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Vitor (3 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), with creative support from Romisson (4 assists), Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Goias won 0 times, São Bernardo won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from Goias's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Goias 4-2-3-1 / São Bernardo 4-3-3
H2H summary: Goias wins 0, draws 0, São Bernardo wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 48:25 23 50
D W W W W
2 28 14 8 6 30:17 13 50
L W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
4 27 14 5 8 39:30 9 47
W L W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 28 12 10 6 36:26 10 46
W W D W W
7 27 12 7 8 36:33 3 43
W W D D L
8 27 12 6 9 40:39 1 42
L W W L W
9 27 10 11 6 36:26 10 41
W L L W L
10 28 10 10 8 33:30 3 40
W L W L L
11 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
12 27 10 7 10 32:30 2 37
L W W D W
13
Goias Home
27 10 6 11 25:33 -8 36
L L W D L
14 27 9 8 10 37:31 6 35
L W L D D
15 28 8 8 12 29:36 -7 32
D L W L W
16 27 8 7 12 30:32 -2 31
L L L L D
17 27 8 5 14 28:35 -7 29
L L L W W
18 27 6 7 14 32:39 -7 25
W L D L D
19 27 4 5 18 21:46 -25 17
W L W L L
20 27 2 4 21 16:56 -40 10
L L L L L
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