FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
17.08.2026 15:00
Markku.fi Areena
Referee: A. Munukka
Gnistan
Match Timeline
Ilves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
S. Vaisanen
Gnistan
14'
T. Hytonen · Assist: O. Pettersson
Ilves
🟨
24'
Bogdan Milovanov
Gnistan
41'
A. Popovitch · Assist: K. Wallius
Ilves
🟨
43'
Sauli Väisänen
Ilves
45'
A. Akinyemi · Assist: G. Europaeus
Gnistan
🔄
46'
S. Ylatupa ↔ A. Atarah
Gnistan
🟨
56'
Sauli Väisänen
Ilves
🟥
56'
Sauli Väisänen
Ilves
🔄
62'
Y. Sacko ↔ Y. Raap
Ilves
🔄
62'
J. Kilo ↔ S. Baranov
Ilves
🔄
63'
A. Akinyemi ↔ D. Perez
Gnistan
🔄
78'
O. Pettersson ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
🔄
78'
A. Popovitch ↔ R. Riski
Ilves
81'
B. Milovanov
Gnistan
🔄
86'
Ruxi ↔ S. Eremenko
Gnistan
🔄
86'
R. Eremenko ↔ J. Latonen
Gnistan
🔄
89'
T. Miettunen ↔ M. Stjopin
Ilves
🟨
90+2'
Danny Pérez
Gnistan
🟨
90+3'
Jardell Kanga
Ilves
🔄
90+4'
↔ J. Ojala
Gnistan

Gnistan vs Ilves Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gnistan Win 69%
Draw 5.6%
Ilves Win 25.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gnistan1.33
Ilves1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gnistan Gnistan
WWDLW
34 GF / 34 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
49 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
14
2.84
Shots on Goal
2.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gnistan Gnistan 25 matches
Ilves Ilves 29 matches
Gnistan Statistic Ilves
9 Wins 12
6 Draws 6
10 Losses 11
34 Goals For 49
34 Goals Against 37
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
12 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 6
2.84 Shots On Goal 2.22
8.26 Total Shots 4.52
2.53 Corners 1.78
32.7% Ball Possession 22.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Gnistan's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ilves. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan are currently 6 in the standings with 29 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 29:24 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Akinyemi (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Ilves Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Ilves have collected 25 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 31:31 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 3 times, Ilves won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:24 from Gnistan's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.82 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Gnistan 3-4-2-1 / Ilves 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Gnistan wins 3, draws 2, Ilves wins 6

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9
Ilves Away
22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)