FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Markku.fi Areena
Referee: A. Munukka
Gnistan
Match Timeline
Ilves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
S. Vaisanen
Gnistan
14'
T. Hytonen · Assist: O. Pettersson
Ilves
🟨
24'
B. Milovanov
Gnistan
41'
A. Popovitch · Assist: K. Wallius
Ilves
🟨
43'
S. Vaisanen
Ilves
45'
A. Akinyemi · Assist: G. Europaeus
Gnistan
🔄
46'
S. Ylatupa ↔ A. Atarah
Gnistan
🟨
56'
S. Vaisanen
Ilves
🟥
56'
S. Vaisanen
Ilves
🔄
62'
Y. Sacko ↔ Y. Raap
Ilves
🔄
62'
J. Kilo ↔ S. Baranov
Ilves
🔄
63'
A. Akinyemi ↔ D. Perez
Gnistan
🔄
78'
A. Popovitch ↔ R. Riski
Ilves
🔄
78'
O. Pettersson ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
81'
B. Milovanov
Gnistan
🔄
86'
R. Eremenko ↔ J. Latonen
Gnistan
🔄
86'
Ruxi ↔ S. Eremenko
Gnistan
🔄
89'
T. Miettunen ↔ M. Stjopin
Ilves
🟨
90+2'
D. Perez
Gnistan
🟨
90+3'
J. Kanga
Ilves
🔄
90+4'
A. Atarah ↔ J. Ojala
Gnistan

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69%
Odds 2.44
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 2.50
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.43
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69%
2.44
BTTS No
50.8%
2.50
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
2.43
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.85
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60
Correct Score 2-0
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Gnistan Win 69%
Draw 5.6%
Ilves Win 25.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gnistan1.33
Ilves1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gnistan Gnistan
WWDLW
34 GF / 34 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
49 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
14
2.84
Shots on Goal
2.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gnistan Gnistan 25 matches
Ilves Ilves 29 matches
Gnistan Statistic Ilves
9 Wins 12
6 Draws 6
10 Losses 11
34 Goals For 49
34 Goals Against 37
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
12 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 6
2.84 Shots On Goal 2.22
8.26 Total Shots 4.52
2.53 Corners 1.78
32.7% Ball Possession 22.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Gnistan's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ilves. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan are currently 6 in the standings with 29 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 29:24 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Akinyemi (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Ilves Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Ilves have collected 25 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 31:31 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 2 times, Ilves won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:22 from Gnistan's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.7 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Gnistan 3-4-2-1 / Ilves 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Gnistan wins 2, draws 2, Ilves wins 6

Lineups

Gnistan
Formation
Ilves
Matej Juricka
Matej Juricka
Rachide Gnanou
Rachide Gnanou
Ayo Obileye
Ayo Obileye
Ruxi
Bogdan Milovanov
Bogdan Milovanov
Adam Jouhi
Adam Jouhi
Gabriel Europaeus
🎯
Gabriel Europaeus
Edmund Arko-Mensah
Edmund Arko-Mensah
Saku Ylätupa
Saku Ylätupa
Adeleke Akinyemi
Adeleke Akinyemi
Roman Eremenko
Roman Eremenko
Faris Krkalić
Faris Krkalić
Tatu Miettunen
Tatu Miettunen
Sauli Väisänen
Sauli Väisänen
Matias Rale
Matias Rale
Oliver Pettersson
Oliver Pettersson
Yacouba Sacko
Yacouba Sacko
Anton Popovitch
Anton Popovitch
Kalle Wallius
🎯
Kalle Wallius
Jardell Kanga
Jardell Kanga
Teemu Hytönen
Teemu Hytönen
Jesse Kilo
Jesse Kilo
Gnistan 3-4-3
Starting XI
95
Matej Juricka
G
24
Rachide Gnanou
D
67
Ayo Obileye
D
3
Ruxi
D
19
Bogdan Milovanov
⚽ 81' 🟨 24'
D
31
Adam Jouhi
M
15
Gabriel Europaeus
🎯 45'
M
12
Edmund Arko-Mensah
D
23
Saku Ylätupa
↓ 46'
M
17
Adeleke Akinyemi
⚽ 45' ↓ 63'
F
26
Roman Eremenko
↓ 86'
F
Substitutes
7
Artur Atarah
↑ 46' ↓ 90+4'
F
11
Danny Pérez
↑ 63' 🟨 90+2'
F
14
Sergei Eremenko
↑ 86'
M
10
Joakim Latonen
↑ 86'
F
40
Juhani Ojala
↑ 90+4'
D
13
Oskar Lyberopoulos
G
33
Samuel Heikari
D
27
Otto Hannula
M
Ilves 3-4-3
Starting XI
12
Faris Krkalić
G
16
Tatu Miettunen
↓ 89'
D
5
Sauli Väisänen
⚽ 4' 🟨 43' 🟨 56' 🟥 56'
D
3
Matias Rale
D
4
Oliver Pettersson
D
33
Yacouba Sacko
M
14
Anton Popovitch
⚽ 41' ↓ 78'
M
13
Kalle Wallius
🎯 41'
M
30
Jardell Kanga
🟨 90+3'
M
9
Teemu Hytönen
⚽ 14'
F
28
Jesse Kilo
↓ 62'
M
Substitutes
6
Yiandro Raap
↑ 62'
D
17
Stanislav Baranov
↑ 62'
M
19
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba
↑ 78'
D
10
Roope Riski
↑ 78'
F
8
Maksim Stjopin
↑ 89'
M
1
Otso Virtanen
G
24
Ville Kumpu
D
15
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
M
45
Elias Tamminen
F
Last matches: Gnistan
07.08.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
2
2
D
01.08.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
26.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
1
W
18.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
Last matches: Ilves
13.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
1
1
D
09.08.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
06.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
02.08.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
0
1
L
30.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
1
0
W
26.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
3
1
W
16.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
3
1
W
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
H2H: Gnistan vs Ilves
23.05.26
H2H
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
L
24.01.26
H2H
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
L
25.10.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
1
3
L
23.09.25
H2H
Ilves
Gnistan
3
2
L
04.08.25
H2H
Ilves
Gnistan
2
2
D
01.06.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
28.05.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
3
0
W
28.03.25
H2H
Ilves
Gnistan
4
0
L
01.09.24
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
1
1
D
13.04.24
H2H
Ilves
Gnistan
4
6
W
Last matches: Gnistan
01.08.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
H2H at home: Gnistan
25.10.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
1
3
L
01.06.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
28.05.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
3
0
W
01.09.24
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
1
1
D
Last matches: Ilves
06.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
02.08.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
0
1
L
23.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
3
1
W
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H away: Ilves
25.10.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
1
3
W
01.06.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
W
28.05.25
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
3
0
L
01.09.24
H2H
Gnistan
Ilves
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.77
Draw 3.72
Home 2.44
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.29
Draw 2.50
Home 2.94
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.18
Over 2.5 1.59
Over 2.75 1.72
Over 3.0 1.93
Over 3.25 2.19
Over 3.5 2.44
Over 4.5 4.25
Under 1.5 5.06
Under 2.5 2.43
Under 2.75 2.18
Under 3.0 1.93
Under 3.25 1.72
Under 3.5 1.58
Under 4.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 3.40
Home 2.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.40
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.62
Home 2.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.38
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 5.00
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.71
Draw 3.54
Home 2.38
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.24
Draw 2.25
Home 2.85
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.86
Draw 2.69
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.25 1.07
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 1.75 1.18
Over 2.0 1.22
Over 2.25 1.42
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 2.75 1.70
Over 3.0 1.85
Over 3.25 2.06
Over 3.5 2.29
Over 3.75 2.63
Over 4.0 3.28
Over 4.25 3.58
Over 4.5 3.90
Over 4.75 4.75
Over 5.0 6.35
Over 5.5 6.90
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Under 0.5 13.20
Under 1.0 9.70
Under 1.25 6.01
Under 1.5 4.45
Under 1.75 4.12
Under 2.0 3.68
Under 2.25 2.79
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 2.75 2.10
Under 3.0 1.82
Under 3.25 1.62
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 3.75 1.38
Under 4.0 1.25
Under 4.25 1.21
Under 4.5 1.18
Under 4.75 1.12
Under 5.0 1.06
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 3.55
Home 2.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.05
Draw 2.28
Home 2.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 2.70
Home 2.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.0 1.25
Over 2.25 1.42
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 2.75 1.72
Over 3.0 1.94
Over 3.25 2.20
Over 3.5 2.45
Over 3.75 2.88
Over 4.0 3.60
Over 4.25 3.90
Over 4.5 4.20
Over 4.75 5.10
Over 5.0 6.75
Under 1.5 4.25
Under 2.0 3.50
Under 2.25 2.63
Under 2.5 2.18
Under 2.75 1.96
Under 3.0 1.73
Under 3.25 1.57
Under 3.5 1.47
Under 3.75 1.35
Under 4.0 1.23
Under 4.25 1.20
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 4.75 1.12
Under 5.0 1.06

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 7 1 36:18 18 43
W D W W W
2 20 10 8 2 28:16 12 38
W D W L D
3 20 10 4 6 32:23 9 34
W W L W W
4 20 9 5 6 32:26 6 32
W D L W W
5 20 8 6 6 28:21 7 30
L W L L L
6 20 9 3 8 24:25 -1 30
L L W D L
7 20 8 5 7 27:22 5 29
W D W L L
8 20 7 5 8 23:18 5 26
L D W L W
9
Ilves Away
20 7 4 9 33:34 -1 25
L W L W W
10 20 4 6 10 24:31 -7 18
L D W L L
11 20 3 6 11 18:41 -23 15
L L L W D
12 20 1 5 14 11:41 -30 8
W L L D L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)