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POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
17.10.2026 15:30
Stadion GKS Katowice
Referee: Szymon Marciniak

GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.04
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.8%
2.04 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.58 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.6%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
GKS Katowice Win 62.8%
Draw 9%
Pogon Szczecin Win 28.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
GKS Katowice1.6
Pogon Szczecin1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
GKS Katowice GKS Katowice
WWDLW
52 GF / 33 GA
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
WLDWL
26 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1
15
BTTS Yes
8
18
Over 2.5
8
4.14
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

GKS Katowice GKS Katowice 26 matches
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 18 matches
GKS Katowice Statistic Pogon Szczecin
15 Wins 9
2 Draws 5
9 Losses 4
52 Goals For 26
33 Goals Against 18
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1
15 BTTS Yes 8
24 Over 1.5 14
18 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 6
4.14 Shots On Goal 4.56
11.57 Total Shots 12.78
3.71 Corners 3.44
39.9% Ball Possession 42.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Pogon Szczecin. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with GKS Katowice expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Pogon Szczecin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Pogon Szczecin having the stronger overall control.

GKS Katowice Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 15 points from 9 games, GKS Katowice bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 20:14, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by I. Shkurin (7 goals), B. Nowak (3 goals), A. Jędrych (2 goals), with creative support from B. Nowak (5 assists), Borja Galán (2 assists), I. Shkurin (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Pogon Szczecin Analysis

Pogon Szczecin sit 6 with 15 points after 8 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 12:6 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Churlinov (2 goals), P. Mukairu (1 goals), Léo Borges (1 goals), with creative support from P. Mukairu (2 assists), P. Dziczek (2 assists), M. Wojciechowski (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, GKS Katowice won 2 times, Pogon Szczecin won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from GKS Katowice's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
Predicted formations: GKS Katowice 3-4-3 / Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2
H2H summary: GKS Katowice wins 2, draws 1, Pogon Szczecin wins 1

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 19:9 10 25
W D W W W
2 9 7 1 1 21:8 13 22
W W L W W
3 10 6 4 0 21:8 13 22
W W D W D
4 9 5 3 1 14:6 8 18
W W W D D
5 10 6 0 4 22:15 7 18
W W W L L
6 11 5 3 3 17:14 3 18
D L W W D
7 10 5 1 4 18:16 2 16
W L W W W
8 10 4 3 3 12:12 0 15
L W L W D
9 10 4 3 3 12:13 -1 15
L L W W D
10 9 4 0 5 13:16 -3 12
L L L W L
11 10 3 2 5 12:15 -3 11
W L L L L
12 9 3 2 4 9:15 -6 11
L W W D L
13 11 1 7 3 14:15 -1 10
D L D D D
14 10 2 3 5 12:17 -5 9
W D L L L
15 11 2 2 7 16:21 -5 8
L L W D L
16 10 2 2 6 9:23 -14 8
L L L D W
17 10 1 3 6 12:19 -7 6
L L L L D
18 11 2 0 9 15:26 -11 6
W L L L W
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation