ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
04.05.2026 20:00
Victor Legrotaglie
Referee: B. Amiconi
Gimnasia M.
Match Timeline
Defensa Y Justicia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
David Martínez
Defensa Y Justicia
12'
A. Portillo · Assist: J. Gutierrez
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
18'
B. Armoa ↔ L. Cingolani
Gimnasia M.
30'
E. Munoz
Gimnasia M.
🟨
34'
Esteban Fernández
Gimnasia M.
🔄
46'
E. Fernandez ↔ J. Ceballos
Gimnasia M.
🔄
46'
D. Martinez ↔ D. Fernandez
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
57'
Matias Recalde
Gimnasia M.
🔄
60'
C. Perez ↔ A. Hausch
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
60'
D. Caceres ↔ L. Gonzalez
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
62'
B. Andrada ↔ A. Modica
Gimnasia M.
🔄
63'
V. Simoni ↔ L. Carrera
Gimnasia M.
🔄
71'
S. Sosa ↔ E. Banega
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
72'
F. Lencioni ↔ I. Sabatini
Gimnasia M.
🔄
72'
R. Botta ↔ D. Barbona
Defensa Y Justicia
73'
L. Cingolani · Assist: I. Sabatini
Gimnasia M.
🟨
90+1'
Emiliano Amor
Defensa Y Justicia

Gimnasia M. vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia M. Win 32.8%
Draw 10.5%
Defensa Y Justicia Win 56.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia M.0.92
Defensa Y Justicia1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M.
WWDLW
12 GF / 21 GA
Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia
WLDWL
20 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
7
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
6
3.53
Shots on Goal
3.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 16 matches
Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia 17 matches
Gimnasia M. Statistic Defensa Y Justicia
4 Wins 6
5 Draws 7
7 Losses 4
12 Goals For 20
21 Goals Against 20
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
7 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 12
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 5
3.53 Shots On Goal 3.6
10.27 Total Shots 9.8
3.33 Corners 4
41.4% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Defensa Y Justicia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 16 with 115 points while Gimnasia M. sit 26 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gimnasia M. expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Defensa Y Justicia in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Defensa Y Justicia having the stronger overall control. Defensa Y Justicia arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Defensa Y Justicia.

Gimnasia M. Analysis

Gimnasia M. sit 26 with 16 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses, together with goals at 0:0, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Modica (4 goals), F. Lencioni (2 goals), B. Armoa (1 goals), with creative support from F. Lencioni (5 assists), S. Rodriguez (1 assists), F. Antonini (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Defensa Y Justicia Analysis

With 115 points from 88 games and a place of 16, Defensa Y Justicia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted - wins, - draws, and - defeats, and the 0:0 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Molinas (3 goals), Juan Manuel Gutiérrez (3 goals), A. Portillo (2 goals), with creative support from A. Molinas (4 assists), Juan Manuel Gutiérrez (2 assists), A. Portillo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia M. won 1 times, Defensa Y Justicia won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Gimnasia M.'s perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: Gimnasia M. 4-3-3 / Defensa Y Justicia 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Gimnasia M. wins 1, draws 0, Defensa Y Justicia wins 0

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
D L W L L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D D D W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D D D D W
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D D L L W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L D W L L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
L D L W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L D W L L
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
W W L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W D W W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W W D W L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W W W L W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L W D W L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D L L W W
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W W L D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D L W L
Knockout Phase