ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO
--.--.---- --:--
Priestfield Stadium
Referee: O. Mackey
Gillingham
Match Timeline
Grimsby
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
42'
A. Cook · Assist: K. Green
Grimsby
🟨
45+3'
Armani Little
Gillingham
🟨
45'
Justin Amaluzor
Grimsby
55'
G. McCleary · Assist: A. Little
Gillingham
🔄
66'
J. Walker ↔ G. D. Turi
Grimsby
74'
J. Kabia
Grimsby
🔄
76'
J. Amaluzor ↔ D. Burns
Grimsby
🔄
76'
J. Kabia ↔ C. Vernam
Grimsby
🔄
76'
R. Staunton ↔ J. Sweeney
Grimsby
🔄
78'
C. Masterson ↔ S. Vokes
Gillingham
🔄
79'
L. Cirino ↔ B. Dack
Gillingham
80'
K. Green · Assist: C. Vernam
Grimsby
85'
C. Vernam · Assist: K. Green
Grimsby
🔄
87'
G. McCleary ↔ T. Akomeah
Gillingham
🔄
88'
N. Khumbeni ↔ H. Waldock
Gillingham
🔄
88'
C. Oduor ↔ T. Warren
Grimsby
🟨
90+3'
Ronan Hale
Gillingham

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
53.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Gillingham Win 15%
Draw 20.6%
Grimsby Win 64.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gillingham1.13
Grimsby1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gillingham Gillingham
WWDLW
50 GF / 63 GA
Grimsby Grimsby
WLDWL
73 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.59
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
24
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
22
4.16
Shots on Goal
4.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gillingham Gillingham 44 matches
Grimsby Grimsby 46 matches
Gillingham Statistic Grimsby
12 Wins 22
15 Draws 11
17 Losses 13
50 Goals For 73
63 Goals Against 51
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
24 BTTS Yes 22
31 Over 1.5 31
19 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 16
10 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 9
4.16 Shots On Goal 4.58
12.95 Total Shots 13.58
5.19 Corners 6.16
47.1% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Grimsby's more proactive style and Gillingham's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Grimsby carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 68 points while Gillingham sit 17 on 50, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Grimsby. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gillingham expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Grimsby in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grimsby having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Gillingham Analysis

With 50 points from 43 games and a place of 17, Gillingham still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 14 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 48:60 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Dack (7 goals), A. Little (5 goals), R. Hale (5 goals), with creative support from Max Clark (6 assists), R. Hutton (3 assists), Garath McCleary (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grimsby Analysis

Grimsby sit 8 with 68 points after 42 league matches. Their overall return of 19 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 62:45 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Kabia (13 goals), K. Green (11 goals), C. Vernam (9 goals), with creative support from C. Vernam (9 assists), Darragh Burns (5 assists), J. Walker (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Gillingham won 1 times, Grimsby won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:12 from Gillingham's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (85%)
Predicted formations: Gillingham 4-2-3-1 / Grimsby 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Gillingham wins 1, draws 3, Grimsby wins 4
Stats
Gillingham Gillingham
Grimsby Grimsby
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
5
5 Corner Kicks 3
9 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 1
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Goal 6
6 Shots off Goal 3
0 Blocked Shots 5
6 Shots insidebox 10
3 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
298 Total passes 320
195 Passes accurate 217
0.98 expected_goals 2.58
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Gillingham
Formation
Grimsby
G. Morris
G. Morris
R. Hutton
R. Hutton
S. Gale
S. Gale
C. Masterson
C. Masterson
M. Clark
M. Clark
A. Little
🎯
A. Little
N. Khumbeni
N. Khumbeni
S. Palmer-Houlden
S. Palmer-Houlden
G. McCleary
G. McCleary
L. Cirino
L. Cirino
R. Hale
R. Hale
J. Smith
J. Smith
H. Rodgers
H. Rodgers
M. Kacurri
M. Kacurri
C. McJannet
C. McJannet
R. Staunton
R. Staunton
J. Walker
J. Walker
J. Amaluzor
J. Amaluzor
K. Green
🎯
K. Green
C. Oduor
C. Oduor
J. Kabia
J. Kabia
A. Cook
A. Cook
Gillingham 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
G. Morris
G
2
R. Hutton
D
30
S. Gale
D
4
C. Masterson
↓ 78'
D
3
M. Clark
D
8
A. Little
🎯 55' 🟨 45+3'
M
27
N. Khumbeni
↓ 88'
M
12
S. Palmer-Houlden
M
7
G. McCleary
⚽ 55' ↓ 87'
M
32
L. Cirino
↓ 79'
M
38
R. Hale
🟨 90+3'
F
Substitutes
25
J. Turner
G
19
S. Vokes
↑ 78'
F
10
J. Williams
M
23
B. Dack
↑ 79'
M
9
J. Andrews
F
15
T. Akomeah
↑ 87'
D
24
H. Waldock
↑ 88'
M
Grimsby 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
31
J. Smith
G
5
H. Rodgers
D
2
M. Kacurri
D
17
C. McJannet
D
16
R. Staunton
↓ 76'
D
7
J. Walker
↓ 66'
M
14
J. Amaluzor
↓ 76'
4
K. Green
⚽ 80' 🎯 42' 🎯 85'
M
29
C. Oduor
↓ 88'
M
9
J. Kabia
⚽ 74' ↓ 76'
39
A. Cook
⚽ 42'
F
Substitutes
1
C. Pym
G
21
T. Warren
↑ 88'
D
18
D. Burns
↑ 76'
M
15
G. D. Turi
↑ 66'
M
30
C. Vernam
⚽ 85' 🎯 80' ↑ 76'
F
3
J. Sweeney
↑ 76'
D
42
H. Booth
F
Last matches: Gillingham
31.07.26
Fri
Gillingham
Ebbsfleet United
2
1
W
21.07.26
Fri
Gillingham
Millwall
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Gillingham
Charlton
0
1
L
14.07.26
Fri
Gillingham
Dover
3
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
1
0
W
25.04.26
Lea
Gillingham
Barnet
2
6
L
14.04.26
Lea
Gillingham
Cheltenham
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Gillingham
Salford City
0
0
D
06.04.26
Lea
Gillingham
Accrington ST
2
0
W
03.04.26
Lea
Gillingham
Walsall
2
2
D
28.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Crawley Town
0
2
L
21.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Bristol Rovers
1
2
L
17.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Swindon Town
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Cambridge United
0
5
L
10.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Milton Keynes Dons
1
5
L
07.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lea
Gillingham
Barrow
1
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Gillingham
Oldham
0
3
L
17.02.26
Lea
Gillingham
Chesterfield
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Gillingham
Crewe
0
1
L
Last matches: Grimsby
04.08.26
Fri
Grimsby
Grimsby Borough
3
2
W
01.08.26
Fri
Grimsby
Wigan
2
0
W
29.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Boston United
0
0
D
28.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Lincoln
5
1
W
25.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Hartlepool
3
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Zorya Luhansk
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Cleethorpes Town
0
0
D
15.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Salford City
2
2
D
10.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Salford City
1
2
L
02.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Tranmere
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Swindon Town
4
0
W
21.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Cambridge United
2
1
W
14.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Chesterfield
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Crewe
3
2
W
06.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Crawley Town
2
0
W
03.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Harrogate Town
1
3
L
21.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Barrow
5
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Oldham
0
1
L
07.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Bromley
1
1
D
H2H: Gillingham vs Grimsby
18.04.26
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
1
4
L
18.10.25
H2H
Grimsby
Gillingham
1
0
L
28.01.25
H2H
Grimsby
Gillingham
1
1
D
01.10.24
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
0
1
L
16.03.24
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
1
1
D
02.09.23
H2H
Grimsby
Gillingham
2
0
L
14.02.23
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
2
1
W
13.09.22
H2H
Grimsby
Gillingham
1
1
D
Last matches: Gillingham
21.07.26
Fri
Gillingham
Millwall
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Gillingham
Charlton
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lea
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
1
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Gillingham
Accrington ST
2
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Bristol Rovers
1
2
L
17.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Swindon Town
0
2
L
10.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Milton Keynes Dons
1
5
L
07.03.26
Lea
Gillingham
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Gillingham
Oldham
0
3
L
07.02.26
Lea
Gillingham
Tranmere
2
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Gillingham
Bromley
1
4
L
17.01.26
Lea
Gillingham
Newport County
3
2
W
29.12.25
Lea
Gillingham
Colchester
1
1
D
26.12.25
Lea
Gillingham
Cambridge United
1
1
D
13.12.25
Lea
Gillingham
Barrow
2
2
D
22.11.25
Lea
Gillingham
Barnet
1
1
D
15.11.25
Lea
Gillingham
Crawley Town
2
2
D
25.10.25
Lea
Gillingham
Salford City
1
2
L
11.10.25
Lea
Gillingham
Cheltenham
1
1
D
27.09.25
Lea
Gillingham
Harrogate Town
0
1
L
H2H at home: Gillingham
18.04.26
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
1
4
L
01.10.24
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
0
1
L
16.03.24
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
1
1
D
14.02.23
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
2
1
W
Last matches: Grimsby
29.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Boston United
0
0
D
25.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Hartlepool
3
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Zorya Luhansk
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Grimsby
Cleethorpes Town
0
0
D
15.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Salford City
2
2
D
02.05.26
Lea
Grimsby
Tranmere
1
1
D
21.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Cambridge United
2
1
W
14.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Chesterfield
1
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Grimsby
Crawley Town
2
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Grimsby
Oldham
0
1
L
28.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Notts County
1
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Bristol Rovers
1
3
L
07.02.26
Lea
Grimsby
Newport County
0
0
D
27.01.26
Lea
Grimsby
Colchester
1
0
W
24.01.26
Lea
Grimsby
Cheltenham
2
0
W
01.01.26
Lea
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
1
0
W
20.12.25
Lea
Grimsby
Bromley
0
2
L
09.12.25
Lea
Grimsby
Shrewsbury
1
1
D
22.11.25
Lea
Grimsby
Swindon Town
2
2
D
08.11.25
Lea
Grimsby
Barrow
2
2
D
H2H away: Grimsby
18.04.26
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
1
4
W
01.10.24
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
0
1
W
16.03.24
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
1
1
D
14.02.23
H2H
Gillingham
Grimsby
2
1
L

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11 46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation