ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO
18.04.2026 14:00
Priestfield Stadium
Referee: O. Mackey
Gillingham
Match Timeline
Grimsby
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
42'
A. Cook · Assist: K. Green
Grimsby
🟨
45+3'
Armani Little
Gillingham
🟨
45'
Justin Amaluzor
Grimsby
55'
G. McCleary · Assist: A. Little
Gillingham
🔄
66'
J. Walker ↔ G. D. Turi
Grimsby
74'
J. Kabia
Grimsby
🔄
76'
J. Amaluzor ↔ D. Burns
Grimsby
🔄
76'
J. Kabia ↔ C. Vernam
Grimsby
🔄
76'
R. Staunton ↔ J. Sweeney
Grimsby
🔄
78'
C. Masterson ↔ S. Vokes
Gillingham
🔄
79'
L. Cirino ↔ B. Dack
Gillingham
80'
K. Green · Assist: C. Vernam
Grimsby
85'
C. Vernam · Assist: K. Green
Grimsby
🔄
87'
G. McCleary ↔ T. Akomeah
Gillingham
🔄
88'
N. Khumbeni ↔ H. Waldock
Gillingham
🔄
88'
C. Oduor ↔ T. Warren
Grimsby
🟨
90+3'
Ronan Hale
Gillingham

Gillingham vs Grimsby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
53.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Gillingham Win 15%
Draw 20.6%
Grimsby Win 64.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gillingham1.13
Grimsby1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gillingham Gillingham
WWDLW
50 GF / 63 GA
Grimsby Grimsby
WLDWL
73 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.59
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
24
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
22
4.16
Shots on Goal
4.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gillingham Gillingham 44 matches
Grimsby Grimsby 46 matches
Gillingham Statistic Grimsby
12 Wins 22
15 Draws 11
17 Losses 13
50 Goals For 73
63 Goals Against 51
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
24 BTTS Yes 22
31 Over 1.5 31
19 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 16
10 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 9
4.16 Shots On Goal 4.58
12.95 Total Shots 13.58
5.19 Corners 6.16
47.1% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Grimsby's more proactive style and Gillingham's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Grimsby carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 68 points while Gillingham sit 17 on 50, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Grimsby. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gillingham expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Grimsby in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grimsby having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Gillingham Analysis

With 50 points from 43 games and a place of 17, Gillingham still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 14 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 48:60 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Dack (7 goals), A. Little (5 goals), R. Hale (5 goals), with creative support from Max Clark (6 assists), R. Hutton (3 assists), Garath McCleary (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grimsby Analysis

Grimsby sit 8 with 68 points after 42 league matches. Their overall return of 19 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 62:45 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Kabia (13 goals), K. Green (11 goals), C. Vernam (9 goals), with creative support from C. Vernam (9 assists), Darragh Burns (5 assists), J. Walker (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Gillingham won 1 times, Grimsby won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:12 from Gillingham's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (85%)
Predicted formations: Gillingham 4-2-3-1 / Grimsby 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Gillingham wins 1, draws 3, Grimsby wins 4

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11 46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation