GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
14.06.2026 16:00
David Petriashvili Stadium
Referee: G. Kikacheishvili
Gagra
Match Timeline
Dinamo Tbilisi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
A. Andreychuk · Assist: S. Zoidze
Gagra
32'
A. Peikrishvili · Assist: M. Tsintsadze
Gagra
🔄
46'
R. Ramos ↔ I. Siradze
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
46'
L. Tsikolia ↔ A. Yoro
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
62'
A. Peikrishvili ↔ P. Borges
Gagra
🔄
67'
Z. Tchavtchanidze ↔ O. Chochia
Gagra
🔄
69'
B. Osei ↔ N. K. Donkor
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
76'
A. Andreychuk ↔ G. Darsania
Gagra
🔄
76'
M. Vatsadze ↔ K. Doltmurziev
Dinamo Tbilisi
84'
Leo Santos · Assist: N. K. Donkor
Dinamo Tbilisi
🔄
85'
N. Ninua ↔ J. Onomah
Dinamo Tbilisi

Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.9%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gagra Win 29.9%
Draw 4.2%
Dinamo Tbilisi Win 65.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gagra1.13
Dinamo Tbilisi1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gagra Gagra
WWDLW
22 GF / 31 GA
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi
WLDWL
30 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
12
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
10
3.94
Shots on Goal
5.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gagra Gagra 21 matches
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 23 matches
Gagra Statistic Dinamo Tbilisi
5 Wins 7
7 Draws 9
9 Losses 7
22 Goals For 30
31 Goals Against 29
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
12 BTTS Yes 13
17 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 8
3.94 Shots On Goal 5.13
0 Total Shots 0
3.94 Corners 5.31
45.3% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Dinamo Tbilisi's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Dinamo Tbilisi having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Dinamo Tbilisi. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Gagra Analysis

Gagra sit 9 with 17 points after 16 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 15:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Andreychuk (3 goals), D. Mujiri (3 goals), I. Skrypnyk (3 goals), with creative support from Wanderson (5 assists), A. Andreychuk (2 assists), S. Zoidze (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dinamo Tbilisi Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 25 points after 16 matches. They have recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, with a 23:15 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on M. Vatsadze (5 goals), A. Yoro (4 goals), N. K. Donkor (3 goals), with creative support from N. Ninua (7 assists), G. Gvasalia (2 assists), R. Ramos (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gagra won 6 times, Dinamo Tbilisi won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:25 from Gagra's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Gagra 4-4-2 / Dinamo Tbilisi 4-3-3
H2H summary: Gagra wins 6, draws 3, Dinamo Tbilisi wins 6

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 13 8 6 46:36 10 47
W D W W W
2 26 14 4 8 37:28 9 46
W W W L W
3 27 13 7 7 32:23 9 46
L W D L D
4 26 12 9 5 43:29 14 45
W W D D W
5 27 12 4 11 38:30 8 40
W L D W W
6 27 9 9 9 43:34 9 36
L W D D L
7 27 9 5 13 38:52 -14 32
L L L L D
8
Gagra Home
27 6 11 10 25:37 -12 29
D L D L W
9 27 5 10 12 34:43 -9 25
L L D D L
10 27 2 11 14 20:44 -24 17
D L D D W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2