GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
25.04.2026 13:30
Mewa Arena
Referee: Martin Petersen, Germany
FSV Mainz 05
Match Timeline
Bayern München
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
D. Kohr · Assist: K. Sano
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
20'
Dominik Kohr
FSV Mainz 05
29'
P. Nebel
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
33'
Konrad Laimer
Bayern München
45'
S. Becker
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
46'
L. Diaz ↔ M. Olise
Bayern München
🔄
46'
A. Pavlovic ↔ H. Kane
Bayern München
53'
N. Jackson · Assist: K. Laimer
Bayern München
🔄
57'
A. Davies ↔ J. Stanisic
Bayern München
🔄
57'
R. Guerreiro ↔ J. Musiala
Bayern München
🔄
71'
S. Becker ↔ A. Sieb
FSV Mainz 05
73'
M. Olise · Assist: K. Laimer
Bayern München
🔄
77'
B. Ndiaye ↔ J. Tah
Bayern München
🔄
79'
N. Amiri ↔ L. Maloney
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
80'
S. Widmer ↔ A. Caci
FSV Mainz 05
80'
J. Musiala
Bayern München
83'
H. Kane
Bayern München
🔄
85'
P. Nebel ↔ W. Boving
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
85'
D. Kohr ↔ N. Weiper
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
90+7'
Michael Olise
Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Probability Distribution
FSV Mainz 05 Win 31.5%
Draw 3.3%
Bayern München Win 65.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 051.15
Bayern München2.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WWDLW
52 GF / 55 GA
Bayern München Bayern München
WLDWL
149 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
3.47
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
22
BTTS Yes
30
19
Over 2.5
41
3.88
Shots on Goal
8.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 42 matches
Bayern München Bayern München 43 matches
FSV Mainz 05 Statistic Bayern München
15 Wins 37
12 Draws 4
15 Losses 2
52 Goals For 149
55 Goals Against 44
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 3.47
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
22 BTTS Yes 30
32 Over 1.5 43
19 Over 2.5 41
11 Over 3.5 31
9 Clean Sheets 13
13 Failed To Score 0
3.88 Shots On Goal 8.42
12.05 Total Shots 19.3
5.19 Corners 6.14
45.3% Ball Possession 64.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Bayern München's more proactive style and FSV Mainz 05's more cautious structure. Bayern München seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FSV Mainz 05 expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Bayern München in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bayern München having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Bayern München. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Bayern München look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Bayern München carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 79 points while FSV Mainz 05 sit 10 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

FSV Mainz 05 Analysis

From their first 30 matches, FSV Mainz 05 have collected 34 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses, while the 35:44 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on N. Amiri (11 goals), Jae-sung Lee (4 goals), Paul Nebel (4 goals), with creative support from Danny da Costa (3 assists), B. Hollerbach (3 assists), N. Amiri (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Dal, B. Hollerbach, Silas, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Bayern München Analysis

Bayern München approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 79 points after 30 outings. The return of 25 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 105:27, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Kane (32 goals), L. Diaz (15 goals), M. Olise (12 goals), with creative support from M. Olise (18 assists), L. Diaz (13 assists), S. Gnabry (6 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 12 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with C. Kiala, W. Mike, S. Ulreich unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 4 times, Bayern München won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:48 from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. 15 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 4.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2 / Bayern München 4-2-3-1
Missing players: FSV Mainz 05 5, Bayern München 7
H2H summary: FSV Mainz 05 wins 4, draws 1, Bayern München wins 10

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation