Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
65.2%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
79.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
87.6%
|
- |
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
FSV Mainz 05
42 matches
Bayern München
43 matches
| FSV Mainz 05 | Statistic | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wins | 37 |
| 12 | Draws | 4 |
| 15 | Losses | 2 |
| 52 | Goals For | 149 |
| 55 | Goals Against | 44 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 3.47 |
| 1.31 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.02 |
| 22 | BTTS Yes | 30 |
| 32 | Over 1.5 | 43 |
| 19 | Over 2.5 | 41 |
| 11 | Over 3.5 | 31 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 13 |
| 13 | Failed To Score | 0 |
| 3.88 | Shots On Goal | 8.42 |
| 12.05 | Total Shots | 19.3 |
| 5.19 | Corners | 6.14 |
| 45.3% | Ball Possession | 64.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Bayern München's more proactive style and FSV Mainz 05's more cautious structure. Bayern München seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FSV Mainz 05 expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Bayern München in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bayern München having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Bayern München. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Bayern München look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Bayern München carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 79 points while FSV Mainz 05 sit 10 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.
From their first 30 matches, FSV Mainz 05 have collected 34 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses, while the 35:44 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on N. Amiri (11 goals), Jae-sung Lee (4 goals), Paul Nebel (4 goals), with creative support from Danny da Costa (3 assists), B. Hollerbach (3 assists), N. Amiri (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Dal, B. Hollerbach, Silas, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
Bayern München approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 79 points after 30 outings. The return of 25 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 105:27, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Kane (32 goals), L. Diaz (15 goals), M. Olise (12 goals), with creative support from M. Olise (18 assists), L. Diaz (13 assists), S. Gnabry (6 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 12 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with C. Kiala, W. Mike, S. Ulreich unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 4 times, Bayern München won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:48 from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. 15 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 4.73 goals per game.
FSV Mainz 05
8
6
8
4
5
1
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
1899 Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Dortmund
FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Köln
Bayern München
1. FC Köln
Bayern München
VfL Wolfsburg
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern München
1. FC Heidenheim
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern München
Real Madrid
Bayern München
FC St. Pauli
Bayern München
Real Madrid
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
Bayern München
Union Berlin
Bayern München
Atalanta
Bayern München
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern München
Atalanta
Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern München
Werder Bremen
Bayern München
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayern München
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
Samsunspor
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FSV Mainz 05
1899 Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Fiorentina
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
Zrinjski
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Dortmund
FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
Bayern München
VfL Wolfsburg
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern München
FC St. Pauli
Bayern München
Real Madrid
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
Bayern München
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern München
Atalanta
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München
Werder Bremen
Bayern München
Hamburger SV
Bayern München
PSV Eindhoven
Bayern München
RB Leipzig
Bayern München
1. FC Köln
Bayern München
Red Bull Salzburg
Bayern München
1. FC Heidenheim
Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern München
Arsenal
Bayern München
Union Berlin
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern München
Away
|
34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122:36 | 86 | 89 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
| 2 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70:34 | 36 | 73 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66:47 | 19 | 65 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71:49 | 22 | 62 |
D
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65:52 | 13 | 61 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68:47 | 21 | 59 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51:57 | -6 | 47 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61:65 | -4 | 44 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45:61 | -16 | 43 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 10 |
FSV Mainz 05
Home
|
34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44:53 | -9 | 40 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
| 11 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44:58 | -14 | 39 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42:53 | -11 | 38 |
W
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:54 | -14 | 38 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49:63 | -14 | 32 |
L
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37:60 | -23 | 32 |
L
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45:69 | -24 | 29 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41:72 | -31 | 26 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:60 | -31 | 26 |
L
L
L
L
D
|