GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Mewa Arena
Referee: Martin Petersen, Germany
FSV Mainz 05
Match Timeline
Bayern München
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
D. Kohr · Assist: K. Sano
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
20'
Dominik Kohr
FSV Mainz 05
29'
P. Nebel
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
33'
Konrad Laimer
Bayern München
45'
S. Becker
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
46'
L. Diaz ↔ M. Olise
Bayern München
🔄
46'
A. Pavlovic ↔ H. Kane
Bayern München
53'
N. Jackson · Assist: K. Laimer
Bayern München
🔄
57'
A. Davies ↔ J. Stanisic
Bayern München
🔄
57'
R. Guerreiro ↔ J. Musiala
Bayern München
🔄
71'
S. Becker ↔ A. Sieb
FSV Mainz 05
73'
M. Olise · Assist: K. Laimer
Bayern München
🔄
77'
B. Ndiaye ↔ J. Tah
Bayern München
🔄
79'
N. Amiri ↔ L. Maloney
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
80'
S. Widmer ↔ A. Caci
FSV Mainz 05
80'
J. Musiala
Bayern München
83'
H. Kane
Bayern München
🔄
85'
P. Nebel ↔ W. Boving
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
85'
D. Kohr ↔ N. Weiper
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
90+7'
Michael Olise
Bayern München

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Probability Distribution
FSV Mainz 05 Win 31.5%
Draw 3.3%
Bayern München Win 65.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 051.15
Bayern München2.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WWDLW
52 GF / 55 GA
Bayern München Bayern München
WLDWL
149 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
3.47
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
22
BTTS Yes
30
19
Over 2.5
41
3.88
Shots on Goal
8.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 42 matches
Bayern München Bayern München 43 matches
FSV Mainz 05 Statistic Bayern München
15 Wins 37
12 Draws 4
15 Losses 2
52 Goals For 149
55 Goals Against 44
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 3.47
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
22 BTTS Yes 30
32 Over 1.5 43
19 Over 2.5 41
11 Over 3.5 31
9 Clean Sheets 13
13 Failed To Score 0
3.88 Shots On Goal 8.42
12.05 Total Shots 19.3
5.19 Corners 6.14
45.3% Ball Possession 64.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Bayern München's more proactive style and FSV Mainz 05's more cautious structure. Bayern München seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FSV Mainz 05 expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Bayern München in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bayern München having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Bayern München. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Bayern München look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Bayern München carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 79 points while FSV Mainz 05 sit 10 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

FSV Mainz 05 Analysis

From their first 30 matches, FSV Mainz 05 have collected 34 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses, while the 35:44 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on N. Amiri (11 goals), Jae-sung Lee (4 goals), Paul Nebel (4 goals), with creative support from Danny da Costa (3 assists), B. Hollerbach (3 assists), N. Amiri (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Dal, B. Hollerbach, Silas, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Bayern München Analysis

Bayern München approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 79 points after 30 outings. The return of 25 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 105:27, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Kane (32 goals), L. Diaz (15 goals), M. Olise (12 goals), with creative support from M. Olise (18 assists), L. Diaz (13 assists), S. Gnabry (6 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 12 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with C. Kiala, W. Mike, S. Ulreich unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 4 times, Bayern München won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:48 from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. 15 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 4.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2 / Bayern München 4-2-3-1
Missing players: FSV Mainz 05 5, Bayern München 7
H2H summary: FSV Mainz 05 wins 4, draws 1, Bayern München wins 10
Stats
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München Bayern München
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
4 Corner Kicks 4
14 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0
30% Ball Possession 70%
21 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Goal 6
8 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 1
15 Shots insidebox 10
6 Shots outsidebox 1
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
253 Total passes 618
193 Passes accurate 555
2.69 expected_goals 2.21
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FSV Mainz 05
Formation
Bayern München
D. Batz
D. Batz
D. da Costa
D. da Costa
S. Posch
S. Posch
D. Kohr
D. Kohr
S. Widmer
S. Widmer
P. Nebel
P. Nebel
K. Sano
🎯
K. Sano
N. Amiri
N. Amiri
P. Mwene
P. Mwene
S. Becker
S. Becker
P. Tietz
P. Tietz
J. Urbig
J. Urbig
K. Laimer
🎯
K. Laimer
Kim Min-Jae
Kim Min-Jae
H. Ito
H. Ito
A. Davies
A. Davies
B. Ndiaye
B. Ndiaye
A. Pavlovic
A. Pavlovic
R. Guerreiro
R. Guerreiro
L. Goretzka
L. Goretzka
L. Diaz
L. Diaz
N. Jackson
N. Jackson
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Starting XI
33
D. Batz
G
21
D. da Costa
D
4
S. Posch
D
31
D. Kohr
⚽ 15' ↓ 85' 🟨 20'
D
30
S. Widmer
↓ 80'
M
8
P. Nebel
⚽ 29' ↓ 85'
M
6
K. Sano
🎯 15'
M
10
N. Amiri
↓ 79'
M
2
P. Mwene
M
23
S. Becker
⚽ 45' ↓ 71'
F
20
P. Tietz
F
Substitutes
27
R. Zentner
G
19
A. Caci
↑ 80'
D
15
L. Maloney
↑ 79'
M
11
A. Sieb
↑ 71'
F
14
W. Boving
↑ 85'
F
24
S. Kawasaki
M
22
N. Veratschnig
D
44
N. Weiper
↑ 85'
F
48
K. Potulski
D
Bayern München 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
40
J. Urbig
G
27
K. Laimer
🎯 53' 🎯 73' 🟨 33'
D
3
Kim Min-Jae
D
21
H. Ito
D
19
A. Davies
↓ 57'
D
39
B. Ndiaye
↓ 77'
M
45
A. Pavlovic
↓ 46'
M
22
R. Guerreiro
↓ 57'
M
8
L. Goretzka
M
14
L. Diaz
↓ 46'
M
11
N. Jackson
⚽ 53'
F
Substitutes
1
M. Neuer
G
4
J. Tah
↑ 77'
D
17
M. Olise
⚽ 73' ↑ 46' 🟨 90+7'
M
9
H. Kane
⚽ 83' ↑ 46'
F
44
J. Stanisic
↑ 57'
D
10
J. Musiala
⚽ 80' ↑ 57'
M
34
D. Ofli
D
33
B. Assomo
F
43
F. Pavic
D
Last matches: FSV Mainz 05
16.05.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
10.05.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
3
L
03.05.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
FC St. Pauli
2
1
W
19.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
1
D
16.04.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
0
4
L
12.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
0
1
L
09.04.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
2
0
W
04.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1899 Hoffenheim
2
1
W
22.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
2
0
W
15.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
2
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
0
0
D
07.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
2
2
D
28.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
20.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
1
1
D
13.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Dortmund
0
4
L
07.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
2
0
W
31.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
2
1
W
24.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg
3
1
W
17.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Köln
1
2
L
Last matches: Bayern München
16.05.26
Bun
Bayern München
1. FC Köln
5
1
W
09.05.26
Bun
Bayern München
VfL Wolfsburg
1
0
W
06.05.26
UEF
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
02.05.26
Bun
Bayern München
1. FC Heidenheim
3
3
D
28.04.26
UEF
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
4
5
L
19.04.26
Bun
Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart
4
2
W
15.04.26
UEF
Bayern München
Real Madrid
4
3
W
11.04.26
Bun
Bayern München
FC St. Pauli
5
0
W
07.04.26
UEF
Bayern München
Real Madrid
2
1
W
04.04.26
Bun
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
3
2
W
21.03.26
Bun
Bayern München
Union Berlin
4
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Bayern München
Atalanta
4
1
W
14.03.26
Bun
Bayern München
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
10.03.26
UEF
Bayern München
Atalanta
6
1
W
06.03.26
Bun
Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
1
W
28.02.26
Bun
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
3
2
W
21.02.26
Bun
Bayern München
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
2
W
14.02.26
Bun
Bayern München
Werder Bremen
3
0
W
08.02.26
Bun
Bayern München
1899 Hoffenheim
5
1
W
31.01.26
Bun
Bayern München
Hamburger SV
2
2
D
H2H: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
25.04.26
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
3
4
L
14.12.25
H2H
Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
2
2
D
26.04.25
H2H
Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
3
0
L
14.12.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
2
1
W
30.10.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
0
4
L
09.03.24
H2H
Bayern Munich
FSV Mainz 05
8
1
L
21.10.23
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
1
3
L
22.04.23
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
3
1
W
01.02.23
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
0
4
L
29.10.22
H2H
Bayern Munich
FSV Mainz 05
6
2
L
30.04.22
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
3
1
W
11.12.21
H2H
Bayern Munich
FSV Mainz 05
2
1
L
24.04.21
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
2
1
W
03.01.21
H2H
Bayern Munich
FSV Mainz 05
5
2
L
01.02.20
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
1
3
L
Last matches: FSV Mainz 05
10.05.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
3
L
12.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
0
1
L
09.04.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
2
0
W
22.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
2
0
W
07.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
2
2
D
20.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
1
1
D
07.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
2
0
W
24.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg
3
1
W
13.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Heidenheim
2
1
W
21.12.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
FC St. Pauli
0
0
D
18.12.25
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Samsunspor
2
0
W
05.12.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
1
L
21.11.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1899 Hoffenheim
1
1
D
06.11.25
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Fiorentina
2
1
W
01.11.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
1
1
D
23.10.25
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Zrinjski
1
0
W
18.10.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
3
4
L
27.09.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
13.09.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
0
1
L
H2H at home: FSV Mainz 05
25.04.26
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
3
4
L
14.12.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
2
1
W
30.10.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
0
4
L
21.10.23
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
1
3
L
22.04.23
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
3
1
W
01.02.23
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
0
4
L
30.04.22
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
3
1
W
24.04.21
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
2
1
W
01.02.20
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
1
3
L
Last matches: Bayern München
09.05.26
Bun
Bayern München
VfL Wolfsburg
1
0
W
28.04.26
UEF
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
4
5
L
11.04.26
Bun
Bayern München
FC St. Pauli
5
0
W
07.04.26
UEF
Bayern München
Real Madrid
2
1
W
04.04.26
Bun
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
3
2
W
14.03.26
Bun
Bayern München
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
10.03.26
UEF
Bayern München
Atalanta
6
1
W
28.02.26
Bun
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
3
2
W
14.02.26
Bun
Bayern München
Werder Bremen
3
0
W
31.01.26
Bun
Bayern München
Hamburger SV
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Bayern München
PSV Eindhoven
2
1
W
17.01.26
Bun
Bayern München
RB Leipzig
5
1
W
14.01.26
Bun
Bayern München
1. FC Köln
3
1
W
06.01.26
Fri
Bayern München
Red Bull Salzburg
5
0
W
21.12.25
Bun
Bayern München
1. FC Heidenheim
4
0
W
06.12.25
Bun
Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart
5
0
W
26.11.25
UEF
Bayern München
Arsenal
1
3
L
08.11.25
Bun
Bayern München
Union Berlin
2
2
D
04.11.25
UEF
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
2
1
W
25.10.25
Bun
Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
0
W
H2H away: Bayern München
25.04.26
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
3
4
W
14.12.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
2
1
L
30.10.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
0
4
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D

Missing Players

FSV Mainz 05 5 missing
-
M. Dal
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
B. Hollerbach
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
Silas
Missing Fixture Broken shinbone
OUT
-
Lee Jae-Sung
Missing Fixture Toe Injury
OUT
-
M. Leitsch
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
Bayern München 7 missing
-
C. Kiala
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
W. Mike
Missing Fixture Hip Injury
OUT
-
S. Ulreich
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
M. Cardozo
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
L. Karl
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
T. Bischof
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
S. Gnabry
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT