LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs
FS Jelgava
Match Timeline
FK Liepaja
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
E. Oloko
FK Liepaja
🟨
24'
J. Novikovs
FS Jelgava
27'
A. Ogunniyi · Assist: A. Haidara
FK Liepaja
🔄
46'
R. Melkis ↔ R. Becers
FS Jelgava
🔄
46'
E. Rodolphe ↔ A. Korobenko
FK Liepaja
🔄
46'
J. Novikovs ↔ A. Petersons
FS Jelgava
🟨
53'
V. Sorokins
FK Liepaja
🟨
57'
E. Oloko
FK Liepaja
🔄
66'
D. Patijcuks ↔ K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja
🔄
75'
A. Haidara ↔ A. Leite
FK Liepaja
🔄
75'
A. Ogunniyi ↔ D. Gueye
FK Liepaja
🔄
80'
F. Hasek ↔ G. Patika
FS Jelgava
🔄
80'
M. Pudil ↔ A. Janovskis
FS Jelgava
🔄
84'
V. Isajevs ↔ K. Iljins
FK Liepaja
🔄
84'
T. Rataj ↔ A. Dreimanis
FS Jelgava
🟨
85'
R. Becers
FS Jelgava
🟨
86'
D. Oss
FK Liepaja
🟨
88'
L. Strumia
FK Liepaja

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56%
Odds 3.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.70
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56%
3.00
BTTS Yes
71%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.70
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
FS Jelgava Win 56%
Draw 13.5%
FK Liepaja Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
FS Jelgava1.26
FK Liepaja1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WWDLW
29 GF / 47 GA
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WLDWL
48 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
12
BTTS Yes
19
11
Over 2.5
20
0
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 28 matches
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 33 matches
FS Jelgava Statistic FK Liepaja
7 Wins 14
7 Draws 5
14 Losses 14
29 Goals For 48
47 Goals Against 52
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
12 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 27
11 Over 2.5 20
8 Over 3.5 11
4 Clean Sheets 4
13 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 2
0 Total Shots 14
0 Corners 6
0% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. FK Liepaja arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FK Liepaja. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FS Jelgava expected to line up in 5-4-1 and FK Liepaja in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FK Liepaja having the stronger overall control.

FS Jelgava Analysis

So far, FS Jelgava have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 25 points from 22 matches. The record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 24:38 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja sit 4 with 28 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 28:34, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FS Jelgava won 3 times, FK Liepaja won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:24 from FS Jelgava's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: FS Jelgava 5-4-1 / FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FS Jelgava wins 3, draws 6, FK Liepaja wins 6
Last matches: FS Jelgava
20.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
Last matches: FK Liepaja
23.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
30.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
0
W
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
12.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
23.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
17.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
2
2
D
12.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
H2H: FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja
26.05.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
12.04.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
27.02.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
1
L
25.10.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
02.08.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
30.05.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
14.04.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
0
L
03.11.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
10.08.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
3
0
L
14.07.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
4
L
02.06.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
23.04.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
0
1
W
07.10.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
21.07.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
3
2
W
22.05.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
Last matches: FS Jelgava
20.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
08.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
H2H at home: FS Jelgava
26.05.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
02.08.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
30.05.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
03.11.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
14.07.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
4
L
02.06.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.07.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
3
2
W
22.05.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
Last matches: FK Liepaja
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
23.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
17.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
2
2
D
03.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
0
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
1
0
W
03.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
AIK Stockholm
3
1
W
H2H away: FK Liepaja
26.05.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
02.08.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
W
30.05.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
0
1
W
03.11.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
14.07.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
4
W
02.06.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.07.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
3
2
L
22.05.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.10
Draw 3.25
Home 3.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.25
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.60
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.70
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 12.00
Over 7.5 17.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.10
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.14
Draw 3.28
Home 3.04
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.74
Draw 2.09
Home 3.74
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.45
Draw 2.53
Home 3.26
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.08
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 1.75 1.22
Over 2.0 1.28
Over 2.25 1.50
Over 2.5 1.69
Over 2.75 1.86
Over 3.0 2.12
Over 3.25 2.38
Over 3.5 2.66
Over 3.75 3.20
Over 4.0 4.25
Over 4.25 4.64
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 4.75 6.34
Over 5.0 9.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 12.00
Over 7.5 17.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 0.75 8.65
Under 1.0 7.50
Under 1.25 5.44
Under 1.5 3.94
Under 1.75 3.50
Under 2.0 3.05
Under 2.25 2.39
Under 2.5 2.02
Under 2.75 1.82
Under 3.0 1.58
Under 3.25 1.46
Under 3.5 1.37
Under 3.75 1.26
Under 4.0 1.15
Under 4.25 1.12
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 4.75 1.05
Under 5.0 1.00
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.07
Draw 3.30
Home 3.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.55
Draw 2.35
Home 3.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 3.5 2.43
Over 4.5 4.10
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.5 2.12
Under 3.5 1.45
Under 4.5 1.16

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 2 2 55:16 39 59
W D W W W
2 23 18 4 1 68:20 48 58
W W W D W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 23 8 6 9 29:29 0 30
W W L D W
5 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 23 6 7 10 24:39 -15 25
L L W W W
8 23 4 8 11 15:35 -20 20
L W L D L
9 23 3 8 12 38:47 -9 17
L L L L L
10 23 3 4 16 21:59 -38 13
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga