ITALY SERIE B
08.05.2026 18:30
Stadio Benito Stirpe
Referee: G. Manganiello
Frosinone
Match Timeline
Mantova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
4'
Ilario Monterisi
Frosinone
🟨
4'
Alessio Castellini
Mantova
5'
G. Calo
Frosinone
12'
A. Castellini
Frosinone
🟨
23'
Farès Ghedjemis
Frosinone
🔄
46'
T. Maggioni ↔ F. Paoletti
Mantova
57'
F. Ghedjemis
Frosinone
🔄
63'
F. Ruocco ↔ N. Buso
Mantova
🔄
63'
R. Kouda ↔ D. Wieser
Mantova
🟨
64'
Simone Trimboli
Mantova
🔄
67'
F. Gelli ↔ I. Koutsoupias
Frosinone
🔄
67'
F. Ghedjemis ↔ S. Fini
Frosinone
71'
A. Raimondo · Assist: I. Koutsoupias
Frosinone
🟨
72'
Antonio Raimondo
Frosinone
🔄
75'
G. Cittadini ↔ G. Calvani
Frosinone
76'
I. Koutsoupias · Assist: G. Calo
Frosinone
🟨
77'
Ilias Koutsoupias
Frosinone
🔄
81'
L. Palmisani ↔ M. Pisseri
Frosinone
🔄
81'
I. Monterisi ↔ N. Corrado
Frosinone
🔄
82'
T. Marras ↔ C. Falletti
Mantova
🔄
90'
A. Castellini ↔ C. Marai
Mantova

Frosinone vs Mantova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
49.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Frosinone Win 72.7%
Draw 0%
Mantova Win 27.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Frosinone1.71
Mantova1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Frosinone Frosinone
WWDLW
73 GF / 38 GA
Mantova Mantova
WLDWL
45 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.18
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
22
BTTS Yes
19
23
Over 2.5
20
5.77
Shots on Goal
4.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Frosinone Frosinone 39 matches
Mantova Mantova 38 matches
Frosinone Statistic Mantova
23 Wins 13
12 Draws 7
4 Losses 18
73 Goals For 45
38 Goals Against 56
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
22 BTTS Yes 19
32 Over 1.5 27
23 Over 2.5 20
14 Over 3.5 10
15 Clean Sheets 9
3 Failed To Score 12
5.77 Shots On Goal 4.68
16.85 Total Shots 13.89
6.03 Corners 4.68
49.6% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Frosinone's more proactive style and Mantova's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Frosinone expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Mantova in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mantova having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Frosinone arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 78 points compared to Mantova in 10 on 46, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mantova.

Frosinone Analysis

Frosinone approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 78 points after 37 outings. The return of 22 wins, 12 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 71:34, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through F. Ghedjemis (14 goals), A. Raimondo (10 goals), G. Calo (9 goals), with creative support from G. Calo (14 assists), Giorgi Kvernadze (5 assists), Ilario Monterisi (5 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Mantova Analysis

Mantova are currently 10 in the standings with 46 points from 37 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 7 draws, and 17 losses, while the 45:52 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Mancuso (8 goals), F. Ruocco (7 goals), T. Marras (7 goals), with creative support from Simone Trimboli (7 assists), Nicolò Radaelli (4 assists), Federico Artioli (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Frosinone won 3 times, Mantova won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:5 from Frosinone's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Frosinone 4-3-3 / Mantova 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Frosinone wins 3, draws 0, Mantova wins 1

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation