BRAZIL SERIE B
27.09.2026 21:30

Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza EC Win 52%
Draw 14.7%
Athletic Club Win 33.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC1.09
Athletic Club1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WWDLW
31 GF / 23 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
34 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.17
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
11
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
10
4.14
Shots on Goal
3.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 28 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 29 matches
Fortaleza EC Statistic Athletic Club
13 Wins 10
9 Draws 11
6 Losses 8
31 Goals For 34
23 Goals Against 31
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
11 BTTS Yes 16
16 Over 1.5 22
9 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
13 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 8
4.14 Shots On Goal 3.31
14 Total Shots 11.28
5.39 Corners 4.17
47% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza EC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Athletic Club in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Athletic Club. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 48 points after 28 outings. They have recorded 13 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses, with a 31:23 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Vitinho (6 goals), Maílton (4 goals), J. Miritello (3 goals), with creative support from Mauricio Junior (2 assists), Maílton (1 assists), João Ricardo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club are currently 11 in the standings with 41 points from 29 matches. The record of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 34:31 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), W. Aponza (4 goals), with creative support from Max (4 assists), Ian Luccas (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza EC won 0 times, Athletic Club won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from Fortaleza EC's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.3%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza EC 4-3-3 / Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza EC wins 0, draws 0, Athletic Club wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
3 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
11 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
12 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
13 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
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