ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
A. Le Coq Arena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 74.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
74.6%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
91.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flora Tallinn Win 52.2%
Draw 22.4%
Paide Win 25.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flora Tallinn1.57
Paide1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WWDLW
60 GF / 44 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
60 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
14
BTTS Yes
26
24
Over 2.5
20
1.14
Shots on Goal
0.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 35 matches
Paide Paide 37 matches
Flora Tallinn Statistic Paide
19 Wins 17
2 Draws 10
14 Losses 10
60 Goals For 60
44 Goals Against 50
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
14 BTTS Yes 26
27 Over 1.5 28
24 Over 2.5 20
13 Over 3.5 15
13 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 3
1.14 Shots On Goal 0.6
0 Total Shots 2
1.86 Corners 1
14% Ball Possession 12.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Paide.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Flora Tallinn come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 39 points after 21 matches. They have recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a 42:24 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Paide Analysis

Paide arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 36 points after 22 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 34:29 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flora Tallinn won 5 times, Paide won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:23 from Flora Tallinn's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.6%)
Predicted formations: Flora Tallinn 4-3-3 / Paide 4-3-3
H2H summary: Flora Tallinn wins 5, draws 1, Paide wins 9
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
23.08.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
16.08.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
3
L
13.08.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Inter Club d'Escaldes
0
4
L
06.08.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Inter Club d'Escaldes
0
2
L
02.08.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
1
0
W
30.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
0
1
L
23.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
1
0
W
17.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
2
L
14.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
2
D
08.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
3
L
02.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
3
0
W
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
Last matches: Paide
23.08.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
4
1
W
16.08.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
12.08.26
UEF
Paide
Rapid Vienna
0
2
L
06.08.26
UEF
Paide
Rapid Vienna
1
4
L
02.08.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
30.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
1
D
23.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
0
W
19.07.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
5
L
16.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
3
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
04.07.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
H2H: Flora Tallinn vs Paide
21.06.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
23.05.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
5
W
26.04.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
W
20.02.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
26.10.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
21.06.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L
15.06.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
18.04.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
0
W
22.02.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
0
L
30.10.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
0
2
L
20.10.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L
01.06.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
0
W
17.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
3
L
16.03.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L
10.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
3
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
16.08.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
3
L
13.08.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Inter Club d'Escaldes
0
4
L
02.08.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
1
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
1
0
W
17.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
2
L
08.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
3
L
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
BFC Daugavpils
4
0
W
17.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
1
2
L
H2H at home: Flora Tallinn
21.06.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
15.06.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
18.04.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
0
W
30.10.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
0
2
L
01.06.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
0
W
17.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
3
L
10.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
3
L
Last matches: Paide
16.08.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
12.08.26
UEF
Paide
Rapid Vienna
0
2
L
30.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
1
D
19.07.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
5
L
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
19.01.26
Fri
Paide
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
6
L
10.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
3
2
W
H2H away: Paide
21.06.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
W
15.06.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
W
18.04.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
0
L
30.10.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
0
2
W
01.06.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
0
L
17.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
3
W
10.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
3
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 17 5 1 61:18 43 56
W W W D W
2 24 13 5 6 43:19 24 44
L W W W D
3 22 14 0 8 44:25 19 42
W L W L W
4
Paide Away
23 11 6 6 38:30 8 39
W D W L W
5 21 10 2 9 24:31 -7 32
W W L L W
6 24 9 1 14 34:40 -6 28
W L L L W
7 23 8 3 12 31:44 -13 27
L L D L W
8 24 8 1 15 41:58 -17 25
L L L L W
9 24 7 3 14 25:39 -14 24
L W W L D
10 24 5 2 17 18:55 -37 17
L D L W W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga