BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: A. Daronco
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
57'
Leo Pereira · Assist: Jorginho
Flamengo
🔄
58'
Lorran ↔ G. de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
🟨
63'
Alex Sandro
Flamengo
🔄
66'
Danielzinho ↔ Victor Sa
Sao Paulo
🔄
66'
Artur ↔ Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🟨
69'
Wendell
Sao Paulo
70'
Jonathan Calleri · Assist: Luis Osorio
Sao Paulo
🔄
79'
Bruno Henrique ↔ Everton
Flamengo
🔄
87'
E. Pulgar ↔ Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
87'
Pedro ↔ Wallace Yan
Flamengo
🟨
88'
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
VAR
90+3'
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
🟨
90+11'
Lucas Ramon
Sao Paulo
🔄
90'
Luciano ↔ Andre Silva
Sao Paulo
🔄
90+5'
Wendell ↔ Sabino
Sao Paulo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 88%
Draw 6%
Sao Paulo Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.71
Sao Paulo1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
56 GF / 23 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
24 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
2.07
Average Goals Scored
1.26
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
13
BTTS Yes
11
17
Over 2.5
8
5.83
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 27 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 19 matches
Flamengo Statistic Sao Paulo
18 Wins 7
6 Draws 4
3 Losses 8
56 Goals For 24
23 Goals Against 22
2.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
13 BTTS Yes 11
25 Over 1.5 14
17 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 3
12 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
5.83 Shots On Goal 4.05
15.39 Total Shots 12.16
4.57 Corners 6.58
56% Ball Possession 54%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Sao Paulo having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Sao Paulo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Sao Paulo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 34 points compared to Sao Paulo in 8 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 34 points after 17 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 31:16 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Pedro (10 goals), Samuel Lino (4 goals), Giorgian De Arrascaeta (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (6 assists), Pedro (4 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Sao Paulo Analysis

With 25 points from 18 games and a place of 8, Sao Paulo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 23:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jonathan Calleri (5 goals), Luciano (5 goals), Ferreirinha (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), Luciano (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 6 times, Sao Paulo won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:13 from Flamengo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Flamengo 4, Sao Paulo 5
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 6, draws 5, Sao Paulo wins 4
Stats
Flamengo Flamengo
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 2
15 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 2
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Goal 1
12 Shots off Goal 2
1 Blocked Shots 1
16 Shots insidebox 3
2 Shots outsidebox 1
0 Goalkeeper Saves 5
510 Total passes 439
432 Passes accurate 353
2.01 expected_goals 0.50
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Flamengo
Formation
Sao Paulo
A. Rossi
A. Rossi
Emerson Royal
Emerson Royal
Vitao
Vitao
Leo Pereira
Leo Pereira
Alex Sandro
Alex Sandro
E. Pulgar
E. Pulgar
Jorginho
🎯
Jorginho
Lorran
Lorran
Samuel Lino
Samuel Lino
Bruno Henrique
Bruno Henrique
Pedro
Pedro
Rafael
Rafael
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon
Robert Arboleda
Robert Arboleda
Luis Osorio
🎯
Luis Osorio
Wendell
Wendell
Artur
Artur
Pablo Maia
Pablo Maia
Danielzinho
Danielzinho
Marcos Antonio
Marcos Antonio
Luciano
Luciano
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Rossi
G
22
Emerson Royal
D
44
Vitao
D
4
Leo Pereira
⚽ 57'
D
26
Alex Sandro
🟨 63'
D
5
E. Pulgar
↓ 87'
M
21
Jorginho
🎯 57'
M
99
Lorran
↓ 58'
M
16
Samuel Lino
M
27
Bruno Henrique
↓ 79'
M
9
Pedro
↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
42
A. da Silva Ventura
G
8
S. Niguez
M
13
Danilo
D
2
G. Varela
D
10
G. de Arrascaeta
↑ 58'
M
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
52
Evertton Araujo
↑ 87'
M
64
Wallace Yan
↑ 87'
F
61
Joao Souza
D
79
Joshua
M
77
J. Goes
D
11
Everton
↑ 79'
F
Sao Paulo 4-4-1-1
Starting XI
23
Rafael
G
19
Lucas Ramon
5
Robert Arboleda
D
54
Luis Osorio
🎯 70'
D
18
Wendell
↓ 90+5' 🟨 69'
D
37
Artur
↓ 66'
M
29
Pablo Maia
M
94
Danielzinho
↓ 66'
M
8
Marcos Antonio
M
10
Luciano
↓ 90'
F
9
Jonathan Calleri
⚽ 70' 🟨 88'
F
Substitutes
31
Carlos Coronel
G
20
Buta
D
80
Cauly
M
27
Victor Sa
↑ 66'
F
11
Ferreira
↑ 66'
F
17
Andre Silva
↑ 90'
F
35
Sabino
↑ 90+5'
D
53
Isac
D
34
P. dos Santos
F
43
G. Santana
M
56
N. Bosshardt
D
48
Djhordney
M
Last matches: Flamengo
20.08.26
CON
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
16.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Mirassol
5
1
W
13.08.26
CON
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
0
W
29.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Olimpia
4
2
W
11.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Benfica
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Lausanne
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Gremio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
30.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
W
Last matches: Sao Paulo
16.08.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
08.08.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
1
2
L
23.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
H2H: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo
26.07.26
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
29.01.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
L
06.11.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
2
D
12.07.25
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
19.01.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
0
0
D
04.08.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
1
0
L
18.04.24
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
07.12.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
1
0
L
24.09.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
1
1
D
17.09.23
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
13.08.23
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
15.09.22
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
25.08.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
1
3
W
06.08.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
0
2
W
17.04.22
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
3
1
W
Last matches: Flamengo
20.08.26
CON
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
09.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Olimpia
4
2
W
08.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Lausanne
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
W
17.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Independiente Medellin
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Santos
3
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Remo
3
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
H2H at home: Flamengo
26.07.26
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
12.07.25
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
18.04.24
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
17.09.23
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
13.08.23
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
15.09.22
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
17.04.22
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
3
1
W
Last matches: Sao Paulo
08.08.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
H2H away: Sao Paulo
26.07.26
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
12.07.25
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
2
0
L
18.04.24
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
2
1
L
17.09.23
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
0
1
W
13.08.23
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
15.09.22
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
0
L
17.04.22
H2H
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
3
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Flamengo 4 missing
-
Lucas Paqueta
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. Carrascal
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
Luiz Araujo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
G. Plata
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Sao Paulo 5 missing
-
E. Diaz
Missing Fixture Personal Reasons
OUT
-
Sabino
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
R. Toloi
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Bobadilla
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Lucas Moura
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT