LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Daugavas stadions
Referee: A. Griscenko
FK Liepaja
Match Timeline
Super Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
V. Lizunovs · Assist: N. Pathe
Super Nova
37'
D. Gueye
FK Liepaja
🟨
42'
K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja
45'
D. Patijcuks · Assist: K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja
🔄
46'
R. Sitjakovs ↔ E. Emsis
Super Nova
🔄
58'
D. Patijcuks ↔ I. Patrikejevs
FK Liepaja
🔄
58'
A. Ogunniyi ↔ Fellipe Vieira
FK Liepaja
🟨
60'
I. Korotkovs
FK Liepaja
🔄
66'
N. Pathe ↔ A. Grikovs
Super Nova
🔄
66'
R. Iida ↔ I. Ndiaye
Super Nova
🔄
69'
D. Gueye ↔ C. Amatkarijo
FK Liepaja
🟨
72'
J. Cirulis
Super Nova
🔄
76'
K. Skadmanis ↔ A. Baghdasaryan
Super Nova
🟨
80'
E. Emsis
Super Nova
🔄
83'
J. Cirulis ↔ N. Barkovskis
Super Nova
🟨
87'
Facu
Super Nova
🟨
88'
M. Oss
Super Nova
🔄
89'
K. Leidsman ↔ I. Pulis
FK Liepaja
🔄
89'
A. Haidara ↔ A. Traore
FK Liepaja
🟨
90+1'
M. Martins
FK Liepaja
🟨
90+3'
D. Oss
FK Liepaja

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.3%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 62.3%
Draw 10.4%
Super Nova Win 27.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.57
Super Nova1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
38 GF / 38 GA
Super Nova Super Nova
WLDWL
24 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
16
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 24 matches
Super Nova Super Nova 20 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic Super Nova
10 Wins 7
5 Draws 3
9 Losses 10
38 Goals For 24
38 Goals Against 31
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
16 BTTS Yes 13
20 Over 1.5 16
15 Over 2.5 11
8 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Super Nova. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Super Nova having the stronger overall control.

FK Liepaja Analysis

Placed 4 with 22 points from 16 outings, FK Liepaja continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 21:23 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by K. Leidsman (5 goals), D. Gueye (4 goals), Fellipe Vieira (4 goals), with creative support from Fellipe Vieira (2 assists), A. Korobenko (2 assists), C. Amatkarijo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Super Nova Analysis

Placed 5 with 20 points from 16 outings, Super Nova continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 18:23 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by A. Glaudans (4 goals), V. Lizunovs (4 goals), M. Oss (3 goals), with creative support from Facu (5 assists), A. Glaudans (1 assists), V. Lizunovs (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 11 times, Super Nova won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 38:19 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1 / Super Nova -
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 11, draws 2, Super Nova wins 2

Lineups

FK Liepaja
Formation
Super Nova
D. Oss
D. Oss
M. Martins
M. Martins
B. Straalman
B. Straalman
I. Korotkovs
I. Korotkovs
A. Silva
A. Silva
A. Korobenko
A. Korobenko
D. Gueye
D. Gueye
A. Ogunniyi
A. Ogunniyi
D. Patijcuks
D. Patijcuks
A. Haidara
A. Haidara
K. Leidsman
🎯
K. Leidsman
D. Veisbuks
D. Veisbuks
M. Tihonovics
M. Tihonovics
M. Oss
M. Oss
J. Cirulis
J. Cirulis
R. Iida
R. Iida
Facu
Facu
R. Sitjakovs
R. Sitjakovs
K. Skadmanis
K. Skadmanis
V. Lizunovs
V. Lizunovs
Bamba
Bamba
N. Pathe
🎯
N. Pathe
FK Liepaja 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
24
D. Oss
🟨 90+3'
4
M. Martins
🟨 90+1'
2
B. Straalman
33
I. Korotkovs
🟨 60'
5
A. Silva
28
A. Korobenko
14
D. Gueye
⚽ 37' ↓ 69'
7
A. Ogunniyi
↓ 58'
70
D. Patijcuks
⚽ 45' ↓ 58'
23
A. Haidara
↓ 89'
44
K. Leidsman
🎯 45' ↓ 89' 🟨 42'
Substitutes
12
D. Petkovic
35
V. Sorokins
31
C. Amatkarijo
↑ 69'
3
K. Iljins
9
I. Pulis
↑ 89'
8
A. Traore
↑ 89'
11
I. Patrikejevs
↑ 58'
55
Fellipe Vieira
↑ 58'
22
I. Mushindi
Super Nova 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
90
D. Veisbuks
21
M. Tihonovics
25
M. Oss
🟨 88'
5
J. Cirulis
↓ 83' 🟨 72'
3
R. Iida
↓ 66'
14
Facu
🟨 87'
24
R. Sitjakovs
↓ 46'
22
K. Skadmanis
↓ 76'
10
V. Lizunovs
⚽ 28'
9
Bamba
27
N. Pathe
🎯 28' ↓ 66'
Substitutes
13
S. Vilkovs
18
M. Vasilevskis
23
N. Barkovskis
↑ 83'
6
E. Emsis
↑ 46' 🟨 80'
8
K. Maksimovs
16
K. Romanovs
29
A. Baghdasaryan
↑ 76'
19
A. Grikovs
↑ 66'
20
I. Ndiaye
↑ 66'
Last matches: FK Liepaja
09.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
02.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
1
2
L
30.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
26.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
30.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
0
W
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
Last matches: Super Nova
09.08.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
H2H: FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
09.08.26
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
W
12.06.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
23.04.26
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
W
09.11.25
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
3
0
L
25.08.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
0
3
L
17.06.25
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
3
W
25.04.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
2
D
11.11.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
0
W
28.08.23
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
0
2
W
09.06.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
28.04.23
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
2
6
W
29.01.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
8
1
W
11.09.22
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
27.06.22
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
0
W
02.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
3
W
Last matches: FK Liepaja
23.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
09.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
1
0
W
30.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
0
W
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
12.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
2
L
13.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
07.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
2
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
13.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Orebro SK
0
3
L
11.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Alcoyano
0
1
L
07.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Kryvbas KR
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
TransINVEST Vilnius
5
2
W
28.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Kalju Nomme
3
5
L
19.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Paide
3
1
W
H2H at home: FK Liepaja
12.06.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
25.08.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
0
3
L
25.04.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
2
D
11.11.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
0
W
09.06.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
29.01.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
8
1
W
27.06.22
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
0
W
Last matches: Super Nova
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
08.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Trans Narva
3
1
W
14.01.26
Fri
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
2
5
L
H2H away: Super Nova
12.06.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
L
25.08.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
0
3
W
25.04.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
2
D
11.11.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
0
L
09.06.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
L
29.01.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
8
1
L
27.06.22
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
0
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 21 2 2 62:17 45 65
W W W D W
2 25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 26 4 9 13 18:47 -29 21
L L D L W
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L