LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Daugavas stadions

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.2%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.65
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.2%
1.53
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.65
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 86.2%
Draw 6.9%
Grobiņa Win 6.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.59
Grobiņa1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
54 GF / 58 GA
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WLDWL
32 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
22
BTTS Yes
17
23
Over 2.5
12
1.2
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 37 matches
Grobiņa Grobiņa 33 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic Grobiņa
16 Wins 6
5 Draws 12
16 Losses 15
54 Goals For 32
58 Goals Against 59
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
22 BTTS Yes 17
31 Over 1.5 25
23 Over 2.5 12
12 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 5
10 Failed To Score 13
1.2 Shots On Goal 0
4.8 Total Shots 0
1.8 Corners 0
16.4% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Grobiņa having the stronger overall control. FK Liepaja arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 34 points compared to Grobiņa in 8 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Grobiņa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Grobiņa.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 34 points after 25 outings. They have recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with a 33:37 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grobiņa Analysis

With 21 points from 26 games and a place of 8, Grobiņa still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 18:47 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 5 times, Grobiņa won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:12 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.1%)
Predicted formations: FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1 / Grobiņa -
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 5, draws 1, Grobiņa wins 5
Last matches: FK Liepaja
09.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
02.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
1
2
L
30.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
26.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
30.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
0
W
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
12.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
Last matches: Grobiņa
10.08.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
1
6
L
02.08.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
4
L
27.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
2
2
D
20.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
05.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
1
W
29.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
2
L
25.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
16.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
15.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
02.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
3
L
H2H: FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa
16.06.26
H2H
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
0
L
28.04.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.09.25
H2H
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
0
1
W
30.06.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
2
0
W
10.05.25
H2H
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
2
0
L
16.03.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
4
1
W
26.10.24
H2H
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
3
W
03.08.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
29.05.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
3
0
W
18.04.24
H2H
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
3
2
L
10.07.22
H2H
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
2
1
L
Last matches: FK Liepaja
23.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
09.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
1
0
W
30.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
0
W
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
12.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
12.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
2
L
13.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
07.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
2
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
13.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Orebro SK
0
3
L
11.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Alcoyano
0
1
L
07.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Kryvbas KR
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
TransINVEST Vilnius
5
2
W
28.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Kalju Nomme
3
5
L
19.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Paide
3
1
W
H2H at home: FK Liepaja
28.04.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
30.06.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.03.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
4
1
W
03.08.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
29.05.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
3
0
W
Last matches: Grobiņa
10.08.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
1
6
L
02.08.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
4
L
20.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
29.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
2
L
20.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
3
1
W
15.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Hegelmann Litauen
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
21.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
2
3
L
H2H away: Grobiņa
28.04.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
30.06.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
2
0
L
16.03.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
4
1
L
03.08.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
W
29.05.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
3
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.47
Draw 4.16
Home 1.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.51
Draw 2.48
Home 1.97
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.30
Over 2.0 1.28
Over 2.25 1.46
Over 2.5 1.65
Over 2.75 1.82
Over 3.0 2.07
Over 3.25 2.33
Over 3.5 2.60
Under 1.75 3.34
Under 2.0 3.46
Under 2.25 2.61
Under 2.5 2.21
Under 2.75 1.99
Under 3.0 1.74
Under 3.25 1.56
Under 3.5 1.46
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 4.00
Home 1.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.40
Home 2.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.62
Home 1.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.65
Over 3.5 2.50
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 11.00
Over 7.5 17.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.20
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.70
Draw 4.20
Home 1.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.65
Draw 2.35
Home 1.97
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.29
Draw 2.78
Home 1.78
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.07
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 1.75 1.19
Over 2.0 1.25
Over 2.25 1.45
Over 2.5 1.61
Over 2.75 1.77
Over 3.0 1.98
Over 3.25 2.24
Over 3.5 2.49
Over 3.75 2.92
Over 4.0 3.82
Over 4.25 4.16
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 4.75 5.59
Over 5.0 7.80
Over 5.25 7.65
Over 5.5 8.50
Over 6.5 12.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 12.20
Under 1.0 9.00
Under 1.25 5.81
Under 1.5 4.20
Under 1.75 3.76
Under 2.0 3.28
Under 2.25 2.54
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 2.75 1.92
Under 3.0 1.67
Under 3.25 1.52
Under 3.5 1.42
Under 3.75 1.31
Under 4.0 1.19
Under 4.25 1.16
Under 4.5 1.13
Under 4.75 1.08
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.25 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.80
Draw 3.80
Home 1.56
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.38
Home 2.05
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.5 1.62
Over 3.5 2.55
Over 4.5 4.35
Under 2.5 2.07
Under 3.5 1.41
Under 4.5 1.15

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 21 2 2 62:17 45 65
W W W D W
2 25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 26 4 9 13 18:47 -29 21
L L D L W
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L