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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
18.10.2026 13:00
Daugavas stadions
FK Liepaja
Match Timeline
FS Jelgava
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
A. Korobenko · Assist: D. Patijcuks
FK Liepaja
⚽
59'
A. Ogunniyi · Assist: K. Iljins
FK Liepaja
🔄
63'
E. Smaukstelis ↔ M. Pudil
FS Jelgava
⚽
66'
E. Oloko
FK Liepaja
🟨
67'
L. Strumia
FK Liepaja
🔄
70'
A. Korobenko ↔ V. Isajevs
FK Liepaja
🔄
70'
D. Patijcuks ↔ B. Melnis
FK Liepaja
🔄
76'
A. Dreimanis ↔ T. Rataj
FS Jelgava
🟨
78'
R. Becers
FS Jelgava
🔄
79'
E. Rodolphe ↔ I. Mushindi
FK Liepaja
🔄
79'
K. Leidsman ↔ Crysthyan
FK Liepaja
🔄
82'
G. Patika ↔ A. Deklavs
FS Jelgava
🔄
82'
R. Becers ↔ G. Kacanovs
FS Jelgava
🔄
84'
A. Ogunniyi ↔ L. Lakutis
FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.71
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.9%
1.71 ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.57 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 56.9%
Draw 8%
FS Jelgava Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.53
FS Jelgava1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
64 GF / 67 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
39 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
26
BTTS Yes
16
27
Over 2.5
15
1.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 44 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 37 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic FS Jelgava
18 Wins 9
8 Draws 8
18 Losses 20
64 Goals For 39
67 Goals Against 61
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
26 BTTS Yes 16
35 Over 1.5 25
27 Over 2.5 15
16 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 5
13 Failed To Score 18
1.5 Shots On Goal 0
5.33 Total Shots 0
2 Corners 0
19.8% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FS Jelgava. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 43 points from 31 matches. The record of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 41:43 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava are currently 7 in the standings with 32 points from 31 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 32:49 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 7 times, FS Jelgava won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:16 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1 / FS Jelgava -
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 7, draws 6, FS Jelgava wins 2

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 25 5 2 79:24 55 80
W W D W D
2 33 24 7 2 90:31 59 79
W W W W D
3 32 19 7 6 52:32 20 64
W D W D W
4 33 13 7 13 46:46 0 46
W L D D D
5 32 11 9 12 37:36 1 42
W D L D L
6 33 11 5 17 32:47 -15 38
L L W L L
7 33 8 8 17 34:56 -22 32
L L L D L
8 33 6 11 16 25:56 -31 29
W L D D L
9 32 5 9 18 44:63 -19 24
L D L W L
10 33 4 6 23 33:81 -48 18
L L W L D