FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Project Liv Arena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.6%
Odds 3.42
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.58
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.6%
3.42
BTTS Yes
71%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.58
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.31
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
FF Jaro Win 52.6%
Draw 13.1%
Ilves Win 34.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FF Jaro1.24
Ilves2.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
FF Jaro FF Jaro
WWDLW
19 GF / 39 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
37 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
2.06
2.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
11
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
11
1.71
Shots on Goal
2.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FF Jaro FF Jaro 19 matches
Ilves Ilves 18 matches
FF Jaro Statistic Ilves
2 Wins 7
6 Draws 4
11 Losses 7
19 Goals For 37
39 Goals Against 29
1 Avg Goals Scored 2.06
2.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
11 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 10
3 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 2
1.71 Shots On Goal 2.79
4.93 Total Shots 6
2.07 Corners 2.07
23.1% Ball Possession 23.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ilves. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. FF Jaro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

FF Jaro Analysis

With 8 points from 13 games and a place of 11, FF Jaro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats with a 11:28 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ilves Analysis

Ilves sit 8 with 15 points after 13 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, while the 22:25 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, FF Jaro won 2 times, Ilves won 6 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:18 from FF Jaro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
Predicted formations: FF Jaro 3-4-2-1 / Ilves 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: FF Jaro wins 2, draws 0, Ilves wins 6
Last matches: FF Jaro
27.06.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Turku PS
2
3
L
23.06.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Gnistan
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Ilves
0
5
L
13.06.26
Vei
FF Jaro
HJK Helsinki
2
5
L
31.05.26
Vei
FF Jaro
AC Oulu
1
2
L
23.05.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
3
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
FF Jaro
KuPS
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Gnistan
0
5
L
09.05.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Inter Turku
0
2
L
02.05.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Turku PS
2
2
D
24.04.26
Vei
FF Jaro
SJK
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
FF Jaro
KuPS
1
1
D
10.04.26
Vei
FF Jaro
VPS
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Lahti
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
FF Jaro
AC Oulu
2
3
L
18.03.26
Fri
FF Jaro
SJK
1
2
L
12.03.26
Fri
FF Jaro
Haka
1
1
D
28.02.26
Fri
FF Jaro
Inter Turku
1
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
FF Jaro
JBK
1
0
W
Last matches: Ilves
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Ilves II
10
1
W
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
24.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
4
3
W
H2H: FF Jaro vs Ilves
17.06.26
H2H
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
L
31.01.26
H2H
Ilves
FF Jaro
4
2
L
20.07.25
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
0
1
L
12.04.25
H2H
Ilves
FF Jaro
2
1
L
22.02.25
H2H
Ilves
FF Jaro
4
0
L
16.08.15
H2H
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
0
L
16.06.15
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
3
0
W
29.04.15
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
3
1
W
Last matches: FF Jaro
23.06.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Gnistan
1
1
D
13.06.26
Vei
FF Jaro
HJK Helsinki
2
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
3
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Turku PS
2
2
D
18.04.26
Vei
FF Jaro
KuPS
1
1
D
04.04.26
Vei
FF Jaro
Lahti
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
FF Jaro
AC Oulu
2
3
L
12.03.26
Fri
FF Jaro
Haka
1
1
D
H2H at home: FF Jaro
20.07.25
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
0
1
L
16.06.15
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
3
0
W
29.04.15
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
3
1
W
Last matches: Ilves
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H away: Ilves
20.07.25
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
0
1
W
16.06.15
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
3
0
L
29.04.15
H2H
FF Jaro
Ilves
3
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.04
Draw 3.97
Home 3.42
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.55
Draw 2.54
Home 3.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.18
Over 2.25 1.49
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 2.75 1.72
Over 3.0 1.93
Over 3.25 2.20
Over 3.5 2.46
Over 4.5 4.36
Under 1.5 5.11
Under 2.25 2.65
Under 2.5 2.47
Under 2.75 2.21
Under 3.0 1.95
Under 3.25 1.73
Under 3.5 1.59
Under 4.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.85
Draw 3.60
Home 3.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.40
Home 3.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 2.62
Home 3.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.38
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Under 0.5 17.00
Under 1.5 5.00
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.01
Draw 3.72
Home 3.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.52
Draw 2.29
Home 3.84
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.29
Draw 2.71
Home 3.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.25 1.05
Over 1.5 1.13
Over 1.75 1.17
Over 2.0 1.22
Over 2.25 1.42
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 2.75 1.72
Over 3.0 1.88
Over 3.25 2.11
Over 3.5 2.38
Over 3.75 2.74
Over 4.0 3.50
Over 4.25 3.86
Over 4.5 4.20
Over 4.75 5.29
Over 5.0 7.40
Over 5.5 8.10
Over 6.5 19.00
Over 7.5 34.00
Under 0.5 13.20
Under 1.0 9.80
Under 1.25 6.57
Under 1.5 4.65
Under 1.75 4.22
Under 2.0 3.68
Under 2.25 2.79
Under 2.5 2.33
Under 2.75 2.07
Under 3.0 1.79
Under 3.25 1.59
Under 3.5 1.47
Under 3.75 1.35
Under 4.0 1.22
Under 4.25 1.18
Under 4.5 1.15
Under 4.75 1.09
Under 5.0 1.03
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.97
Draw 3.55
Home 3.35
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.33
Home 3.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.28
Draw 2.75
Home 3.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.0 1.25
Over 2.25 1.42
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 2.75 1.73
Over 3.0 1.96
Over 3.25 2.23
Over 3.5 2.48
Over 3.75 2.90
Over 4.0 3.70
Over 4.25 4.00
Over 4.5 4.30
Over 4.75 5.25
Over 5.0 7.00
Under 1.5 4.25
Under 2.0 3.50
Under 2.25 2.60
Under 2.5 2.18
Under 2.75 1.96
Under 3.0 1.73
Under 3.25 1.57
Under 3.5 1.47
Under 3.75 1.35
Under 4.0 1.23
Under 4.25 1.19
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 4.75 1.11
Under 5.0 1.06

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3 14 8 2 4 20:15 5 26
D L W D W
4 14 6 4 4 25:17 8 22
L W D W W
5 13 5 6 2 17:11 6 21
D W W D L
6 13 5 4 4 19:17 2 19
D D W W W
7 13 5 4 4 15:13 2 19
W D L L W
8
Ilves Away
14 4 4 6 24:27 -3 16
D L W W L
9 13 3 4 6 15:15 0 13
D D L L W
10 13 2 5 6 15:21 -6 11
D D L W L
11 14 1 5 8 13:31 -18 8
L D L L L
12 13 0 4 9 6:25 -19 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)