BRAZIL SERIE C
13.09.2026 19:00
Arena Fonte Luminosa

Ferroviária vs Paysandu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.1%
Odds 1.96
BTTS
Yes
Probability 64.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 79.6%
Odds 1.95
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.1%
1.96
BTTS Yes
64.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
79.6%
1.95
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.13
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Ferroviária Win 60.1%
Draw 9.3%
Paysandu Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviária1.33
Paysandu1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WWDLW
25 GF / 18 GA
Paysandu Paysandu
WLDWL
27 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.35
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
7
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviária Ferroviária 20 matches
Paysandu Paysandu 20 matches
Ferroviária Statistic Paysandu
8 Wins 9
7 Draws 2
5 Losses 9
25 Goals For 27
18 Goals Against 29
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
7 BTTS Yes 13
10 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Ferroviária's more proactive style and Paysandu's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paysandu. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Paysandu arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paysandu having the stronger overall control.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 30 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 22:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Paysandu Analysis

Paysandu sit 7 with 29 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 26:27 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviária won 1 times, Paysandu won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:4 from Ferroviária's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.7%)
H2H summary: Ferroviária wins 1, draws 1, Paysandu wins 1

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L W W D
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
W D D W L
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
D W L W D
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
L W W W D
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W L W W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D L W
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L L W L W
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W D W L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation