BRAZIL SERIE C
17.08.2026 23:00
Arena Fonte Luminosa
Referee: P. Vollkopf
Ferroviária
Match Timeline
Paysandu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
Vitor Barreto
Ferroviária
10'
Vitor Barreto
Ferroviária
🟨
20'
M. Thiago
Ferroviária
🟨
23'
Gustavo Medina
Ferroviária
🟨
29'
Felipe Rodrigues
Ferroviária
🟨
35'
F. Bonifazi
Paysandu
🔄
36'
Marcinho ↔ Pablo
Paysandu
🟨
56'
Pedro Henrique
Paysandu
🟨
59'
Vitor Barreto
Ferroviária
🟨
66'
Albano
Ferroviária
🔄
66'
Thalyson ↔ Thayllon
Paysandu
🔄
66'
F. Bonifazi ↔ Luciano Taboca
Paysandu
🔄
67'
Schilling Arthur ↔ Raoni
Ferroviária
🔄
67'
Fau ↔ Juninho
Ferroviária
🔄
73'
Vitor Barreto ↔ Douglas Skilo
Ferroviária
🔄
73'
Caio Mello ↔ Henrico
Paysandu
🔄
73'
Bruno Bispo ↔ Lucas Rodrigues
Paysandu
🟨
76'
Pedro Henrique
Paysandu
🟥
76'
Pedro Henrique
Paysandu
🟨
77'
Rafael Carillho
Ferroviária
78'
Juninho
Ferroviária
🔄
81'
M. Thiago ↔ Denilson Silva
Ferroviária
🔄
81'
Albano ↔ Alan Stence
Ferroviária
🟨
83'
Raoni
Ferroviária
87'
Douglas Skilo
Ferroviária

Ferroviária vs Paysandu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.8%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ferroviária Win 62.8%
Draw 17.9%
Paysandu Win 19.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviária1.19
Paysandu1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WWDLW
17 GF / 14 GA
Paysandu Paysandu
WLDWL
25 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.56
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
6
BTTS Yes
12
5
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviária Ferroviária 16 matches
Paysandu Paysandu 16 matches
Ferroviária Statistic Paysandu
6 Wins 8
6 Draws 2
4 Losses 6
17 Goals For 25
14 Goals Against 22
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
6 BTTS Yes 12
8 Over 1.5 13
5 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paysandu. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Paysandu arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paysandu having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária sit 8 with 24 points after 16 league matches. The record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 17:14 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Paysandu Analysis

Paysandu sit 9 with 23 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 23:21 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviária won 0 times, Paysandu won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Ferroviária's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.1%)
H2H summary: Ferroviária wins 0, draws 1, Paysandu wins 1

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L L W W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D W D D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W D W L W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W L W W W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L W L W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L L L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W W D W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation