BRAZIL SERIE C
29.08.2026 20:00
Arena Fonte Luminosa
Referee: W. Lisboa
Ferroviária
Match Timeline
Confiança
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Maikon Aquino
Confiança
🟨
45'
Confiança
Confiança
🟨
45+1'
Renilson
Confiança
🔄
46'
Schilling Arthur ↔ Alencar
Ferroviária
🔄
46'
Valdir Junior ↔ Guilherme Nunes
Confiança
🟥
51'
Renilson
Confiança
🔄
52'
Maikon Aquino ↔ Alisson
Confiança
🔄
62'
Ricardinho ↔ Alan Stence
Ferroviária
🔄
62'
Fau ↔ Juninho
Ferroviária
🔄
66'
Carlao ↔ Lucas Rodrigues
Ferroviária
🔄
73'
Mateus Ludke ↔ Paulo Henrique
Confiança
🔄
73'
C. Breiner ↔ Danielzinho
Confiança
🔄
75'
Gabriel Zeca ↔ Iago Silva
Confiança
🔄
76'
Eduardo Oliveira ↔ Douglas Skilo
Ferroviária
77'
Ze Vitor
Ferroviária

Ferroviária vs Confiança Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.3%
Odds 1.47
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 2.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.27
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.3%
1.47
BTTS Yes
63.2%
2.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.27
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.96
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.05
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Ferroviária Win 87.3%
Draw 5.5%
Confiança Win 7.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviária1.12
Confiança0.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WWDLW
21 GF / 15 GA
Confiança Confiança
WLDWL
11 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
0.58
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
6
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviária Ferroviária 18 matches
Confiança Confiança 19 matches
Ferroviária Statistic Confiança
7 Wins 3
6 Draws 4
5 Losses 12
21 Goals For 11
15 Goals Against 20
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 0.58
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
6 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 0
8 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Ferroviária's more proactive style and Confiança's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Confiança. Ferroviária arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 27 points compared to Confiança in 20 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Confiança arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Confiança having the stronger overall control.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 27 points from 17 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 21:14 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Confiança Analysis

With 13 points from 17 games and a place of 20, Confiança still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 11:18 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviária won 1 times, Confiança won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Ferroviária's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
H2H summary: Ferroviária wins 1, draws 0, Confiança wins 0

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L W W D
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D W D D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W D W L W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
L W W W D
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W L W W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L L L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W D W L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation