TURKEY SüPER LIG
--.--.---- --:--
Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu
Referee: O. Aksu
Fenerbahçe
Match Timeline
Başakşehir
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
Talisca
Fenerbahçe
36'
A. Harit · Assist: K. Karatas
Başakşehir
🟨
45+2'
Jayden Oosterwolde
Fenerbahçe
🟨
45+3'
Jerome Opoku
Başakşehir
🟨
46'
Ousseynou Ba
Başakşehir
🔄
46'
J. Opoku ↔ O. Ba
Başakşehir
57'
Talisca · Assist: Fred
Fenerbahçe
🔄
61'
B. Yildirim ↔ D. Selke
Başakşehir
🔄
61'
A. Harit ↔ I. Brnic
Başakşehir
🔄
61'
U. Gunes ↔ O. Ergun
Başakşehir
🔄
66'
A. Musaba ↔ O. Aydin
Fenerbahçe
72'
Talisca · Assist: Fred
Fenerbahçe
🔄
74'
E. Shomurodov ↔ N. Da Costa
Başakşehir
🟨
82'
N'Golo Kanté
Fenerbahçe
🔄
82'
Talisca ↔ S. Cherif
Fenerbahçe
🔄
90'
Fred ↔ E. Alvarez
Fenerbahçe

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
59.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fenerbahçe Win 66.6%
Draw 0%
Başakşehir Win 33.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fenerbahçe1.56
Başakşehir1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe
WWDLW
90 GF / 49 GA
Başakşehir Başakşehir
WLDWL
63 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
26
BTTS Yes
21
26
Over 2.5
22
5.66
Shots on Goal
4.51

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 47 matches
Başakşehir Başakşehir 37 matches
Fenerbahçe Statistic Başakşehir
26 Wins 17
14 Draws 10
7 Losses 10
90 Goals For 63
49 Goals Against 38
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
26 BTTS Yes 21
38 Over 1.5 30
26 Over 2.5 22
19 Over 3.5 10
16 Clean Sheets 14
9 Failed To Score 6
5.66 Shots On Goal 4.51
15.47 Total Shots 12.68
6.26 Corners 4.78
57.2% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Başakşehir. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fenerbahçe Analysis

Fenerbahçe approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 67 points after 31 outings. They have recorded 19 wins, 10 draws, and 2 losses, with a 68:33 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Talisca (16 goals), M. Asensio (11 goals), Dorgeles Nene (9 goals), with creative support from M. Asensio (12 assists), K. Akturkoglu (5 assists), Talisca (4 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, their record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Başakşehir Analysis

Başakşehir arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 51 points after 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses, while the 52:31 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Shomurodov (20 goals), D. Selke (9 goals), B. Yildirim (7 goals), with creative support from Yusuf Sarı (6 assists), Miguel Crespo (5 assists), E. Shomurodov (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fenerbahçe won 11 times, Başakşehir won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:12 from Fenerbahçe's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1 / Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Fenerbahçe 8, Başakşehir 0
H2H summary: Fenerbahçe wins 11, draws 1, Başakşehir wins 3

Standings

Super Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 5 5 77:30 47 77
L W L W W
2 34 21 11 2 77:37 40 74
D W W L D
3 34 20 9 5 61:39 22 69
L W D L D
4 34 17 9 8 59:40 19 60
D L W D L
5 34 16 9 9 58:35 23 57
W W L W D
6 34 14 13 7 42:32 10 55
L W D W D
7 34 13 12 9 46:45 1 51
W L W W W
8 34 10 11 13 46:52 -6 41
D L W L D
9 34 10 10 14 43:50 -7 40
L L L W W
10 34 9 10 15 26:38 -12 37
L L D L D
11 34 7 16 11 41:41 0 37
L W D L L
12 34 9 10 15 43:58 -15 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 33:49 -16 35
W L D L W
14 34 9 7 18 36:47 -11 34
W W L W L
15 34 8 9 17 33:48 -15 33
D W D W W
16 34 8 8 18 33:55 -22 32
W L D L L
17 34 6 12 16 27:62 -35 30
W L D W L
18 34 8 6 20 31:54 -23 30
W W W D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation