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TURKEY › SüPER LIG
17.10.2026 16:00
Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu
Referee: C. Altay

Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.07
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67.1%
1.07 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.56 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.83 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Fenerbahçe Win 48%
Draw 19.1%
Alanyaspor Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fenerbahçe1.65
Alanyaspor1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe
WWDLW
41 GF / 17 GA
Alanyaspor Alanyaspor
WLDWL
12 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
2.16
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
8
BTTS Yes
5
10
Over 2.5
4
6.4
Shots on Goal
3.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 19 matches
Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 9 matches
Fenerbahçe Statistic Alanyaspor
12 Wins 4
4 Draws 4
3 Losses 1
41 Goals For 12
17 Goals Against 8
2.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
8 BTTS Yes 5
16 Over 1.5 6
10 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 2
10 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 1
6.4 Shots On Goal 3.29
15.6 Total Shots 11.43
6 Corners 5.29
55.2% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fenerbahçe expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Alanyaspor in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alanyaspor having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Alanyaspor. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fenerbahçe Analysis

Fenerbahçe sit 6 with 10 points after 6 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 16:6 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Vedat Muriqi (6 goals), Mason Greenwood (4 goals), İrfan Can Kahveci (1 goals), with creative support from İrfan Can Kahveci (3 assists), Mason Greenwood (2 assists), Oğuz Aydın (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Alanyaspor Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 11 points from 6 games, Alanyaspor bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, with a 8:6 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Gaius Makouta (2 goals), Arda Usluoğlu (2 goals), Ruan Pereira Duarte (1 goals), with creative support from Florent Hadergjonaj (2 assists), Ruan Pereira Duarte (1 assists), Iván Cédric (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fenerbahçe won 9 times, Alanyaspor won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:16 from Fenerbahçe's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.9%)
Predicted formations: Fenerbahçe 4-3-3 / Alanyaspor 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Fenerbahçe 2, Alanyaspor 1
H2H summary: Fenerbahçe wins 9, draws 5, Alanyaspor wins 1

Standings

Süper Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 16:11 5 16
W L W W W
2 7 5 0 2 16:8 8 15
W L W W W
3 7 4 2 1 17:9 8 14
D W W D W
4 7 4 1 2 19:6 13 13
W W D L W
5 7 4 1 2 16:5 11 13
W W L W L
6 7 3 3 1 8:6 2 12
D W D W L
7 7 4 0 3 8:6 2 12
L W L W W
8 7 3 1 3 16:12 4 10
W L W W L
9 7 2 4 1 8:8 0 10
L D W D D
10 7 3 1 3 7:9 -2 10
L D W L W
11 7 2 2 3 10:11 -1 8
D W L L D
12 7 2 2 3 7:10 -3 8
L L D W L
13 7 2 2 3 7:15 -8 8
D L L L D
14 7 2 2 3 3:11 -8 8
D W L W D
15 7 1 3 3 15:15 0 6
W D D L L
16 7 1 2 4 4:8 -4 5
D D W L L
17 7 1 1 5 6:15 -9 4
L L L L L
18 7 1 0 6 2:20 -18 3
L L L L W
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. Lig