RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
18.04.2026 09:00
Gazovik Stadium
Referee: A. Chistyakov
FC Orenburg
Match Timeline
Lokomotiv
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
42'
Gedeon Guzina
FC Orenburg
🟨
43'
Artem Karpukas
Lokomotiv
🔄
54'
A. Karpukas ↔ L. Vera
Lokomotiv
🟨
60'
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Lokomotiv
🔄
61'
G. Guzina ↔ Alexandre Jesus
FC Orenburg
🔄
64'
Z. Bakaev ↔ D. Chevardin
Lokomotiv
⚽
70'
A. Batrakov · Assist: A. Silyanov
Lokomotiv
🔄
71'
Du Queiroz ↔ R. Kul
FC Orenburg
🔄
72'
D. Puebla ↔ D. Rybchinskiy
FC Orenburg
🔄
79'
F. Moufi ↔ S. Poroykov
FC Orenburg
🔄
80'
E. Bolotov ↔ R. Golybin
FC Orenburg
🟨
89'
Jhon Palacios
FC Orenburg
🟨
90'
Bogdan Ovsyannikov
FC Orenburg
🟨
90+3'
Lucas Fasson
Lokomotiv
🟨
90'
Dmitriy Vorobyev
Lokomotiv

FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 81%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
81%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Orenburg Win 36.2%
Draw 5.3%
Lokomotiv Win 58.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Orenburg1.15
Lokomotiv1.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
WWDLW
24 GF / 36 GA
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv
WLDWL
50 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
2.08
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
12
BTTS Yes
18
10
Over 2.5
15
3.96
Shots on Goal
5.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 24 matches
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv 24 matches
FC Orenburg Statistic Lokomotiv
4 Wins 12
8 Draws 9
12 Losses 3
24 Goals For 50
36 Goals Against 33
1 Avg Goals Scored 2.08
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
12 BTTS Yes 18
15 Over 1.5 22
10 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 4
11 Failed To Score 2
3.96 Shots On Goal 5.42
11.96 Total Shots 13.79
5.33 Corners 4.08
47.8% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lokomotiv's more proactive style and FC Orenburg's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lokomotiv. Lokomotiv carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 45 points while FC Orenburg sit 15 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FC Orenburg Analysis

FC Orenburg approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 20 points from 24 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 24:36 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Thompson (5 goals), E. Gurluk (4 goals), M. Savelyev (3 goals), with creative support from J. Thompson (2 assists), E. Gurluk (1 assists), Du Queiroz (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lokomotiv Analysis

Lokomotiv come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 45 points from 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses, while the 50:33 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Batrakov (12 goals), D. Vorobyev (10 goals), A. Rudenko (6 goals), with creative support from A. Batrakov (8 assists), Z. Bakaev (5 assists), N. Komlichenko (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. Although they are without S. Pinyaev, N. Komlichenko, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Orenburg won 2 times, Lokomotiv won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:30 from FC Orenburg's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
Missing players: FC Orenburg 0, Lokomotiv 2
H2H summary: FC Orenburg wins 2, draws 2, Lokomotiv wins 11

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation