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21.11.2026 10:00
Gazovik Stadium

FC Orenburg vs Baltika Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 76%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
76%
- ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Orenburg Win 24%
Draw 30.1%
Baltika Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Orenburg1.15
Baltika1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
L D W D W
7 GF / 4 GA
Baltika Baltika
L W D D D
3 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
12
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
13
4.36
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 26 matches
Baltika Baltika 26 matches
FC Orenburg Statistic Baltika
11 Wins 12
8 Draws 8
7 Losses 6
35 Goals For 43
26 Goals Against 22
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
12 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 12
9 Failed To Score 5
4.36 Shots On Goal 4.36
13.29 Total Shots 13.14
3.64 Corners 5.14
39.4% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Baltika's more proactive style and FC Orenburg's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Orenburg expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Baltika in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Baltika having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Baltika. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

FC Orenburg Analysis

From their first 14 matches, FC Orenburg have collected 17 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses, while the 14:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Thompson (3 goals), G. Guzina (3 goals), R. Kul (2 goals), with creative support from J. Thompson (3 assists), R. Kul (2 assists), G. Guzina (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika sit 9 with 17 points after 14 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 17:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Gil (5 goals), N. Titkov (3 goals), C. Offor (2 goals), with creative support from N. Gassama (2 assists), V. Pospelov (2 assists), B. Gil (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, FC Orenburg won 4 times, Baltika won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:10 from FC Orenburg's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.1 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (76%)
Predicted formations: FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1 / Baltika 5-4-1
H2H summary: FC Orenburg wins 4, draws 3, Baltika wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 1 3 32:15 17 31
D W W W W
2 14 10 1 3 23:13 10 31
W W L W W
3 14 9 2 3 27:11 16 29
W W L W D
4 14 7 5 2 25:18 7 26
W L D D L
5 14 7 5 2 23:16 7 26
L D W L W
6 14 5 4 5 18:19 -1 19
D W W D W
7 14 4 6 4 19:20 -1 18
W L W L D
8 14 4 6 4 14:18 -4 18
W W L L L
9 14 4 5 5 17:15 2 17
L W D D D
10 14 3 8 3 14:14 0 17
L D W D W
11 14 5 1 8 17:26 -9 16
W L L D L
12 14 3 5 6 16:19 -3 14
W L L L D
13 14 3 3 8 15:29 -14 12
L W W D L
14 14 2 6 6 17:25 -8 12
L L W D L
15 14 2 5 7 16:21 -5 11
L L L D W
16 14 1 3 10 9:23 -14 6
L L L W L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL