SWITZERLAND › SUPER LEAGUE
17.05.2026 14:30
Stadio di Cornaredo
Referee: U. Schnyder
FC Lugano
Match Timeline
FC Basel 1893
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
K. Behrens · Assist: E. Alioski
FC Lugano
🟨
27'
Kevin Rüegg
FC Basel 1893
🟨
30'
Antonios Papadopoulos
FC Lugano
🔄
30'
J. Duranville ↔ M. Soticek
FC Basel 1893
⚽
36'
K. Behrens · Assist: E. Alioski
FC Lugano
🟨
39'
Andrej Bačanin
FC Basel 1893
🔄
46'
K. Behrens ↔ G. Koutsias
FC Lugano
🔄
46'
K. Ruegg ↔ K. Tsunemoto
FC Basel 1893
⚽
52'
R. Steffen
FC Lugano
⚽
56'
G. Koutsias
FC Lugano
🔄
59'
R. Steffen ↔ M. Bottani
FC Lugano
🔄
62'
A. Bacanin ↔ X. Shaqiri
FC Basel 1893
🔄
62'
A. Ajeti ↔ G. Koloto
FC Basel 1893
🔄
62'
I. Salah ↔ M. Cisse
FC Basel 1893
🔄
79'
M. Belhadj ↔ A. Kendouci
FC Lugano
🔄
80'
Y. Cimignani ↔ E. Pihlstrom
FC Lugano
🟨
85'
Mattia Zanotti
FC Lugano
🔄
86'
U. Bislimi ↔ G. Ajdin
FC Lugano

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Lugano Win 45.4%
Draw 21.9%
FC Basel 1893 Win 32.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Lugano1.46
FC Basel 18931.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Lugano FC Lugano
WWDLW
59 GF / 50 GA
FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 1893
WLDWL
65 GF / 70 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.49
24
BTTS Yes
29
19
Over 2.5
28
4.46
Shots on Goal
5.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Lugano FC Lugano 41 matches
FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 1893 47 matches
FC Lugano Statistic FC Basel 1893
19 Wins 18
11 Draws 9
11 Losses 20
59 Goals For 65
50 Goals Against 70
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.49
24 BTTS Yes 29
28 Over 1.5 40
19 Over 2.5 28
12 Over 3.5 13
12 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 11
4.46 Shots On Goal 5.32
12.49 Total Shots 14.94
3.63 Corners 5.4
53.4% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Basel 1893. FC Lugano come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Lugano expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and FC Basel 1893 in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Basel 1893 having the stronger overall control.

FC Lugano Analysis

FC Lugano come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 63 points after 36 matches. With 18 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats plus a goal balance of 53:40, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Behrens (11 goals), A. Grgic (7 goals), R. Steffen (7 goals), with creative support from D. Dos Santos (10 assists), A. Grgic (6 assists), R. Steffen (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

FC Basel 1893 Analysis

FC Basel 1893 sit 5 with 56 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 16 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 54:51 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Xherdan Shaqiri (11 goals), Bénie Traoré (9 goals), P. Otele (5 goals), with creative support from Xherdan Shaqiri (10 assists), D. Schmid (5 assists), P. Otele (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Lugano won 7 times, FC Basel 1893 won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:20 from FC Lugano's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.1%)
Predicted formations: FC Lugano 3-4-2-1 / FC Basel 1893 4-3-3
H2H summary: FC Lugano wins 7, draws 5, FC Basel 1893 wins 3

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 24 2 7 75:37 38 74
D L L L L
2 33 17 9 7 64:40 24 60
D W W L W
3 33 16 9 8 50:38 12 57
W D L W W
4 33 15 8 10 51:45 6 53
L L L W L
5 33 13 13 7 51:35 16 52
D D W W W
6 33 13 9 11 65:60 5 48
D W W L L
7 33 10 10 13 64:61 3 40
W W D W W
8 33 9 13 11 57:57 0 40
W W D W W
9 33 10 9 14 47:57 -10 39
L L L L W
10 33 10 4 19 45:63 -18 34
L L W D L
11 33 6 9 18 40:65 -25 27
W D W W L
12 33 4 7 22 35:86 -51 19
L L W D L
Championship round
Relegation Round