RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Ozon Arena
Referee: K. Levnikov
FC Krasnodar
Match Timeline
Baltika
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Ivan Belikov
Baltika
🟨
22'
Aleksandr Chernikov
FC Krasnodar
🟨
24'
Ilya Petrov
Baltika
43'
M. Beveev
Baltika
🔄
46'
I. Belikov ↔ A. Mendel
Baltika
🔄
46'
I. Petrov ↔ I. Manelov
Baltika
59'
J. Boselli
FC Krasnodar
🔄
62'
J. Boselli ↔ M. D. Cobnan
FC Krasnodar
66'
M. Petrov
Baltika
🔄
69'
Derik Lacerda ↔ C. Offor
Baltika
🔄
69'
N. Gassama ↔ M. Ryadno
Baltika
🟨
71'
Giovanni González
FC Krasnodar
🔄
71'
G. Gonzalez ↔ V. Paltsev
FC Krasnodar
🟨
81'
Moses David Cobnan
FC Krasnodar
🟨
85'
Ivan Kukushkin
Baltika
🟨
90+5'
Andrey Mendel
Baltika
🟨
90+4'
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor
Baltika
🔄
90+1'
Joao Batxi ↔ Jubal Junior
FC Krasnodar
🔄
90'
M. Petrov ↔ E. Anderson
Baltika
90'
Jubal Junior · Assist: M. D. Cobnan
FC Krasnodar

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 78%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
78%
-
Probability Distribution
FC Krasnodar Win 62.1%
Draw 9%
Baltika Win 28.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Krasnodar1.44
Baltika1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
WWDLW
49 GF / 17 GA
Baltika Baltika
WLDWL
34 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
2.04
Average Goals Scored
1.42
0.71
Average Goals Conceded
0.54
12
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
6
4.83
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 24 matches
Baltika Baltika 24 matches
FC Krasnodar Statistic Baltika
16 Wins 11
5 Draws 11
3 Losses 2
49 Goals For 34
17 Goals Against 13
2.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 0.54
12 BTTS Yes 8
19 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 14
2 Failed To Score 6
4.83 Shots On Goal 4.21
15.67 Total Shots 12.46
5.38 Corners 3.42
59.3% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. FC Krasnodar appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Baltika. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Baltika. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Krasnodar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Baltika in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Baltika having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FC Krasnodar Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 53 points from 24 games, FC Krasnodar bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 16 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a 49:17 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on J. Cordoba (14 goals), E. Spertsyan (11 goals), Nikita Krivtsov (6 goals), with creative support from E. Spertsyan (14 assists), J. Cordoba (5 assists), Joao Batxi (4 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 10 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with A. Koksharov, S. Petrov, V. Stezhko, K. Lenini unavailable.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 44 points from 24 matches. The record of 11 wins, 11 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 34:13 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Gil (13 goals), Maksim Petrov (6 goals), C. Offor (3 goals), with creative support from Ilya Petrov (4 assists), Nathan Gassama (3 assists), Maksim Petrov (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with T. Yenne unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, FC Krasnodar won 1 times, Baltika won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:8 from FC Krasnodar's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
Predicted formations: FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1 / Baltika 3-4-3
Missing players: FC Krasnodar 4, Baltika 2
H2H summary: FC Krasnodar wins 1, draws 4, Baltika wins 0
Stats
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
Baltika Baltika
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 2
11 Fouls 22
1 Offsides 1
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Goal 4
7 Shots off Goal 8
4 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 8
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
418 Total passes 230
319 Passes accurate 136
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Krasnodar
Formation
Baltika
S. Agkatsev
S. Agkatsev
G. Gonzalez
G. Gonzalez
Tormena
Tormena
Diego Costa
Diego Costa
L. Olaza
L. Olaza
N. Krivtsov
N. Krivtsov
A. Chernikov
A. Chernikov
J. Boselli
J. Boselli
E. Spertsyan
E. Spertsyan
Joao Batxi
Joao Batxi
J. Cordoba
J. Cordoba
I. Kukushkin
I. Kukushkin
M. Beveev
M. Beveev
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov
K. Andrade
K. Andrade
A. Filin
A. Filin
N. Gassama
N. Gassama
N. Titkov
N. Titkov
I. Belikov
I. Belikov
I. Petrov
I. Petrov
M. Petrov
M. Petrov
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda
FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
S. Agkatsev
G
20
G. Gonzalez
↓ 71' 🟨 71'
D
3
Tormena
D
4
Diego Costa
D
15
L. Olaza
D
88
N. Krivtsov
M
53
A. Chernikov
🟨 22'
M
23
J. Boselli
⚽ 59' ↓ 62'
M
10
E. Spertsyan
M
11
Joao Batxi
↓ 90+1'
M
9
J. Cordoba
F
Substitutes
16
A. Koryakin
G
34
A. Karpenko
G
17
V. Paltsev
↑ 71'
D
59
A. Khmarin
D
27
E. Burkin
M
5
Jubal Junior
⚽ 90' ↑ 90+1'
D
90
M. D. Cobnan
🎯 90' ↑ 62' 🟨 81'
F
29
E. Guseynov
F
30
S. Sadchikov
D
Baltika 5-4-1
Starting XI
81
I. Kukushkin
🟨 85'
G
23
M. Beveev
⚽ 43'
D
2
S. Varatynov
D
16
K. Andrade
D
25
A. Filin
D
4
N. Gassama
↓ 69'
D
22
N. Titkov
M
26
I. Belikov
↓ 46' 🟨 17'
M
10
I. Petrov
↓ 46' 🟨 24'
M
73
M. Petrov
⚽ 66' ↓ 90'
M
18
Derik Lacerda
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
44
E. Lyubakov
G
36
A. Tsitsilin
G
14
S. Kovac
M
5
A. Mourid
M
90
C. Offor
↑ 69' 🟨 90+4'
F
42
V. Pospelov
M
11
Y. Kovalev
M
8
A. Mendel
↑ 46' 🟨 90+5'
M
91
B. Gil
F
69
I. Manelov
↑ 46'
F
21
E. Anderson
↑ 90'
D
68
M. Ryadno
↑ 69'
D
Last matches: FC Krasnodar
19.07.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
3
3
D
25.06.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
PSK Dinskaya
5
1
W
17.05.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
3
0
W
11.05.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Akron
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
1
W
23.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Akhmat
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Amkal
4
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Nizhny Novgorod
5
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Sochi
2
1
W
08.03.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Rubin
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
2
1
W
17.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
0
1
L
10.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Dynamo
0
1
L
06.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
3
0
W
03.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
CSKA Moscow
2
2
D
27.01.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Yelimay Semey
2
1
W
Last matches: Baltika
24.07.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
6
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
5
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Akron
1
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Volga Ulyanovsk
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Dynamo
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akron
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akhmat
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
1
1
D
27.02.26
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
1
L
22.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Akhmat
2
2
D
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Kaisar
2
1
W
H2H: FC Krasnodar vs Baltika
19.07.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
1
1
D
19.04.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
2
2
D
09.11.25
H2H
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
24.04.24
H2H
Krasnodar
Baltika
3
2
L
21.10.23
H2H
Baltika
Krasnodar
2
2
D
Last matches: FC Krasnodar
19.07.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
3
3
D
25.06.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
PSK Dinskaya
5
1
W
17.05.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
3
0
W
26.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Amkal
4
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Nizhny Novgorod
5
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
2
1
W
17.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
0
1
L
06.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
3
0
W
27.01.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Yelimay Semey
2
1
W
07.12.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
CSKA Moscow
3
2
W
30.11.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Krylia Sovetov
5
0
W
02.11.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
2
1
W
26.10.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Rubin
1
0
W
04.10.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Akhmat
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
0
2
L
13.09.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Akron
2
1
W
17.08.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Sochi
5
1
W
02.08.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Dynamo
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Krasnodar
19.07.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
1
1
D
19.04.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
2
2
D
Last matches: Baltika
24.07.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
6
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
5
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Akron
1
0
W
10.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akhmat
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
1
1
D
27.02.26
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
1
L
22.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
05.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Chelyabinsk
2
0
W
22.11.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Orenburg
0
0
D
26.10.25
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
0
0
D
19.10.25
Pre
Baltika
Rubin
3
0
W
28.09.25
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
0
1
L
31.08.25
Pre
Baltika
Akron
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
2
0
W
09.08.25
Pre
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
1
D
26.07.25
Pre
Baltika
Spartak Moscow
3
0
W
H2H away: Baltika
19.07.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
1
1
D
19.04.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
2
2
D
24.04.24
H2H
Krasnodar
Baltika
3
2
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

FC Krasnodar 4 missing
-
A. Koksharov
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
S. Petrov
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
V. Stezhko
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
K. Lenini
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Baltika 2 missing
-
T. Yenne
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
E. Civic
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT