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GERMANY › 3. LIGA
17.10.2026 12:00
Audi Sportpark
Referee: Lennart Kernchen

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.2%
Odds 1.95
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.49
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.2%
1.95 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.49 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85%
1.11 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Ingolstadt 04 Win 34.1%
Draw 15.7%
Rot-Weiß Essen Win 50.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Ingolstadt 041.42
Rot-Weiß Essen2.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04
WWDLW
24 GF / 27 GA
Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen
WLDWL
41 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
2.56
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
8
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
11
3.56
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04 17 matches
Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen 16 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 Statistic Rot-Weiß Essen
7 Wins 8
2 Draws 4
8 Losses 4
24 Goals For 41
27 Goals Against 23
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 2.56
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
8 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 3
3.56 Shots On Goal 3.89
11.89 Total Shots 12.78
3.78 Corners 4.11
40.2% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Rot-Weiß Essen's more proactive style and FC Ingolstadt 04's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rot-Weiß Essen. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Ingolstadt 04 have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to line up in 3-3-3-1 and Rot-Weiß Essen in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rot-Weiß Essen having the stronger overall control. Rot-Weiß Essen carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 15 points while FC Ingolstadt 04 sit 14 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

FC Ingolstadt 04 Analysis

FC Ingolstadt 04 approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 8 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 7:11 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rot-Weiß Essen Analysis

Rot-Weiß Essen approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 15 points after 8 outings. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 16:12, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, FC Ingolstadt 04 won 1 times, Rot-Weiß Essen won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:18 from FC Ingolstadt 04's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.38 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Predicted formations: FC Ingolstadt 04 3-3-3-1 / Rot-Weiß Essen 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Ingolstadt 04 wins 1, draws 3, Rot-Weiß Essen wins 4

Standings

3 Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 0 1 26:11 15 24
W W W W L
2 9 6 1 2 26:13 13 19
D W W W W
3 9 5 3 1 18:12 6 18
W D D W W
4 9 4 3 2 17:17 0 15
L W D W L
5 9 4 2 3 21:16 5 14
L D W D L
6 9 4 2 3 10:10 0 14
W D L W W
7 10 4 2 4 17:18 -1 14
W W D D L
8 9 4 1 4 18:14 4 13
L L W W D
9 9 4 1 4 16:14 2 13
L W W L W
10 9 3 3 3 16:18 -2 12
L D L D W
11 9 3 3 3 14:17 -3 12
D D W D W
12 9 3 2 4 13:16 -3 11
L L W L D
13 9 3 2 4 12:15 -3 11
W L L L W
14 9 3 2 4 12:15 -3 11
W W L W L
15 10 2 4 4 8:11 -3 10
L L D W L
16 9 3 1 5 11:16 -5 10
W D L L L
17 9 2 3 4 20:19 1 9
D W D L D
18 9 2 3 4 9:16 -7 9
D L L D D
19 9 2 2 5 13:19 -6 8
D L L W L
20 9 1 2 6 12:22 -10 5
D L L L D
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation