🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
TQL Stadium
Referee: J. Freemon
FC Cincinnati
Match Timeline
Vancouver Whitecaps
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Tristan Blackmon
Vancouver Whitecaps
9'
P. Bucha · Assist: S. Gidi
FC Cincinnati
12'
J. Badwal · Assist: B. Caicedo
Vancouver Whitecaps
🟨
17'
Mathías Laborda
Vancouver Whitecaps
25'
R. Gauld · Assist: O. Larraz
Vancouver Whitecaps
28'
K. Denkey · Assist: E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati
36'
Evander · Assist: G. Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
🟨
41'
Pavel Bucha
FC Cincinnati
🔄
44'
B. Caicedo ↔ C. Sabaly
Vancouver Whitecaps
🟨
48'
Édier Ocampo
Vancouver Whitecaps
56'
P. Bucha · Assist: Evander
FC Cincinnati
58'
R. Gauld · Assist: J. Badwal
Vancouver Whitecaps
🟨
59'
Andrés Cubas
Vancouver Whitecaps
🔄
62'
J. Badwal ↔ J. Ngando
Vancouver Whitecaps
🔄
63'
R. Gauld ↔ N. Djordjevic
Vancouver Whitecaps
🔄
64'
E. Echenique ↔ B. J. Ramirez Leon
FC Cincinnati
🔄
64'
M. Robinson ↔ K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
64'
K. Mboma ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🟨
78'
Brian White
Vancouver Whitecaps
🔄
84'
E. Ocampo ↔ R. Veselinovic
Vancouver Whitecaps
🔄
84'
A. Cubas ↔ R. Elloumi
Vancouver Whitecaps
🔄
89'
S. Gidi ↔ T. Hadebe
FC Cincinnati
🔄
89'
K. Denkey ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.2%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.2%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Cincinnati Win 44%
Draw 11.8%
Vancouver Whitecaps Win 44.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati1.94
Vancouver Whitecaps1.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WWDLW
61 GF / 48 GA
Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps
WLDWL
39 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
2.54
Average Goals Scored
1.77
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
16
BTTS Yes
9
16
Over 2.5
11
6
Shots on Goal
6.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 24 matches
Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 22 matches
FC Cincinnati Statistic Vancouver Whitecaps
10 Wins 12
7 Draws 3
7 Losses 7
61 Goals For 39
48 Goals Against 23
2.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
16 BTTS Yes 9
21 Over 1.5 17
16 Over 2.5 11
15 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 8
2 Failed To Score 6
6 Shots On Goal 6.39
14 Total Shots 17.17
4.63 Corners 6.11
50% Ball Possession 57.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Vancouver Whitecaps's more proactive style and FC Cincinnati's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cincinnati expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Vancouver Whitecaps in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vancouver Whitecaps having the stronger overall control. Vancouver Whitecaps carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 32 points while FC Cincinnati sit 7 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vancouver Whitecaps. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati are currently 7 in the standings with 20 points from 15 matches. The record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 36:37 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Evander (9 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), T. Barlow (5 goals), with creative support from Evander (6 assists), P. Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vancouver Whitecaps Analysis

Placed 1 with 32 points from 14 outings, Vancouver Whitecaps continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 34:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. White (10 goals), S. Berhalter (6 goals), T. Muller (4 goals), with creative support from S. Berhalter (4 assists), B. White (2 assists), T. Muller (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, FC Cincinnati won 1 times, Vancouver Whitecaps won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from FC Cincinnati's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.2%)
Predicted formations: FC Cincinnati 3-4-2-1 / Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Cincinnati wins 1, draws 2, Vancouver Whitecaps wins 1
Stats
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
6
1 Corner Kicks 3
12 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 3
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Goal 6
1 Shots off Goal 7
3 Blocked Shots 6
7 Shots insidebox 16
3 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 2
396 Total passes 630
331 Passes accurate 566
1.56 expected_goals 1.82
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Cincinnati
Formation
Vancouver Whitecaps
R. Celentano
R. Celentano
M. Robinson
M. Robinson
M. Miazga
M. Miazga
S. Gidi
🎯
S. Gidi
P. Bucha
⚽ 2
P. Bucha
G. Valenzuela
🎯
G. Valenzuela
O. Nwobodo
O. Nwobodo
E. Echenique
🎯
E. Echenique
K. Mboma
K. Mboma
Evander
🎯
Evander
K. Denkey
K. Denkey
Y. Takaoka
Y. Takaoka
E. Ocampo
E. Ocampo
T. Blackmon
T. Blackmon
M. Laborda
M. Laborda
T. Johnson
T. Johnson
O. Larraz
🎯
O. Larraz
A. Cubas
A. Cubas
J. Badwal
🎯
J. Badwal
R. Gauld
⚽ 2
R. Gauld
B. Caicedo
🎯
B. Caicedo
B. White
B. White
FC Cincinnati 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
18
R. Celentano
G
12
M. Robinson
↓ 64'
D
21
M. Miazga
D
11
S. Gidi
🎯 9' ↓ 89'
D
20
P. Bucha
⚽ 9' ⚽ 56' 🟨 41'
M
22
G. Valenzuela
🎯 36'
M
5
O. Nwobodo
M
66
E. Echenique
🎯 28' ↓ 64'
M
17
K. Mboma
↓ 64'
F
10
Evander
⚽ 36' 🎯 56'
F
9
K. Denkey
⚽ 28' ↓ 89'
F
Substitutes
13
E. Louro
G
4
N. Hagglund
D
15
T. Hadebe
↑ 89'
D
27
T. Anunga
M
99
A. Jabbari
↑ 89'
F
29
B. J. Ramirez Leon
↑ 64'
D
2
A. Powell
D
24
K. Smith
↑ 64'
D
16
T. Barlow
↑ 64'
F
Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Y. Takaoka
G
18
E. Ocampo
↓ 84' 🟨 48'
D
33
T. Blackmon
🟨 2'
D
2
M. Laborda
🟨 17'
D
28
T. Johnson
D
8
O. Larraz
🎯 25'
M
20
A. Cubas
↓ 84' 🟨 59'
M
59
J. Badwal
⚽ 12' 🎯 58' ↓ 62'
M
25
R. Gauld
⚽ 25' ⚽ 58' ↓ 63'
M
14
B. Caicedo
🎯 12' ↓ 44'
M
24
B. White
🟨 78'
F
Substitutes
32
I. Boehmer
G
13
T. Muller
F
4
R. Veselinovic
↑ 84'
D
29
M. Gherasimencov
D
19
R. Elloumi
↑ 84'
F
3
S. Adekugbe
D
7
C. Sabaly
↑ 44'
F
26
J. Ngando
↑ 62'
M
41
N. Djordjevic
↑ 63'
D
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
01.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Jose Earthquakes
4
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
1
2
L
10.07.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Burnley
3
1
W
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
28.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
Last matches: Vancouver Whitecaps
01.08.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Minnesota United FC
0
0
D
24.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Diego
4
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
14.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Dallas
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
03.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
26.04.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
3
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
New York City FC
2
0
W
05.04.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Portland Timbers
3
2
W
22.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
19.03.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
Seattle Sounders
1
2
L
15.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Minnesota United FC
6
0
W
13.03.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
Seattle Sounders
0
3
L
08.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Portland Timbers
4
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Toronto FC
3
0
W
26.02.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
CS Cartagines
2
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Real Salt Lake
1
0
W
19.02.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
CS Cartagines
0
0
D
H2H: FC Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps
22.07.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
4
3
W
11.06.23
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
14.07.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
2
2
D
04.08.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
2
L
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
01.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Jose Earthquakes
4
2
W
10.07.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Burnley
3
1
W
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Cincinnati
22.07.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
4
3
W
14.07.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
2
2
D
04.08.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
2
L
Last matches: Vancouver Whitecaps
26.07.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Minnesota United FC
0
0
D
24.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Diego
4
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
14.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Dallas
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
03.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
19.03.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
Seattle Sounders
1
2
L
08.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Portland Timbers
4
1
W
19.02.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
CS Cartagines
0
0
D
27.01.26
Fri
Vancouver Whitecaps
Polessya
0
2
L
H2H away: Vancouver Whitecaps
22.07.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
4
3
L
14.07.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
2
2
D
04.08.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
2
W

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 4 2 35:14 21 40
D L W W W
2 18 11 5 2 45:32 13 38
D W W W W
3 17 9 3 5 28:21 7 30
D W D L W
4 17 9 2 6 32:23 9 29
W L L W W
5 18 7 5 6 31:24 7 26
D W W L D
6 18 7 5 6 45:44 1 26
W L W W D
7 18 7 4 7 29:27 2 25
L W D W W
8 18 7 4 7 29:39 -10 25
W L L W D
9 18 5 8 5 26:29 -3 23
D W D D D
10 18 6 2 10 30:47 -17 20
L W W L D
11 18 5 5 8 26:28 -2 20
D W L W D
12 18 3 8 7 24:32 -8 17
D L D D L
13 18 4 4 10 25:33 -8 16
W W W L D
14 18 4 4 10 24:35 -11 16
D L L D D
15 18 3 3 12 19:33 -14 12
L L D L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)