PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio de la UNSA
Referee: M. Espinoza
FBC Melgar
Match Timeline
Sporting Cristal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
N. Quagliata
FBC Melgar
🟨
29'
K. Minda
FBC Melgar
🟨
39'
C. Cabellos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
C. Cabellos ↔ I. Wisdom
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
L. Iberico ↔ S. Gonzalez
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
J. Gonzalez ↔ R. Lutiger
Sporting Cristal
🟨
61'
R. Lutiger
Sporting Cristal
62'
J. Vidales
FBC Melgar
🔄
65'
M. Hoyos ↔ I. Avila
Sporting Cristal
🔄
65'
M. Tavara ↔ H. Barcos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
72'
C. Bordacahar ↔ J. Caceres
FBC Melgar
76'
I. Avila · Assist: M. Castro
Sporting Cristal
🔄
77'
J. Vidales ↔ M. Zegarra
FBC Melgar
🔄
87'
N. Quagliata ↔ J. D'Arrigo
FBC Melgar
🔄
87'
N. Cabanillas ↔ M. Portillo
FBC Melgar
🟨
89'
Y. Yotun
Sporting Cristal

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.6%
Odds 1.69
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.6%
1.69
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.68
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 85.6%
Draw 5.2%
Sporting Cristal Win 9.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.63
Sporting Cristal1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
39 GF / 26 GA
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WLDWL
42 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
16
BTTS Yes
19
13
Over 2.5
18
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 23 matches
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 29 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic Sporting Cristal
11 Wins 10
6 Draws 6
6 Losses 13
39 Goals For 42
26 Goals Against 44
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
16 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 4
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.82
14.06 Total Shots 14.61
4.83 Corners 5.5
53.7% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights FBC Melgar's more proactive style and Sporting Cristal's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sporting Cristal.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 28 points after 17 outings. With 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 29:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Jhonny Vidales (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

Sporting Cristal sit 12 with 19 points after 17 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 28:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Gustavo Cazonatti (3 goals), Felipe Vizeu (3 goals), Yoshimar Yotún (2 goals), with creative support from Yoshimar Yotún (4 assists), Maxloren Castro (1 assists), Gabriel Santana (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 8 times, Sporting Cristal won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:10 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1 / Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 8, draws 2, Sporting Cristal wins 4
Stats
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
2
5 Corner Kicks 2
7 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 1
56% Ball Possession 44%
28 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Goal 4
12 Shots off Goal 5
8 Blocked Shots 2
17 Shots insidebox 5
11 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 6
542 Total passes 417
466 Passes accurate 342
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FBC Melgar
Formation
Sporting Cristal
Jorge Cabezudo
Jorge Cabezudo
Matías Lazo
Matías Lazo
Juan Escobar
Juan Escobar
Leonel González
Leonel González
Nelson Cabanillas
Nelson Cabanillas
Walter Tandazo
Walter Tandazo
Kevin Minda
Kevin Minda
Cristian Bordacahar
Cristian Bordacahar
Nicolás Quagliata
Nicolás Quagliata
Jhonny Vidales
Jhonny Vidales
Bernardo Cuesta
Bernardo Cuesta
Diego Enríquez
Diego Enríquez
Juan Cruz Gonzalez
Juan Cruz Gonzalez
Miguel Araujo
Miguel Araujo
Luis Abram
Luis Abram
Cristiano
Cristiano
Catriel Cabellos
Catriel Cabellos
Martín Távara
Martín Távara
Yoshimar Yotún
Yoshimar Yotún
Maxloren Castro
🎯
Maxloren Castro
Michael Hoyos
Michael Hoyos
Luis Iberico
Luis Iberico
FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
21
Jorge Cabezudo
G
33
Matías Lazo
D
23
Juan Escobar
D
3
Leonel González
D
27
Nelson Cabanillas
↓ 87'
D
24
Walter Tandazo
M
25
Kevin Minda
🟨 29'
M
7
Cristian Bordacahar
↓ 72'
M
10
Nicolás Quagliata
⚽ 28' ↓ 87'
M
11
Jhonny Vidales
⚽ 62' ↓ 77'
M
9
Bernardo Cuesta
F
Substitutes
16
Jefferson Caceres
↑ 72'
M
45
Matías Zegarra
↑ 77'
D
80
Jhamir D'Arrigo
↑ 87'
M
26
Marcos Portillo
↑ 87'
M
12
Carlos Cáceda
G
5
Alec Deneumostier
D
90
Jesus Alcantar
D
77
Franco Zanelatto
F
8
Lautaro Guzmán
F
Sporting Cristal 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Diego Enríquez
G
18
Juan Cruz Gonzalez
↓ 46'
D
20
Miguel Araujo
D
96
Luis Abram
D
90
Cristiano
D
21
Catriel Cabellos
↓ 46' 🟨 39'
M
25
Martín Távara
↓ 65'
M
19
Yoshimar Yotún
🟨 89'
M
23
Maxloren Castro
🎯 76'
F
22
Michael Hoyos
↓ 65'
F
16
Luis Iberico
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
5
Rafael Lutiger
↑ 46' 🟨 61'
D
26
Ian Wisdom
↑ 46'
M
7
Santiago González
↑ 46'
F
11
Irven Ávila
⚽ 76' ↑ 65'
F
29
Hernán Barcos
↑ 65'
F
33
César Bautista
G
32
Leonardo Díaz
D
2
Duham Ballumbrosio
D
27
Gabriel Santana
M
Last matches: FBC Melgar
18.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
3
1
W
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
Last matches: Sporting Cristal
17.07.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
2
3
L
28.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Cerro Porteno
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
ADT
2
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Junior
2
3
L
15.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
10.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
05.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Palmeiras
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Cusco
2
2
D
29.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Junior
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Atletico Grau
1
4
L
19.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
UTC Cajamarca
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Palmeiras
1
2
L
09.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Cerro Porteno
1
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Sport Boys
3
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Carabobo FC
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
H2H: FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
26.07.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
08.02.26
H2H
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
1
2
W
10.08.25
H2H
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
1
0
L
08.03.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
0
W
22.08.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
0
W
14.03.24
H2H
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
1
2
W
23.07.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
17.02.23
H2H
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
1
0
L
06.11.22
H2H
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
0
2
W
02.11.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
0
W
17.07.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
0
1
L
13.02.22
H2H
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
2
2
D
27.08.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
0
1
L
02.08.20
H2H
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
16.02.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
0
W
Last matches: FBC Melgar
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Macara
2
1
W
17.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
2
0
W
H2H at home: FBC Melgar
26.07.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
0
W
22.08.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
0
W
23.07.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
02.11.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
0
W
17.07.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
0
1
L
27.08.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
0
1
L
16.02.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
0
W
Last matches: Sporting Cristal
31.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
2
3
L
28.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Cerro Porteno
0
2
L
21.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Junior
2
3
L
15.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
10.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Atletico Grau
1
4
L
16.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Palmeiras
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
3
L
04.03.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Carabobo FC
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Sport Huancayo
1
2
L
18.02.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
2 de Mayo
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
H2H away: Sporting Cristal
26.07.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
L
08.03.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
0
L
22.08.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
0
L
23.07.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
02.11.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
0
L
17.07.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
0
1
W
27.08.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
0
1
W
16.02.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.39
Draw 3.84
Home 1.69
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.33
Home 2.14
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.0 1.31
Over 2.25 1.49
Over 2.5 1.68
Over 2.75 1.88
Over 3.0 2.16
Over 3.25 2.44
Over 3.5 2.73
Under 2.0 3.26
Under 2.25 2.51
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 2.75 1.93
Under 3.0 1.67
Under 3.25 1.52
Under 3.5 1.42
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 3.60
Home 1.70
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.38
Home 2.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.62
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.5 1.73
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 4.5 5.50
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 23.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.5 2.08
Under 3.5 1.40
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.57
Draw 3.84
Home 1.69
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.86
Draw 2.24
Home 2.23
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.46
Draw 2.69
Home 1.98
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.09
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 1.75 1.23
Over 2.0 1.28
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.69
Over 2.75 1.86
Over 3.0 2.08
Over 3.25 2.36
Over 3.5 2.59
Over 3.75 3.12
Over 4.0 4.00
Over 4.25 4.36
Over 4.5 4.70
Over 4.75 5.90
Over 5.0 8.20
Over 5.5 8.80
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 11.70
Under 0.75 9.10
Under 1.0 8.60
Under 1.25 5.52
Under 1.5 3.98
Under 1.75 3.57
Under 2.0 3.18
Under 2.25 2.46
Under 2.5 2.11
Under 2.75 1.89
Under 3.0 1.63
Under 3.25 1.52
Under 3.5 1.39
Under 3.75 1.30
Under 4.0 1.17
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 4.75 1.07
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 3.85
Home 1.63
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.90
Draw 2.38
Home 2.15
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.65
Home 1.98
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.0 1.33
Over 2.25 1.53
Over 2.5 1.72
Over 2.75 1.90
Over 3.0 2.20
Over 3.25 2.48
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 3.75 3.30
Over 4.0 4.30
Over 4.25 4.60
Over 4.5 4.90
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.0 3.00
Under 2.25 2.30
Under 2.5 1.97
Under 2.75 1.77
Under 3.0 1.57
Under 3.25 1.45
Under 3.5 1.38
Under 3.75 1.27
Under 4.0 1.17
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.13

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W D W W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
L W D L W
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
L L W D L
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W W W D L
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W W W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
L W W W L
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W L W D W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
W L L D W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
D D L D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L L L W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W L W D W
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L W L
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D L D D L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
D D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
L D D D W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
L W W L W
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
W L L D L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
W D L D L
Play-offs