26.07.2026 01:00
Estadio de la UNSA
Referee: Michael Espinoza, Peru
FBC Melgar
Match Timeline
Sporting Cristal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
N. Quagliata
FBC Melgar
🟨
29'
Kevin Minda
FBC Melgar
🟨
39'
Catriel Cabellos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
L. Iberico ↔ S. Gonzalez
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
J. Gonzalez ↔ R. Lutiger
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
C. Cabellos ↔ I. Wisdom
Sporting Cristal
VAR
51'
Michael Hoyos
Sporting Cristal
VAR
59'
Matías Lazo
FBC Melgar
🟨
61'
Rafael Lutiger
Sporting Cristal
62'
J. Vidales
FBC Melgar
🔄
65'
M. Hoyos ↔ I. Avila
Sporting Cristal
🔄
65'
M. Tavara ↔ H. Barcos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
72'
C. Bordacahar ↔ J. Caceres
FBC Melgar
76'
I. Avila · Assist: M. Castro
Sporting Cristal
🔄
77'
J. Vidales ↔ M. Zegarra
FBC Melgar
🔄
87'
N. Quagliata ↔ J. D'Arrigo
FBC Melgar
🔄
87'
N. Cabanillas ↔ M. Portillo
FBC Melgar
🟨
89'
Yoshimar Yotún
Sporting Cristal

FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.6%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 85.6%
Draw 5.2%
Sporting Cristal Win 9.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.63
Sporting Cristal1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
39 GF / 26 GA
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WLDWL
42 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
16
BTTS Yes
19
13
Over 2.5
18
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 23 matches
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 29 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic Sporting Cristal
11 Wins 10
6 Draws 6
6 Losses 13
39 Goals For 42
26 Goals Against 44
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
16 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 4
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.82
14.11 Total Shots 14.61
4.83 Corners 5.5
53.7% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights FBC Melgar's more proactive style and Sporting Cristal's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sporting Cristal.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 28 points after 17 outings. With 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 29:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Jhonny Vidales (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

Sporting Cristal sit 12 with 19 points after 17 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 28:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Gustavo Cazonatti (3 goals), Felipe Vizeu (3 goals), Yoshimar Yotún (2 goals), with creative support from Yoshimar Yotún (4 assists), Maxloren Castro (1 assists), Gabriel Santana (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 8 times, Sporting Cristal won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:10 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1 / Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 8, draws 2, Sporting Cristal wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2