SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Falkirk Stadium
Referee: D. McFarlane
Falkirk
Match Timeline
Motherwell
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Ben Broggio
Falkirk
🟨
29'
Brad Spencer
Falkirk
🟨
35'
Tom Sparrow
Motherwell
🟨
50'
Callum Slattery
Motherwell
🟨
55'
Dylan Tait
Falkirk
🔄
62'
D. Tait ↔ H. Cartwright
Falkirk
🔄
62'
T. Sparrow ↔ I. Said
Motherwell
63'
H. Cartwright · Assist: B. Broggio
Falkirk
🟨
75'
Finn Yeats
Falkirk
🔄
75'
B. Broggio ↔ K. Wilson
Falkirk
🔄
76'
C. Miller ↔ B. Parkinson
Falkirk
🔄
76'
C. Slattery ↔ R. Charles-Cook
Motherwell
🔄
76'
T. Maswanhise ↔ C. Hendry
Motherwell
🔄
77'
L. Fadinger ↔ S. Nicholson
Motherwell
🔄
84'
L. McCann ↔ C. Donaldson
Falkirk
🔄
85'
F. Lissah ↔ K. Adams
Falkirk
🟨
88'
Emmanuel Longelo
Motherwell
🟨
90+2'
Elijah Just
Motherwell
🟨
90+1'
Callum Hendry
Motherwell

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Falkirk Win 34.9%
Draw 16.6%
Motherwell Win 48.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Falkirk1.17
Motherwell1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Falkirk Falkirk
WWDLW
46 GF / 51 GA
Motherwell Motherwell
WLDWL
55 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
18
BTTS Yes
16
19
Over 2.5
14
3.94
Shots on Goal
4.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Falkirk Falkirk 34 matches
Motherwell Motherwell 34 matches
Falkirk Statistic Motherwell
13 Wins 15
7 Draws 12
14 Losses 7
46 Goals For 55
51 Goals Against 31
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
18 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 27
19 Over 2.5 14
11 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 17
10 Failed To Score 6
3.94 Shots On Goal 4.94
12.06 Total Shots 13.24
4.76 Corners 3.85
50.7% Ball Possession 58.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Motherwell's more proactive style and Falkirk's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Motherwell.

Falkirk Analysis

Falkirk approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 46 points from 34 matches. Across the season they have posted 13 wins, 7 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 46:51 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Stewart (8 goals), C. Miller (6 goals), B. Broggio (4 goals), with creative support from C. Miller (9 assists), E. Williams (3 assists), Leon McCann (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Motherwell Analysis

Motherwell sit 4 with 57 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 15 wins, 12 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 55:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Maswanhise (17 goals), E. Longelo (8 goals), E. Just (7 goals), with creative support from C. Slattery (8 assists), E. Just (7 assists), E. Longelo (4 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Falkirk won 3 times, Motherwell won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Falkirk's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.4%)
Predicted formations: Falkirk 4-2-3-1 / Motherwell 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Falkirk wins 3, draws 1, Motherwell wins 0
Stats
Falkirk Falkirk
Motherwell Motherwell
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
2 Corner Kicks 5
12 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 4
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Goal 3
9 Shots off Goal 7
4 Blocked Shots 4
14 Shots insidebox 10
4 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
422 Total passes 444
344 Passes accurate 351
1.88 expected_goals 1.06
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Falkirk
Formation
Motherwell
N. Hogarth
N. Hogarth
F. Lissah
F. Lissah
L. Neilson
L. Neilson
C. Allan
C. Allan
L. McCann
L. McCann
B. Spencer
B. Spencer
D. Tait
D. Tait
B. Broggio
🎯
B. Broggio
F. Yeats
F. Yeats
C. Miller
C. Miller
B. Stewart
B. Stewart
C. Ward
C. Ward
T. Sparrow
T. Sparrow
P. McGinn
P. McGinn
S. Welsh
S. Welsh
S. O'Donnell
S. O'Donnell
L. Fadinger
L. Fadinger
E. Watt
E. Watt
T. Maswanhise
T. Maswanhise
C. Slattery
C. Slattery
E. Longelo
E. Longelo
E. Just
E. Just
Falkirk 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
N. Hogarth
G
28
F. Lissah
↓ 85'
D
15
L. Neilson
D
20
C. Allan
D
3
L. McCann
↓ 84'
D
8
B. Spencer
🟨 29'
M
21
D. Tait
↓ 62' 🟨 55'
M
11
B. Broggio
🎯 63' ↓ 75' 🟨 28'
M
14
F. Yeats
🟨 75'
M
29
C. Miller
↓ 76'
M
16
B. Stewart
F
Substitutes
35
J. Hastings
G
9
R. MacIver
F
23
E. Ross
F
27
B. Parkinson
↑ 76'
F
22
K. Wilson
↑ 75'
F
7
B. Graham
F
6
C. Donaldson
↑ 84'
D
17
H. Cartwright
⚽ 63' ↑ 62'
M
2
K. Adams
↑ 85'
D
Motherwell 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
C. Ward
G
7
T. Sparrow
↓ 62' 🟨 35'
D
16
P. McGinn
D
57
S. Welsh
D
2
S. O'Donnell
D
12
L. Fadinger
↓ 77'
M
20
E. Watt
M
18
T. Maswanhise
↓ 76'
M
8
C. Slattery
↓ 76' 🟨 50'
M
45
E. Longelo
🟨 88'
M
21
E. Just
🟨 90+2'
F
Substitutes
31
Matty Connelly
G
77
R. Charles-Cook
↑ 76'
F
22
J. Koutroumbis
D
66
C. Hendry
↑ 76' 🟨 90+1'
F
90
I. Said
↑ 62'
F
25
O. Priestman
M
28
L. Ross
F
4
L. Gordon
D
19
S. Nicholson
↑ 77'
F
Last matches: Falkirk
18.07.26
Fri
Falkirk
Genk
1
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Falkirk
Airdrie United
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pre
Falkirk
Rangers
2
5
L
13.05.26
Pre
Falkirk
Heart Of Midlothian
0
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Falkirk
Hibernian
1
3
L
25.04.26
Pre
Falkirk
Celtic
1
3
L
12.04.26
Pre
Falkirk
Rangers
3
6
L
04.04.26
Pre
Falkirk
Motherwell
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pre
Falkirk
ST Mirren
1
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Falkirk
Aberdeen
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Kilmarnock
5
1
W
21.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Dundee
1
0
W
04.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Livingston
2
1
W
01.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Celtic
0
2
L
24.01.26
Pre
Falkirk
Hibernian
4
1
W
14.01.26
Pre
Falkirk
Celtic
0
1
L
10.01.26
Pre
Falkirk
ST Mirren
2
0
W
03.01.26
Pre
Falkirk
Aberdeen
1
0
W
Last matches: Motherwell
23.07.26
UEF
Motherwell
HB Torshavn
2
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Motherwell
Genk
3
4
L
05.07.26
Fri
Motherwell
Aarhus
0
4
L
16.05.26
Pre
Motherwell
Hibernian
1
0
W
13.05.26
Pre
Motherwell
Celtic
2
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Motherwell
Heart Of Midlothian
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pre
Motherwell
Rangers
3
2
W
11.04.26
Pre
Motherwell
Heart Of Midlothian
1
3
L
04.04.26
Pre
Motherwell
Falkirk
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Motherwell
Hibernian
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pre
Motherwell
Celtic
1
3
L
07.03.26
Pre
Motherwell
Dundee
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
21.02.26
Pre
Motherwell
ST Mirren
5
0
W
15.02.26
Pre
Motherwell
Aberdeen
2
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Motherwell
Rangers
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pre
Motherwell
Livingston
2
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Motherwell
Kilmarnock
4
0
W
10.01.26
Pre
Motherwell
Hibernian
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Motherwell
ST Mirren
2
0
W
H2H: Falkirk vs Motherwell
02.05.26
H2H
Falkirk
Motherwell
1
0
W
04.04.26
H2H
Motherwell
Falkirk
2
3
W
03.12.25
H2H
Falkirk
Motherwell
0
0
D
18.10.25
H2H
Motherwell
Falkirk
1
2
W
Last matches: Falkirk
18.07.26
Fri
Falkirk
Genk
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pre
Falkirk
Rangers
2
5
L
09.05.26
Pre
Falkirk
Hibernian
1
3
L
12.04.26
Pre
Falkirk
Rangers
3
6
L
21.03.26
Pre
Falkirk
ST Mirren
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Kilmarnock
5
1
W
14.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Falkirk
Dundee
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Falkirk
Hibernian
4
1
W
14.01.26
Pre
Falkirk
Celtic
0
1
L
03.01.26
Pre
Falkirk
Aberdeen
1
0
W
13.12.25
Pre
Falkirk
Heart Of Midlothian
0
2
L
03.12.25
Pre
Falkirk
Motherwell
0
0
D
08.11.25
Pre
Falkirk
Livingston
1
1
D
01.11.25
Pre
Falkirk
Kilmarnock
3
1
W
25.10.25
Pre
Falkirk
Dundee
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pre
Falkirk
Rangers
1
1
D
23.09.25
Pre
Falkirk
Hibernian
2
2
D
13.09.25
Pre
Falkirk
ST Mirren
1
2
L
03.08.25
Pre
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
2
2
D
H2H at home: Falkirk
02.05.26
H2H
Falkirk
Motherwell
1
0
W
03.12.25
H2H
Falkirk
Motherwell
0
0
D
Last matches: Motherwell
05.07.26
Fri
Motherwell
Aarhus
0
4
L
16.05.26
Pre
Motherwell
Hibernian
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pre
Motherwell
Rangers
3
2
W
11.04.26
Pre
Motherwell
Heart Of Midlothian
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Motherwell
Celtic
1
3
L
07.03.26
Pre
Motherwell
Dundee
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Motherwell
ST Mirren
5
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Motherwell
Livingston
2
0
W
10.01.26
Pre
Motherwell
Hibernian
1
1
D
27.12.25
Pre
Motherwell
Rangers
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
0
0
D
03.12.25
Pre
Motherwell
Falkirk
0
0
D
22.11.25
Pre
Motherwell
Kilmarnock
3
1
W
09.11.25
Pre
Motherwell
Aberdeen
1
1
D
25.10.25
Pre
Motherwell
Livingston
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pre
Motherwell
Celtic
2
3
L
13.09.25
Pre
Motherwell
Dundee
1
1
D
23.08.25
Pre
Motherwell
Heart Of Midlothian
3
3
D
09.08.25
Pre
Motherwell
ST Mirren
0
0
D
H2H away: Motherwell
02.05.26
H2H
Falkirk
Motherwell
1
0
L
03.12.25
H2H
Falkirk
Motherwell
0
0
D

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round