JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
City Light Stadium
Referee: K. Fukushima
Fagiano Okayama
Match Timeline
Shimizu S-pulse
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
K. Shirai · Assist: Werik Popo
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
60'
T. Takahashi ↔ K. Chiba
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
60'
K. Kitazume ↔ H. Hidaka
Shimizu S-pulse
🟨
63'
Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
65'
T. Kimura ↔ Lucao
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
65'
Werik Popo ↔ Leo Gaucho
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
70'
K. Matsuzaki ↔ K. Kozuka
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
74'
A. Esaka ↔ J. Nishikawa
Fagiano Okayama
79'
Leo Gaucho · Assist: Lucao
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
82'
Y. Shimamoto ↔ A. Ahmedov
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
85'
K. Shirai ↔ N. Browne
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
85'
T. Yamane ↔ H. Motoyama
Fagiano Okayama

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fagiano Okayama Win 40%
Draw 18%
Shimizu S-pulse Win 42%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fagiano Okayama1.11
Shimizu S-pulse1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WWDLW
20 GF / 23 GA
Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse
WLDWL
22 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1
11
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
6
3.19
Shots on Goal
3.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 17 matches
Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 18 matches
Fagiano Okayama Statistic Shimizu S-pulse
5 Wins 6
6 Draws 8
6 Losses 4
20 Goals For 22
23 Goals Against 18
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1
11 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
3.19 Shots On Goal 3.31
11.38 Total Shots 11.06
5.13 Corners 4.69
40.5% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Shimizu S-pulse's more proactive style and Fagiano Okayama's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Shimizu S-pulse. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Fagiano Okayama come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

Fagiano Okayama sit 7 with 23 points after 16 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 22:26 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Esaka (3 goals), Takaya Kimura (3 goals), Werik Popo (3 goals), with creative support from A. Esaka (3 assists), K. Shirai (3 assists), Towa Yamane (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Shimizu S-pulse Analysis

So far, Shimizu S-pulse have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 24 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 22:21 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by Oh Se-Hun (7 goals), Y. Shimamoto (3 goals), K. Kitagawa (2 goals), with creative support from Yutaka Yoshida (2 assists), Z. Uno (2 assists), Oh Se-Hun (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Fagiano Okayama won 2 times, Shimizu S-pulse won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:12 from Fagiano Okayama's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82%)
Predicted formations: Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1 / Shimizu S-pulse 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Fagiano Okayama wins 2, draws 4, Shimizu S-pulse wins 4
Stats
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
4
2 Corner Kicks 4
9 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Goal 2
5 Shots off Goal 5
2 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
274 Total passes 409
158 Passes accurate 316
1.18 expected_goals 1.04
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Fagiano Okayama
Formation
Shimizu S-pulse
T. Hamada
T. Hamada
H. Omori
H. Omori
Y. Tatsuta
Y. Tatsuta
Y. Suzuki
Y. Suzuki
K. Shirai
K. Shirai
E. Miyamoto
E. Miyamoto
K. Ogura
K. Ogura
T. Yamane
T. Yamane
T. Kimura
T. Kimura
A. Esaka
A. Esaka
Werik Popo
🎯
Werik Popo
Y. Oki
Y. Oki
K. Kitazume
K. Kitazume
J. Sumiyoshi
J. Sumiyoshi
Y. Honda
Y. Honda
M. Brunetti
M. Brunetti
Z. Uno
Z. Uno
Matheus Bueno
Matheus Bueno
Y. Shimamoto
Y. Shimamoto
T. Takahashi
T. Takahashi
Oh Se-Hun
Oh Se-Hun
K. Matsuzaki
K. Matsuzaki
Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
52
T. Hamada
G
6
H. Omori
D
48
Y. Tatsuta
D
43
Y. Suzuki
D
51
K. Shirai
⚽ 11' ↓ 85'
M
41
E. Miyamoto
M
5
K. Ogura
M
88
T. Yamane
↓ 85'
M
27
T. Kimura
↓ 65'
F
8
A. Esaka
↓ 74'
F
98
Werik Popo
🎯 11' ↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
1
L. Moser
G
28
M. Matsumoto
M
99
Lucao
🎯 79' ↑ 65'
F
4
K. Abe
D
66
J. Nishikawa
↑ 74'
M
40
K. Kawano
F
45
N. Browne
↑ 85'
M
9
Leo Gaucho
⚽ 79' ↑ 65'
26
H. Motoyama
↑ 85'
D
Shimizu S-pulse 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Y. Oki
G
5
K. Kitazume
↓ 60'
D
51
J. Sumiyoshi
🟨 63'
D
15
Y. Honda
D
25
M. Brunetti
D
6
Z. Uno
M
10
Matheus Bueno
M
47
Y. Shimamoto
↓ 82'
M
38
T. Takahashi
↓ 60'
F
9
Oh Se-Hun
F
21
K. Matsuzaki
↓ 70'
F
Substitutes
16
T. Umeda
G
29
A. Ahmedov
↑ 82'
F
81
K. Kozuka
↑ 70'
M
23
K. Chiba
↑ 60'
F
28
Y. Yoshida
D
4
S. Hasukawa
D
17
M. Yumiba
M
97
R. Ohata
M
39
H. Hidaka
↑ 60'
D
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
25.07.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
FC Schalke 04
1
3
L
22.07.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
Werder Bremen
0
2
L
21.07.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2
1
W
17.07.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
SC Paderborn 07
1
3
L
14.07.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
SV Wehen
0
2
L
06.06.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
2
0
W
31.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
10.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
1
2
L
02.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
5
L
05.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
1
4
L
21.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
18.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
08.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
Last matches: Shimizu S-pulse
18.07.26
Fri
Shimizu S-pulse
Karlsruher SC
3
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Shimizu S-pulse
Polessya
3
1
W
06.06.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Yokohama F. Marinos
0
3
L
31.05.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Gamba Osaka
1
2
L
10.05.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
06.05.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D
02.05.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
1
2
L
25.04.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Nagoya Grampus
0
2
L
11.04.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
3
0
W
01.04.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Vissel Kobe
0
2
L
22.03.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3
1
W
18.03.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
14.03.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
28.02.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Gamba Osaka
2
2
D
21.02.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Vissel Kobe
1
0
W
14.02.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
H2H: Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse
17.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
14.03.26
H2H
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
06.12.25
H2H
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
1
2
W
02.03.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
30.06.24
H2H
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
3
1
L
28.04.24
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
0
1
L
29.07.23
H2H
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
L
26.02.23
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
12.11.16
H2H
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
L
03.07.16
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
2
D
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
31.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
02.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
25.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
05.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
1
4
L
21.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
08.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
01.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
22.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Fagiano Okayama
17.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
02.03.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
28.04.24
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
0
1
L
26.02.23
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
03.07.16
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
2
D
Last matches: Shimizu S-pulse
18.07.26
Fri
Shimizu S-pulse
Karlsruher SC
3
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Shimizu S-pulse
Polessya
3
1
W
06.06.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Yokohama F. Marinos
0
3
L
02.05.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
11.04.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
3
0
W
01.04.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Vissel Kobe
0
2
L
18.03.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
28.02.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Gamba Osaka
2
2
D
08.02.26
J1
Shimizu S-pulse
Nagoya Grampus
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Shimizu S-pulse
Jubilo Iwata
2
0
W
H2H away: Shimizu S-pulse
17.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
L
02.03.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
28.04.24
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
0
1
W
26.02.23
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
03.07.16
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
2
D

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)