UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Hamz Stadium
Express
Match Timeline
NEC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
90+1'
I. Kisuule
Express

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
58.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
53.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Express Win 42.1%
Draw 11.7%
NEC Win 46.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Express0.86
NEC1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Express Express
WWDLW
22 GF / 23 GA
NEC NEC
WLDWL
25 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
7
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Express Express 23 matches
NEC NEC 23 matches
Express Statistic NEC
7 Wins 10
8 Draws 10
8 Losses 3
22 Goals For 25
23 Goals Against 16
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
7 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 12
13 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between NEC's more proactive style and Express's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. NEC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward NEC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors NEC. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Express Analysis

So far, Express have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 29 points from 23 matches. The record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 21:23 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. K. Ssenoga (8 goals), R. Basangwa (5 goals), H. Asiimwe (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

NEC Analysis

So far, NEC have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 40 points from 23 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 24:16 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Dhata (3 goals), J. Seremba (2 goals), M. Kizza (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Express won 2 times, NEC won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:8 from Express's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.83 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)
H2H summary: Express wins 2, draws 2, NEC wins 2

Lineups

No lineup data available
Last matches: Express
23.05.26
Pre
Express
Vipers
0
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
Express
Lugazi
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Express
Kitara
3
2
W
08.05.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
Express
Mbarara City
1
2
L
24.04.26
Pre
Express
BUL
0
2
L
15.04.26
Pre
Express
UPDF
1
0
W
08.04.26
Pre
Express
Police
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Express
URA
3
1
W
11.03.26
Pre
Express
KCCA
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
0
D
04.03.26
Pre
Express
Maroons
1
1
D
18.02.26
Pre
Express
Calvary
0
0
D
14.02.26
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
Express
NEC
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
Express
Kitara
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
3
1
W
08.01.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Express
Maroons
0
4
L
11.12.25
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
Last matches: NEC
23.05.26
Pre
NEC
Calvary
0
2
L
20.05.26
Pre
NEC
SC Villa
1
4
L
09.05.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pre
NEC
Maroons
1
0
W
09.04.26
Pre
NEC
URA
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
NEC
Police
1
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
2
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
NEC
UPDF
1
0
W
17.02.26
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
NEC
KCCA
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
NEC
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
NEC
UPDF
0
0
D
12.12.25
Pre
NEC
KCCA
1
2
L
05.12.25
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
H2H: Express vs NEC
21.04.26
H2H
Express
NEC
0
0
D
31.01.26
H2H
NEC
Express
0
0
D
27.03.25
H2H
NEC
Express
3
1
L
03.10.24
H2H
Express
NEC
2
1
W
13.05.24
H2H
Express
NEC
1
2
L
21.12.23
H2H
NEC
Express
2
5
W
Last matches: Express
19.05.26
Pre
Express
Lugazi
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Express
Kitara
3
2
W
24.04.26
Pre
Express
BUL
0
2
L
08.04.26
Pre
Express
Police
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Express
URA
3
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Express
Maroons
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
3
1
W
08.01.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
Express
Calvary
4
0
W
26.11.25
Pre
Express
Vipers
0
3
L
05.11.25
Pre
Express
Mbarara City
4
1
W
23.10.25
Pre
Express
KCCA
0
1
L
26.09.25
Pre
Express
UPDF
1
0
W
H2H at home: Express
21.04.26
H2H
Express
NEC
0
0
D
03.10.24
H2H
Express
NEC
2
1
W
13.05.24
H2H
Express
NEC
1
2
L
Last matches: NEC
23.05.26
Pre
NEC
Calvary
0
2
L
09.05.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
NEC
Police
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
2
0
W
17.02.26
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pre
NEC
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
NEC
UPDF
0
0
D
12.12.25
Pre
NEC
KCCA
1
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
NEC
Maroons
1
1
D
20.11.25
Pre
NEC
SC Villa
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
1
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
02.10.25
Pre
NEC
URA
1
1
D
H2H away: NEC
21.04.26
H2H
Express
NEC
0
0
D
03.10.24
H2H
Express
NEC
2
1
L
13.05.24
H2H
Express
NEC
1
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6
NEC Away
30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L