Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 71.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
71.7%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes de Merida FC Win 50%
Draw 21.7%
UCV Win 28.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes de Merida FC1.33
UCV1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes de Merida FC Estudiantes de Merida FC
WWDLW
28 GF / 32 GA
UCV UCV
WLDWL
44 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
11
BTTS Yes
18
11
Over 2.5
19
0
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes de Merida FC Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 matches
UCV UCV 32 matches
Estudiantes de Merida FC Statistic UCV
9 Wins 12
4 Draws 6
11 Losses 14
28 Goals For 44
32 Goals Against 50
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
11 BTTS Yes 18
17 Over 1.5 27
11 Over 2.5 19
5 Over 3.5 10
4 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 3.5
0 Total Shots 10.83
0 Corners 1.5
0% Ball Possession 38.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring UCV. UCV arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward UCV having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Estudiantes de Merida FC Analysis

Estudiantes de Merida FC sit 6 with 20 points after 13 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, while the 21:18 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

UCV Analysis

UCV approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 23 points from 13 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 24:20, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes de Merida FC won 3 times, UCV won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:11 from Estudiantes de Merida FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.56 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.3%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes de Merida FC 4-3-3 / UCV 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estudiantes de Merida FC wins 3, draws 2, UCV wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 14 5 3 35:18 17 47
W W W D W
2 22 12 7 3 34:17 17 43
L W D L W
3 22 13 4 5 36:23 13 43
L W W D L
4 22 10 5 7 31:27 4 35
W L D W D
5 22 8 10 4 31:21 10 34
D D D D D
6
UCV Away
22 10 4 8 34:30 4 34
W D D W L
7 22 8 9 5 33:21 12 33
W W L D D
8 22 8 8 6 28:21 7 32
L D D W D
9 21 5 10 6 23:26 -3 25
W D D D W
10 22 6 7 9 23:31 -8 25
L D L D W
11 22 6 3 13 25:43 -18 21
D L W L L
12 21 5 3 13 23:34 -11 18
L W L D L
13 22 3 5 14 18:39 -21 14
W L L W D
14 22 3 4 15 20:43 -23 13
L L L L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga FUTVE 2