PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
16.05.2026 19:30
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota
Referee: M. Nogueira
Estoril
Match Timeline
Benfica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
R. Rios
Benfica
⚽
15'
A. Bah · Assist: T. Araujo
Benfica
⚽
16'
Rafa Silva · Assist: G. Prestianni
Benfica
🟨
22'
Gonçalo Costa
Estoril
🔄
46'
G. Costa ↔ P. Amaral
Estoril
🔄
46'
Ferro ↔ K. Boma
Estoril
🟨
47'
Alexander Bah
Benfica
🟨
52'
André Lacximicant
Estoril
🔄
58'
Pizzi ↔ R. Guitane
Estoril
🟨
65'
Rafik Guitane
Estoril
🟨
68'
Gianluca Prestianni
Benfica
🔄
68'
A. Lacximicant ↔ Peixinho
Estoril
🔄
68'
Rafa Silva ↔ L. Barreiro
Benfica
🔄
68'
G. Prestianni ↔ D. Lukebakio
Benfica
🔄
68'
A. Bah ↔ A. Dedic
Benfica
🔄
78'
Xeka ↔ N. Lominadze
Estoril
🔄
80'
F. Aursnes ↔ Manu
Benfica
🔄
84'
A. Schjelderup ↔ Bruma
Benfica
⚽
90'
Peixinho · Assist: K. Boma
Estoril

Estoril vs Benfica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Estoril Win 17.8%
Draw 0%
Benfica Win 82.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estoril1.3
Benfica1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estoril Estoril
WWDLW
53 GF / 54 GA
Benfica Benfica
WLDWL
87 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
19
BTTS Yes
22
20
Over 2.5
27
4
Shots on Goal
5.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estoril Estoril 33 matches
Benfica Benfica 47 matches
Estoril Statistic Benfica
10 Wins 28
9 Draws 12
14 Losses 7
53 Goals For 87
54 Goals Against 39
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
19 BTTS Yes 22
25 Over 1.5 38
20 Over 2.5 27
17 Over 3.5 12
5 Clean Sheets 20
10 Failed To Score 8
4 Shots On Goal 5.53
11.52 Total Shots 16.04
4.45 Corners 6.62
52.8% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Benfica's more proactive style and Estoril's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Benfica. Benfica carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 77 points while Estoril sit 9 on 39, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Estoril have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Estoril expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Benfica in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Benfica having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Estoril Analysis

With 39 points from 33 games and a place of 9, Estoril still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats with a 53:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Y. Begraoui (20 goals), João Carvalho (6 goals), Alejandro Marqués (4 goals), with creative support from João Carvalho (11 assists), Jordan Holsgrove (7 assists), R. Guitane (5 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Benfica Analysis

Benfica come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 77 points after 33 matches. With 22 wins, 11 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 71:24, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by V. Pavlidis (22 goals), A. Schjelderup (7 goals), F. Ivanovic (6 goals), with creative support from A. Schjelderup (5 assists), L. Barreiro (5 assists), V. Pavlidis (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 11 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Estoril won 0 times, Benfica won 13 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:33 from Estoril's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Estoril 3-4-2-1 / Benfica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estoril wins 0, draws 2, Benfica wins 13

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2