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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
17.10.2026 18:45
Stade de l'Aube
Referee: Hakim Ben el Hadj

Estac Troyes vs Lens Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 46.4%
Odds 1.85
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.61
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
46.4%
1.85 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.61 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.27 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Estac Troyes Win 36.4%
Draw 17.3%
Lens Win 46.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estac Troyes1.54
Lens1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estac Troyes Estac Troyes
WWDLW
20 GF / 20 GA
Lens Lens
WLDWL
24 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
7
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
9
2.83
Shots on Goal
6.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 13 matches
Lens Lens 13 matches
Estac Troyes Statistic Lens
5 Wins 6
4 Draws 2
4 Losses 5
20 Goals For 24
20 Goals Against 20
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
7 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 3
2.83 Shots On Goal 6.63
14.83 Total Shots 17
7.33 Corners 7.13
38.8% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lens's more proactive style and Estac Troyes's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lens. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Estac Troyes expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Lens in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lens having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lens carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 7 points while Estac Troyes sit 16 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Estac Troyes Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 16, Estac Troyes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 4:11, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Mille (1 goals), R. Ripart (1 goals), L. Maronnier (1 goals), with creative support from A. Mille (1 assists), A. Ouzenadji (1 assists), K. Diawara (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lens Analysis

With 7 points from 6 games and a place of 7, Lens still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 11:10 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Thauvin (3 goals), M. Udol (2 goals), F. Ivanović (2 goals), with creative support from F. Thauvin (4 assists), A. Sima (1 assists), R. Aguilar (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Estac Troyes won 3 times, Lens won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:21 from Estac Troyes's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Estac Troyes 4-2-3-1 / Lens 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Estac Troyes wins 3, draws 3, Lens wins 9

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 10:5 5 14
D W D W W
2 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W L W W D
3 6 4 1 1 12:10 2 13
W L W W W
4 6 3 2 1 11:4 7 11
L W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L W D W W
6 6 3 2 1 11:8 3 11
W W W L D
7 6 2 2 2 12:9 3 8
W L L W D
8 6 2 2 2 6:6 0 8
W L D W L
9 6 2 2 2 5:7 -2 8
W W L D L
10
Lens Away
6 2 1 3 11:10 1 7
W L D L L
11 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
L L D W W
12 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
L W D L W
13 6 2 0 4 9:8 1 6
W L L L L
14 6 1 3 2 10:12 -2 6
L W D D L
15 6 1 3 2 9:11 -2 6
D W D L D
16 6 2 0 4 8:16 -8 6
L W W L L
17 6 1 1 4 4:13 -9 4
L L L L W
18 6 0 2 4 4:8 -4 2
L L D L D
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